Santorum Campaign Enters Maybe Could Purgatory

Maybe Rick Santorum's loss to Mitt Romney in Illinois doesn't finish off the Santorum campaign, but it could be the beginning of the end. Yes, there are several states he maybe could still win and then he maybe could prolong his campaign into late May or June before he is mathematically eliminated. He maybe could even stop Romney from getting a majority of delegates and force a brokered convention.

Illinois is a state Santorum maybe could have won, if he had not taken a couple of days off for a lame-brained campaign swing through Puerto Rico. But more importantly Illinois illustrates Santorum's demographic problem. He can win rural Republicans but he can't win suburban Republicans, let alone win the independents that Republicans will need for the general election in November.

So even if Santorum maybe could force a brokered convention, it's not likely the convention would choose him. Santorum may get a bump from a win in Louisiana this Saturday and there will be a lot of mainstream media attention on Wisconsin on April 3rd. But his prospects for Maryland and Washington, DC that also vote on April 3rd look bleak, and Rick Santorum needs every win he maybe could get to maintain the pretense he maybe could still win.

The scoreboard:

# of delegates secured so far	NYT	WSJ	CNN	CBS	MSNBC	RCP
Mitt Romney	563	563	562	534	485	560
Rick Santorum	263	263	249	228	193	246
Newt Gingrich	135	135	137	120	137	141
Ron Paul	50	50	69	42	34	66
Jon Huntsman	2	2	0	2	0	0
Total	1013	1013	1017	926	849	1013
% of delegates secured so far
Mitt Romney	56%	56%	55%	58%	57%	55%
Rick Santorum	26%	26%	24%	25%	23%	24%
Newt Gingrich	13%	13%	13%	13%	16%	14%
Ron Paul	5%	5%	7%	5%	4%	7%
% of remaining needed to clinch:
Mitt Romney	46%	46%	46%	45%	46%	46%
Rick Santorum	69%	69%	71%	67%	66%	71%
Newt Gingrich	79%	79%	79%	75%	70%	79%
Ron Paul	86%	86%	85%	81%	77%	85%

On most scorecards Mitt Romney has just short of half the 1144 delegates he needs to clinch the nomination and it's still two weeks away from the April 3rd halfway mark in the delegate selection process.

However, it does appear Romney's earliest clinch date is now May 22. The earliest date all of his challengers can be mathematically eliminated is April 24. The problem for Rick Santorum and the other challengers is that they may feel they can't quit on their supporters while there is any slender hope of winning, and that means another month or two of purgatory. Because in a field of three or four, winning 66% or more of the remaining delegates is just not realistic.