Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Newt Gingrich from Sea to Shining Sea Sinkhole

Newt Gingrich put all his hopes on marching across the Southern tier of states from sea to shining sea. He won in neighborly South Carolina (January 21) and then in his home state of Georgia (March 6). He hoped to win Alabama and Mississippi (March 13). Then Louisiana (March 24) and Texas (May 29) would fall to Newt's advance, followed by New Mexico and California (June 5). That would have cut quite a swath across America.

But Newt's March to the Sea has fallen into a sinkhole. With the Santorum wins in Alabama and Mississippi, he's now on Newt's flanks going into Louisiana. It's game on for Rick Santorum.

Newt Gingrich shows no signs of dropping out of the race. Whether he does or not, he has about run out of Southern states he can win. Forget Louisiana, those Cajuns are Catholic and will likely vote for Santorum. Forget Texas, it will vote its pocketbook and that's not $2.50 gasoline. There's Arkansas and Kentucky coming up on May 22, but that's more than two months away. The last remotely realistic chance for Newt Gingrich just disappeared into that Alabama and Mississippi sinkhole.

"Who is getting the biscuits tonight?" That's the question put by Evi L. Bloggerlady. While Mitt Romney lost the main events to Rick Santorum, Mitt picked up more loose change in Hawaii and American Samoa after everyone in the continental U.S. had gone to bed. Biscuits for breakfast taste just as good.

The scoreboard:

# of delegates secured so far NYT WSJ CNN CBS MSNBC RCP
Mitt Romney 495 495 498 468 419 496
Rick Santorum 252 252 239 217 184 236
Newt Gingrich 131 131 139 117 136 141
Ron Paul 48 48 69 41 34 67
Jon Huntsman 2 2 0 2 0 0
Total 928 928 945 845 773 940
         
% of delegates secured so far        
Mitt Romney 53% 53% 53% 55% 54% 53%
Rick Santorum 27% 27% 25% 26% 24% 25%
Newt Gingrich 14% 14% 15% 14% 18% 15%
Ron Paul 5% 5% 7% 5% 4% 7%
         
% of remaining needed to clinch:        
Mitt Romney 48% 48% 48% 47% 48% 48%
Rick Santorum 66% 66% 67% 64% 63% 67%
Newt Gingrich 75% 75% 75% 71% 67% 75%
Ron Paul 81% 81% 80% 77% 73% 80%


Like this stubborn goat, Newt Gingrich just won't give up the fight.

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