Friday, March 23, 2012

The Republican Bragging Rights Primary

The Republican Presidential Primary may be all over except for the shouting and etch a sketching. But there is also the question of bragging rights. That is, who gets the most votes in the remaining primaries matters, even if it is only for the history books.

Second place rarely gets you the VP slot, the exception being George H.W. Bush in 1980. More frequently second place leads to first place in the next contested primary. Third place gets you nothing, except for Earl Warren who way back in 1952 got the U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justiceship.

For Mitt Romney the question is whether he finishes with a middling 7 or 8 million votes or can push that up to a more respectable 9 or 10 million votes. Also, with not quite half the vote in, it looks to be a close question whether total Republican turnout in 2012 will top 2008.

Year Candidate Votes  
2012 Mitt Romney 4,070,110 +
2012 Rick Santorum 2,758,186 +
2012 Newt Gingrich 2,182,075 +
2012 Ron Paul 1,068,148 +
       
2008 John McCain 9,838,910  
2008 Mitt Romney 4,681,436  
2008 Mike Huckabee 4,281,900  
2008 Ron Paul 1,163,078  
       
2000 George W. Bush 12,034,676  
2000 John McCain 6,061,332  
2000 Alan Keyes 985,819  
       
1996 Bob Dole 9,024,742  
1996 Pat Buchanan 3,184,943  
1996 Steve Forbes 1,751,187  
       
1992 George H.W. Bush 9,199,463  
1992 Pat Buchanan 2,899,488  
       
1988 George H.W. Bush 8,253,512  
1988 Bob Dole 2,333,375  
1988 Pat Robertson 1,097,446  
       
1980 Ronald Reagan 7,709,793  
1980 George H.W. Bush 3,070,033  
1980 John Anderson 1,572,174  
       
1976 Gerald Ford 5,529,899  
1976 Ronald Reagan 4,760,222  
       
1968 Ronald Reagan 1,696,632  
1968 Richard Nixon 1,679,443  
1968 Jim Rhodes 614,492  
       
1964 Barry Goldwater 2,267,079  
1964 Nelson Rockefeller 1,304,204  
1964 Jim Rhodes 615,754  
       
1952 Robert Taft 2,794,736  
1952 Dwight Eisenhower 2,050,708  
1952 Earl Warren 1,349,036  
1952 Harold Stassen 881,702  

+ 2012 results are incomplete with more voting to come.

In 1952 and 1968 when fewer states held primaries, it was possible to win the nomination without the highest popular vote. But it's been 44 years since the last brokered convention.

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