Sunday, May 15, 2011

Did Time's Mark Halperin Put Herman Cain as Favorite for 2012 GOP Nomination?

Mark Halperin at Time magazine has put odds on the candidates for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination, with Mitt Romney at the top of the odds board and Michele Bachmann at the bottom. What's interesting is what that says about the candidates he didn't list.

There's a 100% chance the Republican Party will pick a nominee, but the probabilities for the listed candidates only add to 58%, leaving a 42% chance for the field of unlisted candidates.

Who is in the Republican field? Let's start with Donald Trump, Ron Paul, Gary Johnson, and Rick Santorum. I don't see how any of their chances can be better than Michelle Bachmann. That leaves Herman Cain. Here's how Mark Halperin's odds chart would fill in:

Mitt Romney3:125%
Mike Huckabee9:110%
Mitch Daniels10:19%
Tim Pawlenty18:15%
Jon Huntsman20:15%
Newt Gingrich40:12%
Sarah Palin60:12%
Michelle Bachmann10,000:10%
Donald Trump10,000:10%
Ron Paul10,000:10%
Gary Johnson10,000:10%
Rick Santorum10,000:10%
Herman Cain1.4:142%

Herman Cain support on Facebook has doubled since January. He won the first Republican debate in South Carolina. With Mike Huckabee out of the race and many considering Sarah Palin unlikely to run, Cain could be polling in second position behind Mitt Romney by the end of the summer.

Unlike Mitt Romney, Herman Cain has no baggage on health care reform. His Baptist religion may sit better with Republican primary voters than Romney's Mormonism. The Tea Party likes him. Can he go the distance?

Update: the conservative blogosphere is all abuzz about the snubbing of Herman Cain, both by Time and by Fox News:

The Other McCain
Si Vis Pacem
Little Miss Attila

1 comment:

dodger said...

Herman Cain is a conservative's conservative and I say, "LET'S RAISE CAIN!"