There's a 100% chance the Republican Party will pick a nominee, but the probabilities for the listed candidates only add to 58%, leaving a 42% chance for the field of unlisted candidates.
Who is in the Republican field? Let's start with Donald Trump, Ron Paul, Gary Johnson, and Rick Santorum. I don't see how any of their chances can be better than Michelle Bachmann. That leaves Herman Cain. Here's how Mark Halperin's odds chart would fill in:
| Candidate | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Mitt Romney | 3:1 | 25% |
| Mike Huckabee | 9:1 | 10% |
| Mitch Daniels | 10:1 | 9% |
| Tim Pawlenty | 18:1 | 5% |
| Jon Huntsman | 20:1 | 5% |
| Newt Gingrich | 40:1 | 2% |
| Sarah Palin | 60:1 | 2% |
| Michelle Bachmann | 10,000:1 | 0% |
| Donald Trump | 10,000:1 | 0% |
| Ron Paul | 10,000:1 | 0% |
| Gary Johnson | 10,000:1 | 0% |
| Rick Santorum | 10,000:1 | 0% |
| Herman Cain | 1.4:1 | 42% |
| Total | 0:1 | 100% |
Herman Cain support on Facebook has doubled since January. He won the first Republican debate in South Carolina. With Mike Huckabee out of the race and many considering Sarah Palin unlikely to run, Cain could be polling in second position behind Mitt Romney by the end of the summer.
Unlike Mitt Romney, Herman Cain has no baggage on health care reform. His Baptist religion may sit better with Republican primary voters than Romney's Mormonism. The Tea Party likes him. Can he go the distance?
Update: the conservative blogosphere is all abuzz about the snubbing of Herman Cain, both by Time and by Fox News:
Datechguy
The Other McCain
Instapundit
Si Vis Pacem
Little Miss Attila
1 comment:
Herman Cain is a conservative's conservative and I say, "LET'S RAISE CAIN!"
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