Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Herman Cain Beats the Vegas Odds While Rick Perry Goes Bust

Last night's Republican Presidential debate in Las Vegas on CNN was a hard-hitting free-for-all that has probably left most of the candidates wishing that what happened in Vegas would stay in Vegas.

Watch how the race played out on Facebook since the last debate in New Hampshire:

CandidateWed 10/12 NoonWed 10/19 NoonPickup
Herman Cain261,454289,49028,036
Ron Paul540,562552,26411,702
Mitt Romney1,130,1501,137,7607,610
Newt Gingrich151,767154,0812,314
Gary Johnson138,825139,9211,096
Rick Santorum29,90630,550644
Jon Huntsman20,09420,628534
Rick Perry167,075167,513438
Michele Bachmann460,302459,979-323

Herman Cain took a lot of heat at the debate on his 9-9-9 plan but came out the big winner. He is still riding the wave.

Rick Perry finished the week second to last, ahead of only Michele Bachmann who has already busted out and continues to leak support. He threw some big punches in the debate, but that's not winning him any followers. Rick Perry is spent, busted out, drawing dead.

Rick Santorum finished between two guys, Gary Johnson and Jon Huntsman, who weren't even at the debate. Santorum got his hits in, especially on the 9-9-9 plan, but isn't going anywhere. He might as well have phoned it in.

Mitt Romney was lucky to finish between Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich, two guys neither of whom is going to be elected President. The road is open for Romney to get embarrassed by Ron Paul in one or two of the early contests. Romney hasn't been able to best Ron Paul's follower pickup numbers in any of the 5 debates tracked here this fall. Romney will likely lose to Paul in Iowa and quite possibly Nevada. The Romney tortoise strategy only works if some more of these hares fall asleep in the next couple of months.

It's becoming clear that Mitt Romney's next big campaign move, in the next month or so, will likely be an endorsement from Donald Trump. The seal of approval from the President of the Wet Raccoon Club will not seal the deal. It can only hurt him in my estimation.

The next hurdle for Herman Cain is the Biden Line, getting more Facebook followers than Joe Biden. He can expect more questions on his 9-9-9 plan, but has 3 or 4 weeks to prepare. The next debate in Michigan on CNBC in 3 weeks won't draw a large audience so he really has 4 weeks until the CNN debate scheduled for Washington, DC. That means he can talk about 9-9-9 on his own terms for the next month.

After the two November debates it's time for the super committee report. That's the plan on spending cuts that's supposed to be submitted to Congress just before Thanksgiving. The Occupy movement is already in place to protest. That could take all the oxygen out of the Republican primary election, just 4 to 6 weeks before the first votes in Iowa and New Hampshire.

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