Saturday, June 18, 2011

Romney Leads 2012 Republicans But Michele Bachmann Has New Momentum

Rasmussen Reports has a new poll taken following the GOP Monday night debate:

Mitt Romney39
Michele Bachmann19
Herman Cain10
Newt Gingrich9
Ron Paul7
Tim Pawlenty6
Rick Santorum6
Ron Paul6
Jon Huntsman2

Rasmussen says Romney split the Tea Party down the middle with Bachmann but leads her 2 to 1 with Republicans who don't indentify as Tea Party.

Michele Bachmann moved up to the #2 slot from #9 in a pre-debate poll. It looks like she picked up much of the support that would go to Sarah Palin if she were running.

The good news for Herman Cain in the #3 slot is that in a Presidential primary, #2 is the loser and #3 gets the Vice President slot. OK, maybe that's not always true. In 2008, John McCain gave the VP slot to Sarah Palin rather than #3 Mike Huckabee. In 2000, Alan Keyes was a very distant third and the VP nod went to Dick Cheney. In 1988, George H.W. Bush passed over #3 Pat Robertson for Dan Quayle. In 1980, Ronald Reagan picked #2 George H.W. Bush for VP.

Republicans tend to rally around their frontrunner, with most Presidential primaries won by 60% to 70%. Could the primary be effectively over by fall, before a single ballot is cast? We'll see if Romney can solidify his lead over the summer, or falters.

It could be an interesting summer with rumors Sarah Palin will announce whether or not she is running next week. My take is that for this story to be true, Sarah Plain will announce she is not running. Perhaps she will perhaps play queenmaker and endorse her fellow mama grizzly Michele Bachmann. Or she might give Mitt a big bear hug and maul him on Romneycare.

Sarah has been planning to go to England and other countries in Europe in July. It wouldn't make sense for her to announce she is running and then leave the country, particularly after the recent Gingrich fiasco. But announcing she is not running might clear the way to meet with Margaret Thatcher, something she wants to do.

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