Thursday, November 8, 2012

Florida, the West Hasn't Gotten Its Vote In Either

It's two days after the election and we aren't just waiting for Florida. Take a look at the estimated percentage of the vote that is in the Western states.
68% in Alaska
75% in Oregon
55% in Washington
69% in California
71% in Arizona
That is a lot of missing votes, as many as 7 million in my estimation. That's not going to change the outcome of the election. It will increase the vote totals, both for Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. Right now, the popular vote is at 61 million to 58 million, but it could really be 65 million to 61 million.

What difference does it make? John McCain polled roughly 60 million votes in 2008, so that is the difference between McCain's total decreasing or increasing for the Republicans.

It could also be the difference between a 2% or 3% margin of victory for President Obama, a betting proposition at Intrade. Better read the fine print, bets settle at midday Friday but who knows when the votes will come in.

Where are the rest of the ballots? In the mail. The effect of vote-by-mail is that the Post Office gets to hold the ballots from Election Day until it feels like getting around to delivering them.

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