I've always thought that if Romney had a chance to win this election, he would. It should be remembered that not all roads to victory lead through Ohio. On the other hand, I've never seen the Democrats I know more motivated.
| Candidate | Obama | Obama | Romney | Obama | Romney | Obama | Romney |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result | Odds | Electors | Electors | U.S. | U.S. | Ohio | Ohio |
| RCP | 303 | 235 | 48.8% | 48.1% | 50.0% | 47.1% | |
| NYT 538 | 92.0% | 315.2 | 223 | 50.9% | 48.2% | 51.4% | 47.6% |
| Intrade | 67.9% | 290 | 249 | 50.5% | 49.5% | ^ | v |
| Betfair | 78.4% | ||||||
| HuffPo | 271 | 191 | 48.1% | 46.7% | 49.2% | 45.8% | |
| Politico | 303 | 235 | 48.0% | 48.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | |
| Gallup | 49.0% | 50.0% | |||||
| Rasmussen | 48.0% | 49.0% | 49.0% | 49.0% | |||
| CNN | 49.0% | 49.0% | |||||
| ABC/WaPo | 50.0% | 47.0% | |||||
| NBC/WSJ | 48.0% | 47.0% | 51.0% | 45.0% | |||
| Pew | 50.0% | 47.0% | |||||
| Actual | 332 | 206 | 50.6% | 47.9% | 50.1% | 48.2% |
You might ask, why not forget the polls and just vote? Well, there is a certain category of fair-weather voter who likes to vote for the winner. There is another category of voter who likes to vote for the underdog, but by definition that is a smaller category. That means in a very close election "I'm going to win" is how you get those last swing voters.
In the perfect campaign, the candidate would collect both the underdog vote and the fair-weather vote, by targeted messaging of "I'm going to lose" and "I'm going to win." Could it be that the Obama campaign is just that smart?
Update: Now that we have the "official" results from Florida, it would appear that the predictions of an Obama victory weren't confident enough.
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