Friday, August 22, 2008

Red Tide Rising

For the first time Barack Obama has dipped below the 270 electoral votes needed for election in both of the projection tracking polls we follow. One has Barack Obama and John McCain tied at 269 electoral votes apiece. The other has Obama at 269 electoral votes with 256 for McCain and Virginia’s 13 electoral votes in a tie.

Are we going to have to break out the rule book on tiebreakers? If this trend continues, Obama looks vulnerable in several other states where he is currently leading: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico. We’re not counting Obama out yet, but look for a McCain blowout.

Who knows? John McCain may even win Massachusetts. He is opening an office next week on Boston Common, at 145 Tremont St. Ronald Reagan carried Massachusetts in both 1980 and 1984.

What's happening to Obama? It may be the VP choice. Obama got voters in Indiana, Ohio, and Virginia excited that he might pick someone from their state. But at least 2 out of 3 have to be disappointed, and the Hillary supporters are also likely to be disappointed.

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