Thursday, February 28, 2008

The Battle of Tiffin, Ohio

Our Correspondent in Ohio: This news clip from CBS is about the town of Tiffin Ohio where my wife is from. Her Dad and Sister still live there. It's a sad little place these days. I'll bet McCain wins that county. We'll see next Tuesday.

Left Bank of the Charles: But who will win Tiffin next Tuesday on the Democratic side? Here in Massachusetts, Hillary carried the old working class cities big time. I think the polls say that Hillary has a small lead in Ohio but it’s a tight race in Texas.

Our Correspondent in Ohio: Hillary will win in Tiffin. However, given the small population base in the rural counties, I'm calling it for Obama statewide. The first Obama sign went up on my street over the weekend. Three McCain signs went up today. I've not seen one Hillary sign in Ohio and I've been traveling around lately. I do see Obama signs. Obama will win because Hillary supporters will stay home, especially if we have bad weather next Tuesday.

Left Bank of the Charles: My March 4 predictions:

Texas – Barack wins narrowly
Ohio – Hillary wins narrowly
Vermont – lock for Barack
Rhode Island – lock for Hillary

But, if Barack can win both Texas and Ohio, that probably gets him the nomination. It won’t be official, because he leads now by less than 100 delegates and even a clean sweep won’t be enough to officially clinch, but the pressure for Hillary to take the second slot or drop out will be high, and the losses will set her back enough to justify that to her supporters. Otherwise, it’s up to Hillary how long she hangs on.

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