Friday, September 7, 2012

Romney Glacier Advances Toward November

Mitt Romney tied it up in the Real Clear Politics poll average, 46.7% to 46.7%, but still trails in 10 out of 12 battleground states.

However, Romney does have the momentum with Obama's lead in the battleground dropping over the last 40 days from 2.4% to 2.1% to 1.2%. At this rate I would project Mitt Romney will win Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Missouri in the battleground, which would give him a 272 to 266 electoral victory.

Battleground States: Electoral Votes 2008 Margin 7/29
Pennsylvania 20 10.5% 5.8% 6.6% 7.7%
New Hampshire 4 9.7% 3.0% 3.5% 3.5%
Nevada 6 12.8% 5.3% 5.0% 3.3%
Michigan 16 16.7% 4.2% 7.7% 2.4%
Colorado 9 9.1% 3.0% 1.0% 2.3%
Wisconsin 10 14.1% 6.0% 3.5% 1.4%
Ohio 18 4.7% 5.0% 1.8% 0.7%
Virginia 13 6.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.6%
Florida 29 2.8% 0.6% 1.0% 0.6%
Iowa 6 9.7% 1.3% 1.0% 0.2%
North Carolina 15 0.3% -0.4% -1.0% -2.0%
Missouri 10 -0.1% -6.0% -6.3% -6.0%
Battleground Average 156 7.2% 2.4% 2.1% 1.2%

It's a slow momentum, inching along at the speed of an advancing glacier, but Romney support has moved fast enough in the last 40 days to cover the necessary ground in the remaining 60 days, even if Obama support gets a little post-convention bounce.

Can the Obama campaign heat up its voter base enough to stop Romney's glacier-like advance? Barack Obama's legendary coolness may be a problem. He's going to have to light a fire in a way he just didn't in his Thursday night convention speech.

The Thursday night speeches focused on the jobs saved in the 2009 auto industry bailout. That's a play for the battleground states of Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan. But I imagine some of the 780,000 Americans now employed in the auto industry don't think they owe the President their jobs. Worse for President Obama, some of the 315,000 workers who lost their jobs in the crisis may not feel enough was done to help them. Focusing on the "success" of the auto bailout just rubs that in.

Palestine still waits for recognition of its statehood with its new ally the Muslim Brotherhood Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi when the UN General Assembly convenes in New York on September 18. That's perhaps a potential triumph but is more probably a diplomatic disaster in waiting.

The scheduled debates on October 3, 11, 16, and 22 are clustered inside just 3 weeks. One will be a town hall hosted by CNN's Candy Crowley, and I can tell you right now that will be a disaster for President Obama. The VP candidate debate will be a disaster for Vice President Joe Biden. It's hard to see how the Obama campaign can do better than a split decision.

And then it's November 6, election day, just 60 days away.

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