Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Off to the Races

I am seeing poll numbers that show Democrats picking up 2 seats in the House of Representatives, 7 seats in the U.S. Senate, and winning the Presidency 304 electoral votes to 221, with 13 up for grabs. That would mean Obama holding all the states John Kerry won in 2004 and picking up the western mountain states of Colorado and New Mexico and the midwestern states of Iowa, Missouri, and Ohio. In the west, Obama also has chances to pick up Nevada and Montana. In the south, he has chances to pick up Virginia, North Carolina, Mississippi, and perhaps others. It could be a rout.

Campaign money as of 5/20/2008

On the other hand, McCain is still competitive, trailing Obama by only 4% in nationwide polls, and a lot can happen in the five months between now and the general election in November. He has a chance to hold most of the states Bush won and pick up New Hampshire, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. But I know one passionate McCain supporter of a few months ago who is now spending his time standing in front of Wal-Mart stores working for a "nonpartisan" organization signing up minorities and low income voters. Most common response: "I'm already registered." Second most common response: "Sorry, I'm a felon."

For those of you wanting a quick update on the race as the summer progresses, Left Bank of the Charles is posting the "scorecard" in the middle of the left column.

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