Friday, August 26, 2011

Rick Perry Gallups to Front of Republican Pack

Gallup has a new poll out showing Rick Perry leading the rest of the Republican field by double digits in the race for the 2012 Presidential nomination.

And where did that big lead come from? My theory: A third came directly off support for Mitt Romney. Another third came from Tim Pawlenty and Newt Gingrich. The final third from other candidates and undecideds.

from June
Rick Perry29%+29%
Ron Paul13%+5%
Michele Bachmann10%+3%
Mitt Romney17%-10%
Tim Pawlenty--6%
Herman Cain4%-6%
Newt Gingrich4%-5%
Rick Santorum3%-3%
Jon Huntsman1%-1%
No Preference17%-4%

The other gainers since June were Ron Paul and Michele Bachman, who I think both pulled Tea Party support away from Herman Cain. Cain peaked in June. Bachmann may have peaked in July. Romney may also have peaked, but is still in second place.

September will be make or break for Rick Perry. He is untested in the Presidential debates and there are three scheduled for September, one at the Reagan library in California and two in Florida.

Sarah Palin has also indicated she will make a decision on whether or not to make her unofficial campaign for President official by the end of September. So if Rick Perry falters on the debate stage, there is a maverick chomping at the bit and raring to join the race.

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