Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Bitter victory in Pennsylvania

Hillary Clinton has won the battle of Bittertown, Pennsylvania.

Barack won Philadelphia and Harrisburg, the two big cities with black majorities, the rich liberal white suburbs along the Philadelphia Main Line, a couple of college towns, and Amish country. Hillary won the white working class counties containing Pittsburgh, Allentown, Scranton, and everywhere else. Hillary’s 55/45 win was California 52/43, Massachusetts 55/38, New Jersey 54/44, New York 57/40 and Ohio 54/44 all over again. And let’s not forget Florida 50/33/14 and Michigan 55/40 undecided.

Barack now leads Hillary by 133 delegates, 1719 to 1586. Hillary will have to win 60% of the remaining uncommitted delegates and superdelegates to catch up. But if Florida and Michigan are counted, Barack’s lead is only 5 delegates. So now it seems that Clinton and Obama are on a course for mutually assured destruction. Where does this madness end?

Endgame for Hillary Clinton

(1) Win Indiana on May 6, West Virginia on May 13, Kentucky on May 20, and Montana or South Dakota on June 3.
(2) Continue pressure to count Florida and Michigan.
(3) You don’t have to quit as long as you are still winning primaries.
(4) Be ready to take the VP slot if it is offered. Everyone loves a June bride.

Endgame for Barack Obama

(1) Win North Carolina on May 6, Oregon on May 20, and try to pick up some of the other states along the way.
(2) Hire some speech writers who can relate to middle America.
(3) Don’t settle for VP as long as you stay ahead in the official delegate count, and drag your feet on Florida and Michigan.
(4) Remember that if you walk out, and Hillary goes down in the fall, this gets blamed on you.

Endgame for John McCain

(1) Joe Lieberman is dangling the possibility of speaking at the Republican Convention. (Senator Lieberman was Al Gore’s running mate in 2000; anti-war Democrats tried and failed to purge him from the Senate in 2006.)
(2) Is the next step to dangle Lieberman as McCain’s VP pick? You read it here first.
(3) Unity tickets have been common in other democracies during time of war.
(4) Sit back, watch, and rest up. It will be a long summer, followed by a short fall.

Endgame for the Republican National Committee

(1) Is McCain/Lieberman your best chance against Obama/Clinton? Would that put blue states like Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, and California in play?
(2) A Democratic Party split two ways could just as easily be split three ways. And you could always marry the jilted bride.
(3) Rupert Murdoch, also owner of Fox News, is picking a new managing editor for the Wall Street Journal. Who does he like for VP?
(4) Keep quiet, no one’s watching you.

Endgame for the Democratic National Committee

Chairman Howard Dean: Is there really a chance for McCain to get through?

James Carville: Mr. Chairman, if I may speak freely, the Republican talks big, but frankly, we think he's short of know-how. I mean, you just can't expect a bunch of ignorant peons to understand a political machine like some of our boys. And that's not meant as an insult, Mr. Obama. I mean, you, you take your average Republican, we all know how much guts he's got. Hell, look, look at all them Republicans Nancy Pelosi killed off in 2006 and they still wouldn't quit. But if the pilot's good, see, I mean, if he's really sharp, he can barrel that baby in so low [he spreads his arms like wings and laughs], you oughtta see it sometime, it's a sight. A big plane like a '52 Eisenhower. VRROOM! There's jet exhaust, fryin' chickens in the barnyard. Them chickens ain’t never coming home to roost.

Howard Dean: Yeah, but has he got a chance?

James Carville: Has he got a chance? Hell,

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