Friday, October 19, 2012
Win the Debate Point, Lose the Ad Buy
The Libya question did not come across well for Mitt Romney in the debate Tuesday, particularly after moderator Candy Crowley jumped in. Now she's starring with President Obama in a Republican attack ad.
The Obama administration still doesn't have an answer that puts this issue behind them, and the last debate next week is on foreign policy, so it will be sure to come up again.
Notice that President Obama never actually acknowledges in the debate that he called the Libya deaths an "act of terror" in the Rose Garden on the day after. "Please proceed, Governor" was his actual response. But it came across as just such an acknowledgment after Candy Crowley jumped in to "help" the President.
The Obama administration still doesn't have an answer that puts this issue behind them, and the last debate next week is on foreign policy, so it will be sure to come up again.
Notice that President Obama never actually acknowledges in the debate that he called the Libya deaths an "act of terror" in the Rose Garden on the day after. "Please proceed, Governor" was his actual response. But it came across as just such an acknowledgment after Candy Crowley jumped in to "help" the President.
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Has Glacier Romney Reached Its High Water Mark?
By most accounts last night's debate was a narrow win for President Obama. Barack Obama still has the lead, but Mitt Romney has had the momentum. You can see Romney whittling away at Obama's lead in the battleground states over the last 80 days, with a big setback in September when his 47% comment was publicized, offset by a big bounce coming out of the first debate.
Nonetheless, it's been a very slow glacier-like advance for Romney, and he now trails by just .3% in the battleground states.
President Obama is still on track to win reelection, particular if the town hall debate slows Romney's momentum, but with the polls so close that could easily change over the remaining 20 days. Obama is defending and Mitt Romney is challenging, which gives Romney the advantage of picking the battleground state strategy for his final attack.
Romney starts with 181 electoral votes in states he is expected to easily win. Adding the states of Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Missouri where he is currently leading would bring him to 244 electoral votes, just 26 short of the 270 needed to win. Let's assume he can do that. What are his strategies?
Go Short - Winning Ohio and Virginia would bring Romney to 275. This looks like the easiest path to win. Republicans know how to win these states. It's the shortest way to the White House, but likely well-guarded, so Mitt Romney might be advised not to get bogged down on this path.
Go Home - Winning Michigan and Wisconsin, the home states of Mitt Romney and his VP pick Paul Ryan, brings Romney to 270. That may have been the whole point of the VP pick but, as the saying goes and the polls currently show, you can't always go home again.
Go to Gettysburg - Winning Pennsylvania plus any other state except New Hampshire puts Romney above 270. The Gettysburg strategy is the boldest. On the one hand, Republicans haven't won Pennsylvania since 1988, 24 years ago. On the other hand, the Obama campaign likely wouldn't see it coming. But it's very risky - remember Pickett's Charge.
Go Small - Winning Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, and New Hampshire also brings Romney to 270. All things considered, this may be Romney's best chance. Romney can lose any one of the small states so long as he offsets the loss with a win in a bigger state. So winning Virginia would offset losing Wisconsin.
If I'm Obama, I assign someone to keep an eye on my lead in Pennsylvania and Michigan, and counterattack in Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa. There are other ways to defend, but these states would seal 271 electoral votes for the win.
| Battleground States: | Electoral Votes | 2008 Margin | 7/29 RCP | 8/18 RCP | 9/7 RCP | 9/27 RCP | 10/17 RCP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | 20 | 10.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 5.0% |
| Michigan | 16 | 16.7% | 4.2% | 7.7% | 2.4% | 8.6% | 4.4% |
| Iowa | 6 | 9.7% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 4.7% | 2.3% |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 14.1% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 7.8% | 2.3% |
| Ohio | 18 | 4.7% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 5.2% | 2.2% |
| Nevada | 6 | 12.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| Virginia | 13 | 6.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 4.5% | 0.8% |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 9.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Colorado | 9 | 9.1% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | -0.7% |
| Florida | 29 | 2.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 3.1% | -2.5% |
| North Carolina | 15 | 0.3% | -0.4% | -1.0% | -2.0% | 1.0% | -4.7% |
| Missouri | 10 | -0.1% | -6.0% | -6.3% | -6.0% | -7.3% | -7.7% |
| Battleground Average | 156 | 7.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 3.6% | 0.3% |
Nonetheless, it's been a very slow glacier-like advance for Romney, and he now trails by just .3% in the battleground states.
President Obama is still on track to win reelection, particular if the town hall debate slows Romney's momentum, but with the polls so close that could easily change over the remaining 20 days. Obama is defending and Mitt Romney is challenging, which gives Romney the advantage of picking the battleground state strategy for his final attack.
Romney starts with 181 electoral votes in states he is expected to easily win. Adding the states of Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Missouri where he is currently leading would bring him to 244 electoral votes, just 26 short of the 270 needed to win. Let's assume he can do that. What are his strategies?
Go Short - Winning Ohio and Virginia would bring Romney to 275. This looks like the easiest path to win. Republicans know how to win these states. It's the shortest way to the White House, but likely well-guarded, so Mitt Romney might be advised not to get bogged down on this path.
Go Home - Winning Michigan and Wisconsin, the home states of Mitt Romney and his VP pick Paul Ryan, brings Romney to 270. That may have been the whole point of the VP pick but, as the saying goes and the polls currently show, you can't always go home again.
Go to Gettysburg - Winning Pennsylvania plus any other state except New Hampshire puts Romney above 270. The Gettysburg strategy is the boldest. On the one hand, Republicans haven't won Pennsylvania since 1988, 24 years ago. On the other hand, the Obama campaign likely wouldn't see it coming. But it's very risky - remember Pickett's Charge.
Go Small - Winning Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, and New Hampshire also brings Romney to 270. All things considered, this may be Romney's best chance. Romney can lose any one of the small states so long as he offsets the loss with a win in a bigger state. So winning Virginia would offset losing Wisconsin.
If I'm Obama, I assign someone to keep an eye on my lead in Pennsylvania and Michigan, and counterattack in Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa. There are other ways to defend, but these states would seal 271 electoral votes for the win.
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
The Candy Question at the CNN Town Hall Debate
Candy Crowley on her role as moderator in advance of Tuesday’s Presidential town hall style debate:
Charles: I’m worse off than I was 4 years ago. My favorite candy is Dark Chocolate M&Ms, you know, the ones that come in the purple package. They came out in 2005, at the height of the boom.
Candy Crowley: Those are OK, I really love the Coconut M&Ms in the silvery-white package.
Governor Romney: I can’t eat chocolate, because it has caffeine. But I want you to know that I’m prochoice when it comes to chocolate. I mean prolife. Yes, I’m definitely prolife, I support the value of life when it comes to chocolate for those not in the 47%. I mean 100%, of Americans citizens that is, no chocolates for you illegal aliens, unless you self-deport, or mow my lawn.
President Obama: Candy, you’re my favorite candy. (winks)
Candy Crowley: (giggles like a schoolgirl, then turns suddenly serious) … So, Governor Romney, would you ban chocolate if you are elected President? Would you require chocolate purchasers to show their photo IDs and birth certificates?
Governor Romney: There's no legislation with regards to chocolate that I'm familiar with that would become part of my agenda. Certainly I would sign a Constitutional amendment banning all caffeine products if one happened across my desk, if my signature were required for such amendments, which it isn’t. My campaign will have a clarifying statement tomorrow morning.
Candy Crowley: Can we get back to Charles, I think he might have more to his question coming, and it better not contain the words, “sausage or pepperoni?”
Charles: Thanks. It’s now 4 or 5 years into the great recession, and I can’t find Dark Chocolate M&Ms anywhere. C’est Bon, CVS, Tommy’s Lunch, The Market, the closed 7-Eleven, Shaw’s, Gourmet Express, the defunct White Hen Pantry, Sarah’s Market - all no longer carry Dark Chocolate M&Ms.
Candy Crowley: (interrupts) Did you see what I did there? I win the free Pizza Hut pizzas for life. Just thinking about that makes me hungry. Governor?
Governor Romney: This is a failure of President Obama’s foreign policy. President Obama’s apologetic diplomacy in Côte d'Ivoire led to 40% of the world’s cocoa crop falling into the hands of Al Qaeda and they are selling this essential ingredient for making chocolate to Iran in violation of President Obama’s unexceptional sanctions policy. This would never have happened if I had been President, or Hillary.
President Obama: (rolling eyes Joe Biden style) I just want to remind you that the recession is not so great as it would have been and it began during the term of my predecessor who must not be named.
Charles: Yes, he was a Dark Lord, but then I could buy Dark Chocolate M&Ms whenever I wanted. Mr. President, you promised that under your plan I could keep my current candy?
President Obama: You should try the Raspberry M&Ms or the Coconut M&Ms that were introduced in June after review by Elizabeth Warren’s Candy Factory Prevention Bureau and approval by First Lady Michelle Obama’s healthy food stamps initiative.
Governor Romney: That’s the problem, you try to pick winners and losers, but you only pick losers, the bad candy that trick-or-treaters sort out when forced to share with their little brothers. Why, I have seen Anderson Cooper’s repeated reports on CNN about a veterans group that was donated a truckload of excess Coconut M&Ms that it could find no use for.
Candy Crowley: (muttering) Anderson Cooper, must eat Coconut M&Ms. (runs off stage)
Anderson Cooper: (offstage) Candy, what? Agh. Agh.
Piers Morgan: (offstage) No, Candy, No. Anderson Cooper is not a silvery-white package of Coconut M&Ms. Erin, where’d you come from? No, no no …
“I understand that I’m there. I’m not a fly on the wall. We don’t want the candidates to spout talking points. That doesn’t help voters … I’m going to react organically to what’s happening.”Candy Crowley: We’ve had a lot of great questions tonight on the economy, women’s rights, and foreign policy. Our next question comes from Charles, a blogger from Massachusetts.
Charles: I’m worse off than I was 4 years ago. My favorite candy is Dark Chocolate M&Ms, you know, the ones that come in the purple package. They came out in 2005, at the height of the boom.
Candy Crowley: Those are OK, I really love the Coconut M&Ms in the silvery-white package.
Governor Romney: I can’t eat chocolate, because it has caffeine. But I want you to know that I’m prochoice when it comes to chocolate. I mean prolife. Yes, I’m definitely prolife, I support the value of life when it comes to chocolate for those not in the 47%. I mean 100%, of Americans citizens that is, no chocolates for you illegal aliens, unless you self-deport, or mow my lawn.
President Obama: Candy, you’re my favorite candy. (winks)
Candy Crowley: (giggles like a schoolgirl, then turns suddenly serious) … So, Governor Romney, would you ban chocolate if you are elected President? Would you require chocolate purchasers to show their photo IDs and birth certificates?
Governor Romney: There's no legislation with regards to chocolate that I'm familiar with that would become part of my agenda. Certainly I would sign a Constitutional amendment banning all caffeine products if one happened across my desk, if my signature were required for such amendments, which it isn’t. My campaign will have a clarifying statement tomorrow morning.
Candy Crowley: Can we get back to Charles, I think he might have more to his question coming, and it better not contain the words, “sausage or pepperoni?”
Charles: Thanks. It’s now 4 or 5 years into the great recession, and I can’t find Dark Chocolate M&Ms anywhere. C’est Bon, CVS, Tommy’s Lunch, The Market, the closed 7-Eleven, Shaw’s, Gourmet Express, the defunct White Hen Pantry, Sarah’s Market - all no longer carry Dark Chocolate M&Ms.
Candy Crowley: (interrupts) Did you see what I did there? I win the free Pizza Hut pizzas for life. Just thinking about that makes me hungry. Governor?
Governor Romney: This is a failure of President Obama’s foreign policy. President Obama’s apologetic diplomacy in Côte d'Ivoire led to 40% of the world’s cocoa crop falling into the hands of Al Qaeda and they are selling this essential ingredient for making chocolate to Iran in violation of President Obama’s unexceptional sanctions policy. This would never have happened if I had been President, or Hillary.
President Obama: (rolling eyes Joe Biden style) I just want to remind you that the recession is not so great as it would have been and it began during the term of my predecessor who must not be named.
Charles: Yes, he was a Dark Lord, but then I could buy Dark Chocolate M&Ms whenever I wanted. Mr. President, you promised that under your plan I could keep my current candy?
President Obama: You should try the Raspberry M&Ms or the Coconut M&Ms that were introduced in June after review by Elizabeth Warren’s Candy Factory Prevention Bureau and approval by First Lady Michelle Obama’s healthy food stamps initiative.
Governor Romney: That’s the problem, you try to pick winners and losers, but you only pick losers, the bad candy that trick-or-treaters sort out when forced to share with their little brothers. Why, I have seen Anderson Cooper’s repeated reports on CNN about a veterans group that was donated a truckload of excess Coconut M&Ms that it could find no use for.
Candy Crowley: (muttering) Anderson Cooper, must eat Coconut M&Ms. (runs off stage)
Anderson Cooper: (offstage) Candy, what? Agh. Agh.
Piers Morgan: (offstage) No, Candy, No. Anderson Cooper is not a silvery-white package of Coconut M&Ms. Erin, where’d you come from? No, no no …
Monday, October 15, 2012
Uncle Obama Owns the Banana-Eating Swing Vote
If you think this is in any way racist, I got it from Andrew Sullivan at The Daily Beast by way of Ann Althouse. You can buy this on iTtunes.
Sister Deborah hails from the African nation of Ghana, which raises the interesting legal question of whether this video constitutes an illegal campaign contribution from a foreigner. And to whose campaign? I guess we could burn down their embassy.
Sunday, October 14, 2012
Arlen Specter Returns to the Grassy Knoll
The man who knew where all the bodies were buried, and who buried them, will himself be buried Tuesday.
Longtime U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania Arlen Specter died at age 82 Sunday from non-Hodgkins lymphoma. Or at least that's the official story.
Unofficially, Arlen Specter is the man credited with the single-bullet theory in the Warren Commission's report on the JFK assassination. The 50th anniversary of JFK's death is coming up in a year and promises to shake loose some as yet unreleased government documents, which Specter will now be unable to comment upon. Specter will be missed by conspiracy theorists everywhere.
Arlen Specter was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1980, part of the Reagan revolution that gained Republicans control the U.S. Senate for the first time since 1954. He left the Republican Party in 2009, in order to support President Obama and Obamacare.
The party switch did not work out well. Specter ran for reelection as a Democrat in 2010 but lost his new party's nomination to Joe Sestak, who then lost the general election to Republican Pat Toomey. While Specter's switch helped provide the 60 votes to break the Republican filibuster of Obamacare in the Senate, it also deprived Obamacare of the aura of bipartisanship it would have had if he had remained a Republican.
Longtime U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania Arlen Specter died at age 82 Sunday from non-Hodgkins lymphoma. Or at least that's the official story.
Unofficially, Arlen Specter is the man credited with the single-bullet theory in the Warren Commission's report on the JFK assassination. The 50th anniversary of JFK's death is coming up in a year and promises to shake loose some as yet unreleased government documents, which Specter will now be unable to comment upon. Specter will be missed by conspiracy theorists everywhere.
Arlen Specter was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1980, part of the Reagan revolution that gained Republicans control the U.S. Senate for the first time since 1954. He left the Republican Party in 2009, in order to support President Obama and Obamacare.
The party switch did not work out well. Specter ran for reelection as a Democrat in 2010 but lost his new party's nomination to Joe Sestak, who then lost the general election to Republican Pat Toomey. While Specter's switch helped provide the 60 votes to break the Republican filibuster of Obamacare in the Senate, it also deprived Obamacare of the aura of bipartisanship it would have had if he had remained a Republican.
Saturday, October 13, 2012
Bad Campaign Slogans, Just Shoot Me Edition
If that's not bad enough, you can always put some profanity in the mouth of your favorite children's television character.
The problem is, even Big Bird is still a little bit undecided. 99% for Obama still leaves 1% of Big Bird thinking of voting for for Mitt Romney.
You can buy these at DemStore.
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