| Battleground States: | Electoral Votes | 2008 Margin | 7/29 RCP | 8/18 RCP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | 16 | 16.7% | 4.2% | 7.7% |
| Pennsylvania | 20 | 10.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% |
| Nevada | 6 | 12.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 14.1% | 6.0% | 3.5% |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 9.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
| Ohio | 18 | 4.7% | 5.0% | 1.8% |
| Colorado | 9 | 9.1% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Iowa | 6 | 9.7% | 1.3% | 1.0% |
| Florida | 29 | 2.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% |
| Virginia | 13 | 6.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% |
| North Carolina | 15 | 0.3% | -0.4% | -1.0% |
| Missouri | 10 | -0.1% | -6.0% | -6.3% |
| Battleground Average | 156 | 7.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% |
To put this in perspective, President George Bush won reelection in 2004 by about 2.4% and won election in 2000 despite losing the popular vote by .5%. With just 2.1% separation in the 12 battleground states, we are looking at another very close election.
The key to Obama's reelection hopes at this point in the race is hanging onto Michigan and Pennsylvania. They would give him 36 of the 69 electoral votes he needs from the battleground states. Then Florida plus any other state would give him victory. He has other ways to win as well.
On the other hand, Romney gets elected if he wins from Ohio down. And he can afford to trade losing Ohio for winning Wisconsin, his running mate Paul Ryan's home state. He could also trade losing Ohio for winning Nevada and New Hampshire. If he wins Ohio, he could afford to lose Colorado or Iowa but not both.
What would really open up Romney's chances is closing the polling gap in Michigan, his home state where he was born and raised. That would double his ways to win.
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