Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Romney Runs the Score up the Eastern Seaboard

Mitt Romney has begun to run up the score with big wins on Tuesday, April 24 in states that could have voted to rebuke him if there were any real resistance to his becoming the Republican nominee.

Candidate Delaware Pennsylvania New York Connecticut Rhode Island
Mitt Romney 56% 58% 63% 67% 63%
Rick Santorum 6% 18% 9% 7% 6%
Newt Gingrich 27% 10% 13% 10% 6%
Ron Paul 11% 13% 15% 13% 24%

Romney is closing in on the 1144 delegates to make it official, but looking at the primary schedule that will still take until at least May 22. The scoreboard:

# of delegates secured so far NYT WSJ CNN CBS MSNBC RCP
Mitt Romney 844 844 841 846 852 838
Rick Santorum 260 260 273 245 260 267
Newt Gingrich 137 137 141 129 138 141
Ron Paul 79 79 76 52 79 88
Jon Huntsman 1 1 0 2 0 0
Total 1321 1321 1331 1274 1329 1334
         
% of delegates secured so far        
Mitt Romney 64% 64% 63% 66% 64% 63%
Rick Santorum 20% 20% 21% 19% 20% 20%
Newt Gingrich 10% 10% 11% 10% 10% 11%
Ron Paul 6% 6% 6% 4% 6% 7%
         
% of remaining needed to clinch:        
Mitt Romney 31% 31% 32% 29% 31% 32%
Rick Santorum 92% 92% 91% 89% 92% 92%
Newt Gingrich 104% 104% 105% 100% 105% 105%
Ron Paul 110% 110% 112% 108% 111% 111%

Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich are still in the race but have now been mathematically eliminated on all scorecards. Their only theoretical path to victory is to win over Santorum delegates and prevent Romney from getting to 1144.

The delegate count for Santorum has actually fallen since he suspended his campaign two weeks ago. That's because while Rick Santorum appeared to win the Minnesota caucuses back on February 7, Ron Paul did a better job of lining up his people behind the scenes to get selected as delegates.

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