Seeing Rs Across the 2012 Battleground

At this point the U.S. Presidential race is not so much about polls as possibilities in the 12 battleground states where the election will be decided.

We know President Barack Obama can win. He won 11 of the 12 battleground states in 2008 and leads the polls in 10 of them today. With 201 electoral votes in states he can safely win, he only needs 69 electoral votes from these 12 states.

But Republican candidates have been doing very well in these states. If battleground state voters follow their choices for governor, state legislature, or U.S. House of Representatives, Romney would get 118 to 150 electoral votes from the battleground, which would put him well over the 270 he needs for victory.

Battleground States:	Electoral Votes		State Gov.	State House	State Senate	U.S. House	U.S. Senate
Wisconsin	10		R	R	D	R 5-3	1-1
Pennsylvania	20		R	R	R	R 12-7	1-1
Nevada	6		R	D	D	R 2-1	1-1
Ohio	18		R	R	R	R 13-5	1-1
Michigan	16		R	R	R	R 9-6	D 2-0
Colorado	9		D	R	D	R 4-3	D 2-0
New Hampshire	4		D	R	R	R 2-0	1-1
Iowa	6		R	R	D	D 3-2	1-1
Virginia	13		R	R	R	R 8-3	D 2-0
Florida	29		R	R	R	R 19-6	1-1
North Carolina	15		D	R	R	D 7-6	1-1
Missouri	10		D	R	R	R 6-3	1-1
Battleground Total	156		R 118-38	R 150-6	R 125-31	R 135-21	-

With the battleground states very comfortable voting Republican for state office and Congress, the question is whether they are comfortable enough to give Republicans full control of the federal government. Or will they split their vote, as they are quite clearly capable of doing too.

There are 8 U.S. Senate seats up for reelection in the battleground states, all but one currently held by Democrats. While Democrats are expected to hold 3 of them (MI, OH, PA), the other five races are considered toss-ups (FL, MO, NV, VA, and WI). That means the battleground states hold the U.S. Senate as well as the Presidency in the balance.

I think it's likely come November that battleground voters will vote Republican in the U.S. House and Senate races. That means the question most will be asking themselves is who will make the best President for a Republican Congress. In other words, the face will come down to whether voters think Barack Obama or Mitt Romney will make the best Republican President.

That's essentially what happened in 1996, when Bill Clinton got reelected over Bob Dole while at the same time Republicans were returned to Congress. Bill Clinton, who had just negotiated welfare reform, was judged the best Republican. However, in this election, we have yet to see President Obama make the moderating move.

Romney's Ryan Choice Doubles Down on Midwest

Mitt Romney has borrowed a page from the Bill Clinton playbook. In 1992, the man from Arkansas picked All Gore from neighboring Tennessee as his running mate. The man from Michigan has this morning picked Paul Ryan from neighboring Wisconsin as his running mate.

The Romney campaign clearly means to pursue a Midwestern strategy, an appeal to the more moderate Republican Party tradition in the Midwest that has focused more on fiscal than on social issues.

Among twelve battleground states, five are in the Midwest: Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio. They collectively represent 60 electoral votes out of the 89 electoral votes Romney needs to win in the battleground states. He's got 181 electoral votes all but wrapped up in 22 states, 89 more bring Romney to the magic 270 electoral votes needed for election.

Four of the five states have Republican governors. While voters in Wisconsin and Michigan have tended to favor Democratic Presidential candidates in recent decades, they now have two homegrown boys on the Presidential ballot.

Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan brings a national appeal as a Tea Party hero for his work in Congress on budget and entitlement reform. Born in 1970, Ryan is a Gen Xer who will also appeal to younger voters. It won't hurt that he has the looks of a young Kennedy. It's a bold choice.

A Romney win in North Carolina would bring his battleground state total to 75 electoral votes. The Obama campaign plans to snub North Carolina voters who enacted a gay marriage ban just this past spring by putting a pro-gay marriage plank into the Democratic Party platform when they hold their national convention in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Where would Romney get the last 14 electoral votes he would need for victory? Well, there's Florida for 29, Pennsylvania for 20, Virginia plus Nevada for 19, Virginia plus New Hampshire for 17, or Colorado pus Nevada for 15.

In other words, Romney has five ways to win if his Midwestern strategy succeeds. Of course, the voters in those states may have something to say about that.

There is a sixth way for Romney to win. If Romney sweeps the five battleground states in the Midwest and wins Colorado and New Hampshire, both Tea Party strongholds, that would leave both Romney and Obama with 269 electoral votes each. Ties go to the U.S. House of Representatives where Republicans have the upper hand and look to keep it.

That means the Obama campaign has to defend all twelve battleground states, because the unnecessary loss of any one could give Romney the victory. The best chance to stop Romney in the Midwest is Michigan. If Romney loses his birthplace state, he'll likely lose the election.

The Factor Came to Town and Didn't Even Call Me

The Green Team is Meeting in the Conference Room

The tragic shootings in Colorado and Wisconsin demonstrate some hard truths. Mass shootings can occur anywhere, anytime. The bad guy has the advantage of surprise. The police are not going to get there in time to save anyone. If you believe that bad things come in threes, you should be prepared for a third attack.











As the last two videos show, before Columbine, the police training was to secure the perimeter and wait for the SWAT team. Now the training is for the first responder to go in after the bad guy. Police get shot when they do that, which is what makes the actions of Oak Creek Police Lieutenant Brian Murphy, who was shot 8 or 9 times, heroic.

Mitt Romney Is My Personal Hero, If Harry Reid Is to Be Believed

Some stories are so obviously bullshit that they can't even be called lying. That's how I scored U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's claim to inside information that Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney had not paid taxes for 10 years.

The Washington Post fact checker gave him four Pinocchios. And we know that Harry doesn't think Mitt broke any tax laws, or he would be putting in for the IRS reward money.

Let's say its true that Mitt has legally arranged his affairs in such a way as to pay no U.S. income taxes for a whole decade. That would make him my personal hero.

It must be said that the claim is not entirely implausible. Mitt took $1 a year as his paycheck during his 4 years as governor of Massachusetts. Mitt gives a lot to charity (although it must be observed that you can't deduct more than 50% of your adjusted gross income in any one year). Mitt's wife Ann suffers from multiple sclerosis so they may have some big deductible medical expenses for her treatment. The last dozen years have seen more than their share of financial up and downs, so someone like Mitt could very easily have had some years where he lost money (Mitt did make money and pay taxes in a couple of those bad years based tax returns Mitt did release).

Journalist are beginning to ask, "If Harry Reid is lying about Mitt Romney's taxes, could he be lying about his own taxes?" So far Harry refuses to release any of his tax returns, even though he has amassed a personal fortune of $10 million over his long career as U.S. Senator for Nevada. Las Vegas, the city that runs on comps, may very well have thrown Reid a few kickbacks. You think?

In the department of situational ethics, someone dug up a statement Harry made back in 1974: "Any man or woman who will not be completely candid about his or her finances does not deserve to be in public office." Ask about that statement yesterday, Harry responded: "In 1974, I wasn't in Congress." In other words, back then he had nothing to hide.

Meanwhile Massachusetts U.S. Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren is walking back her own latest act of hypocrisy. Turns out he had already showed the press 6 years of returns, whereas she has only shown 4 years. Suddenly, 6 years are enough for Elizabeth. Elizabeth had been calling on Senator Scott Brown to release his tax returns going back twenty years.

"I think Scott Brown should release his tax returns for all the years he’s been in public service."

However, Elizabeth seems to have a problem applying that standard to herself. She released tax her returns for the time she was the Bailout Czar and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Czar. But she has not released her returns from her work 1995 to 1997 work as adviser to the National Bankruptcy Review Commission, or her 2006 appointment to the FDIC Advisory Committee on Economic Inclusion. Is it possible Elizabeth was privately getting consulting fees from Wall Street firms while at the same time holding herself out to the public as a consumer advocate?

Another hypocrite with potential tax return problems is current U.S. House Minority Leader and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi. She also has never released her tax returns, even though she held the top legislative job in Washington and was third in line to be President (and would be again if the Democrats retake the House).

In July, Nancy was calling on Mitt to release more of his tax returns but when asked to release her own tax returns dismissively replied, "Let's not be silly." Now, asked about Harry's charges on Sunday, she says "It is a fact." Then I guess it must be true. For getting a decade in taxes to zero, Mitt Romney is my hero.

Now, I will say this, it's great that the Obama campaign's focus on Romney's tax returns is leading to greater scrutiny and transparency across the political spectrum. Certainly, I've been long saying the Democrats need new leadership in Congress. If Harry and Nancy won't release their tax returns, I say we fire them.

If a Tree Falls in the Cemetery ...

I saw this as I was biking through St. Paul's Cemetery on Broadway Street in Arlington, Massachusetts. They let you do that there, unlike a certain other cemetery I won't mention.

What If Lee Harvey Oswald Had Missed?

Ann Althouse asks the Presidential hypothetical:

Assume JFK was not assassinated. Now, beginning with the 1964 election and continuing up to 2012, name the candidates for President and Vice President in both parties and who would have won. Fill in with reasons why this happened.

The thing to keep in mind with a question like this is that the Democratic and Republican Parties may have developed differently. Some politicians may never have come to national notice. Party affiliations cannot be taken for granted. Here is one such alternate United States of America:

1964 - Kennedy/Johnson (D) beat Goldwater/Miller (R) - that matchup and result was already in motion. VP Johnson convinces President Kennedy to put off civil rights legislation, keeping Strom Thurmond in the Democratic Party.

1968 - Humphrey/Wallace (D) beat Nixon/Romney (R) - Democratic Party factions unite behind Hubert Humphrey and George Wallace at Chicago convention after JFK and Johnson accept blame for Tet Offensive setback in Vietnam. Republicans Richard Nixon and George Romney embrace free market and social liberalism.

1969 - Robert Kennedy drowns when his brother Ted drives a car both are riding in off a Chappaquiddick bridge. Ted Kennedy drowns trying to save him.

1972 - Humphrey/Wallace (D) beat Romney/Rockefeller (R) – President Humphrey makes Yalta II deal with Soviet Union. Iron curtain is extended to Vietnam, Laos, Thailand, and Cambodia. Leon Panetta decides to stay in the Republican Party as he feels it is more centrist, Trent Lott remains a Democrat.

1973 - George Wallace becomes President when Hubert Humphrey dies in office, as the stresses of the office take 5 years off his life expectancy. Wallace appoints House Speaker Carl Albert of Oklahoma Vice President.

1976 –Reagan/Romney (R) beat Wallace/Albert (D) – Ronald Reagan picks Michigan Senator Lenore Romney as first woman VP nominee. Wallace blamed for ’73-’74 recession and April 1975 fall of Singapore.

1980 - Reagan/Romney (R) beat Carter/Mondale (D) - Democrats fail to reenergize the magical Minnesota-Dixie Coalition of ’68. President Reagan credited for negotiating a new Panama Canal Treaty, joining with British PM Margaret Thatcher to install Reza Pahlavi as Shah of Iran, and preventing a Soviet takeover of Afghanistan.

1984 - Romney/Baker (R) beat Mondale/Hart (D). Lenore Romney is first woman elected President of U.S. with Howard Baker as her VP. Lenore proposes a Constitutional amendment to grant abortion rights in the first trimester only.

1988 - Hart/Thurmond (D) beat Romney/Baker (R).  Gary Hart rekindles nostalgia for the Coalition of ’68 by choosing Strom Thurmond as his running mate on the platform “each region to its own socialism.”

1992 - Hart/Thurmond (D) beat Baker/Forbes (R). Gary Hart credited for “fall” of Berlin Wall as West Germany reunites with a triumphant East Germany. France elects its first Communist President. The Soviet European Union is formed. Howard Baker picks Steve Forbes as his running mate.

1996 –Weld/Panetta (R) beat Thurmond/Gore (D). Massachusetts Governor William Weld and California Senator Leon Panetta take advantage of liberals leaving the Democratic Party in the Northeastern realignment of 1994. Strom Thurmond picks fellow southerner Al Gore as his running mate, leading to a historic election night route.

2000 – Weld/Panetta (R) beat Gore/Duke (D).  Weld narrowly wins reelection after Florida recount as Tennessee Senator Al Gore teams with Democratic Louisiana Governor David Duke.

2004 –Panetta/Snowe (R) beat Duke/Feingold (D). Democratic Louisiana Governor David Duke teams with Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold. VP Leon Panetta credited for killing Osama Bin Laden in daring August 2001 Seal Team 6 raid after Panetta read report of plan to launch terrorist attack on U.S. soil.  

2008 – Panetta/Snowe (R) beat Feingold/Lott (D). Panetta credited for collapse of Soviet European Union in worst financial crisis since the Great Depression brought on by wars debts from proxy war in North Korea. Democrats Russ Feingold and Trent Lott were hurt by previous presidential nominee and Louisiana Governor David Duke’s refusal to accept timely federal help in response to Hurricane Katrina. 

2012 - Snowe/Obama (R) beat Clinton/Biden (D). Olympia Snowe is the second woman elected President. VP candidate Barack Obama recounts how he knocked on doors in Hawaii as a 15-year-old to help Ronald Reagan defeat the segrationalist President George Wallace and worked in the 1990s as a Republican Party organizer on the South Side of Chicago.