The first debate between John McCain and Barack Obama was last Friday night. Actually it was the third debate, but the first where they appeared together to answer questions. At the first two they took turns answering questions. A few thoughts:
(1) The debate was supposed to be about foreign policy, but the $700 billion elephant in the room was the bailout bill being proposed in Washington, DC. Both men looked weary.
(2) It looks like that same elephant will still be in the room for the Vice President candidate debate between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin this Thursday. Will the VP debate this Thursday draw a bigger audience? Yes, for entertainment value at least, we think that it will be must see TV.
(3) Jim Lehrer, the PBS reporter who served as moderator, seemed to put down Barack Obama as though he were some teenage miscreant, chiding him twice in quick succession, “Say it directly to him.”
(4) I counted the names of at least 6 countries where we might have to fight, 6 more countries we might have to help defend, and 6 countries where we have already been fighting over the last 40 years. I am fast warming up to the Clinton Doctrine, “more friends, fewer enemies.”
(5) I hear CNN instituted a new system where a panel rated the debaters as they made their points, with a distracting graphic display of who scored and who took a hit. Apparently CNN thinks that voters who have made up their minds need that to stay interested.
(6) Who was the winner? David Yepsen, the influential Des Moines Register editorial writer told his swing state Iowa readers that McCain won it and said Obama failed to “assure voters that he is experienced enough to handle foreign and defense policy.” On the other hand, conservative commentators seemed to think Obama won.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
How Much is $1 Trillion Dollars?
Yes, we know the financial markets bailout bill under debate is for $700 billion, but with money already spent on Bear Stearns, Fannie, Freddie, Lehman, AIG, Washington Mutual and counting we think the real cost is likely already over $1 trillion. So how much is $1,000,000?
$1 trillion would pay for 100 months in Iraq, at the rate of $10 billion per month.
The savings and loan crisis in the late 1980s cost $160 billion, so $1 trillion is 6 savings and loan crises.
The richest 400 Americans have a combined net worth of $1.5 trillion. America’s 75 largest colleges and universities have a combined endowment of $290 billion. The wealthiest foundations have a combined endowment of $250 billion. That’s about $2 trillion So Congress would have to take half of everything they have to cover $1 trillion.
The U.S. gross domestic product is $13.8 trillion. So $1 trillion is 4 weeks worth of everyone working, with nothing to pay salaries, costs of production, or personal expenses, which is a long time to go without a fill-up for gas or food.
The federal budget is about $3 trillion per year. So $1 trillion is 4 months without paying for any government services, including defense and social security.
The U.S. public debt is $9.8 billion. So $1 trillion adds 10% to the public debt.
The total value of all stock in all U.S. publicly traded companies is around $15 trillion (give or take a trillion these days), so $1 trillion is just 6.7%. That sounds better. That’s around what the stock market dropped on Monday, September 29 (makes sense).
The total value of all U.S. residential real estate is around $20 billion. So $1 trillion is 5%.
The total value of all assets owned by U.S. households and nonprofits is around $57 trillion, so $1 trillion is just 1.75% (175 basis points as the money managers say.) That’s starting to sound affordable.
Spread over the U.S. population of 305 million, 305,295,394, $1 trillion is around $3,280 per person. Over a year, that’s just $9 per day.
Spread over the total world population of 6.7 billion, $1 trillion is around $150 per person. Now we’re talking. Hello, world, for just 40 cents per day you can save the U.S. and world economy.
$1 trillion would pay for 100 months in Iraq, at the rate of $10 billion per month.
The savings and loan crisis in the late 1980s cost $160 billion, so $1 trillion is 6 savings and loan crises.
The richest 400 Americans have a combined net worth of $1.5 trillion. America’s 75 largest colleges and universities have a combined endowment of $290 billion. The wealthiest foundations have a combined endowment of $250 billion. That’s about $2 trillion So Congress would have to take half of everything they have to cover $1 trillion.
The U.S. gross domestic product is $13.8 trillion. So $1 trillion is 4 weeks worth of everyone working, with nothing to pay salaries, costs of production, or personal expenses, which is a long time to go without a fill-up for gas or food.
The federal budget is about $3 trillion per year. So $1 trillion is 4 months without paying for any government services, including defense and social security.
The U.S. public debt is $9.8 billion. So $1 trillion adds 10% to the public debt.
The total value of all stock in all U.S. publicly traded companies is around $15 trillion (give or take a trillion these days), so $1 trillion is just 6.7%. That sounds better. That’s around what the stock market dropped on Monday, September 29 (makes sense).
The total value of all U.S. residential real estate is around $20 billion. So $1 trillion is 5%.
The total value of all assets owned by U.S. households and nonprofits is around $57 trillion, so $1 trillion is just 1.75% (175 basis points as the money managers say.) That’s starting to sound affordable.
Spread over the U.S. population of 305 million, 305,295,394, $1 trillion is around $3,280 per person. Over a year, that’s just $9 per day.
Spread over the total world population of 6.7 billion, $1 trillion is around $150 per person. Now we’re talking. Hello, world, for just 40 cents per day you can save the U.S. and world economy.
Congress Votes 228 to 205 for Great Depression II
The U.S. House of Representatives voted this Monday not to approve the $700 billion bailout bill to help the ailing financial services industry, causing the stock market to drop nearly 8%. The vote was 228 against the bailout and 205 for the bailout. Now we’ll see if this brings on another Great Depression, as many politicians have warned.
Barack Obama also says he supports the bailout. But in his Illinois delegation Democrats Jesse Jackson, Jr. from Chicago, Bobby Rush from Chicago, Dan Lipinski from Western Springs, and Jerry Costello from Belleville voted against the bailout. Here in Massachusetts, Democrat Barney Frank, House Banking Committee Chairman, led the effort to craft and pass the bailout bill. But Democratic Representatives Bill Delahunt from Quincy, Stephen Lynch from South Boston, and John Tierney from Salem voted against the bailout. Those Democrats would have been enough votes to change the outcome, so we think Barack Obama has some hope that the failure of the bailout will not be as dire as some have predicted.
John McCain says he supports the bailout but could only get 65 Republicans in the House to vote for it, which was not enough to cancel the 95 Democrats who voted against it. Four Republican Representatives from McCain’s home state of Arizona and one Republican from his running mate Sarah Palin’s home state of Alaska voted against the bailout. That’s almost enough votes to change the result, so we think he too could have come up with enough votes if he had wanted too.
We’ve been listening to the debate, and find it somewhat wanting for the apparent gravity of the situation.
Painting with Taxpayer Dollars
Senator Charles Schumer (D-New York), dismissing John McCain's coming back to Washington, DC as a political stunt: "It's as if, you know, you're in the middle of drawing an amazing painting and someone else comes in and says, 'hey, come in, let me throw my brush marks on there.' It just doesn't make sense."
LBOTC: Chuck, We don’t think there has ever been a great artist named Chuck. We think we’re going to have to take your paintbrush away.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (R): “Just as you sell a painting at Sotheby's, until you sell it, nobody knows what it is worth."
LBOTC: A painting, Ben? You do understand you’re talking about our economy? Is this how this went down with your speechwriter?
(A) Sell a painting at Sotheby’s
(B) Sell your pound cows at the cattle auction
(C) Trade in your clunker for a new car
(D) List your plane on eBay
(E) Put your house up for sale
Yes, pick (A), the average person will understand that analogy best. See you at Sotheby’s. Or maybe Christie’s.
Oops, I Did it Again
Ben Bernanke quote from economist Milton Friedman's ninetieth birthday party in 2002: "Let me end my talk by abusing slightly my status as an official representative of the Federal Reserve System. I would like to say to Milton and Anna: Regarding the Great Depression. You're right, we did it. We're very sorry. But thanks to you, we won't do it again."
LBOTC: I guess we’re not that innocent.
Another Fine Mess
House Banking Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-Massachusetts): “The private sector got us into this mess. The government has to get us out of it.”
LBOTC: We suspect this is another fine mess you have gotten us into. We remember a story in Time Magazine a few years back about how your houseguest was running a prostitution service out of your apartment. Talk about your lack of oversight skills.
Worst Sports Analogy
Barney Frank on John McCain stepping into the negotiations:
"It's the longest Hail Mary pass in the history of either football or Marys."
LBOTC: And what do you know about football or Marys?
Worst Cooking Analogy
Mike Huckabee (R-Arkansas): The very people who burned the Thanksgiving turkey now want to cook the Christmas dinner.
LBOTC: It’s still September. The turkey would still be wandering around the barnyard.
So Sorry to Embarrass You
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson (R): "I share the outrage people have. It's embarrassing to look at this. I think it's embarrassing to the United States of America. There's a lot of blame to go around."
LBOTC: You’re embarrassed? No, you are the embarrassment. You can always go back where you came from to Goldman Sachs, which I noticed Warren Buffet just bailed out with $5 billion. Or maybe now you can’t go back?
Did You Also Miss Your Kids’ School Plays?
Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd (D-Connecticut): "We've got to get this right. There is no second act,"
LBOTC: Mr. Dodd, how do you know there is only one act? Are you the playwright for this tragedy? We’ve been watching this show for a year now and it feels more like the fourth or fifth act. Did you miss the start of this show because you were running for President? We know you moved your family to Iowa before the caucuses and put your kids in school there. Who was minding the store back in Washington, DC?
The Show Must Go On
Bill Clinton (D) to Tom Brokaw on Thursday: “Listen, if we can just get out of this thing now and get the show back on the road, we will have learned quite a lot that's good for us.”
LBOTC: Haven’t we seen this show before? And what is the lesson?
Bill Clinton: “Because people now recognize all over again what they had to learn in the depression and two or three times since, which is markets, if unaccountable at the margins, will self-destruct. They will cannibalize themselves.”
LBOTC: Are you describing the markets or politicians?
Least Appetizing Lunch
Mouse Minority Leader John Boehner (R) speaking to the Republican Caucus before the vote Monday called the bailout a “crap sandwich” but said he’d vote for it anyway when it came to the floor.
LBOTC: Way to rally the caucus, John.
Least Obama-Like Moment
Worst Pet Analogy
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D): “Chairman Bernanke is probably one of the foremost authorities in America on the subject of the Great Depression. I don’t know what was so great about the Depression, but that’s the name they give it. And we heard the secretary and the chairman tell us that this was a once in a hundred year phenomenon, this fiscal crisis was so drastic. Certainly once in 50 years, probably once in a hundred years. And how did it sneak up on us? So silently, almost on little cat feet.”
LBOTC: Have you been paying attention as the housing market tanked and gas prices sky-rocketed over the last 3 years?
Best Pet Analogy
Barry Goldwater, Jr.: Never let your dog watch your food, never let the Congress watch your money.
LBOTC: I know that dog, her name is Brandy.
Barack Obama also says he supports the bailout. But in his Illinois delegation Democrats Jesse Jackson, Jr. from Chicago, Bobby Rush from Chicago, Dan Lipinski from Western Springs, and Jerry Costello from Belleville voted against the bailout. Here in Massachusetts, Democrat Barney Frank, House Banking Committee Chairman, led the effort to craft and pass the bailout bill. But Democratic Representatives Bill Delahunt from Quincy, Stephen Lynch from South Boston, and John Tierney from Salem voted against the bailout. Those Democrats would have been enough votes to change the outcome, so we think Barack Obama has some hope that the failure of the bailout will not be as dire as some have predicted.
John McCain says he supports the bailout but could only get 65 Republicans in the House to vote for it, which was not enough to cancel the 95 Democrats who voted against it. Four Republican Representatives from McCain’s home state of Arizona and one Republican from his running mate Sarah Palin’s home state of Alaska voted against the bailout. That’s almost enough votes to change the result, so we think he too could have come up with enough votes if he had wanted too.
We’ve been listening to the debate, and find it somewhat wanting for the apparent gravity of the situation.
Painting with Taxpayer Dollars
Senator Charles Schumer (D-New York), dismissing John McCain's coming back to Washington, DC as a political stunt: "It's as if, you know, you're in the middle of drawing an amazing painting and someone else comes in and says, 'hey, come in, let me throw my brush marks on there.' It just doesn't make sense."
LBOTC: Chuck, We don’t think there has ever been a great artist named Chuck. We think we’re going to have to take your paintbrush away.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (R): “Just as you sell a painting at Sotheby's, until you sell it, nobody knows what it is worth."
LBOTC: A painting, Ben? You do understand you’re talking about our economy? Is this how this went down with your speechwriter?
(A) Sell a painting at Sotheby’s
(B) Sell your pound cows at the cattle auction
(C) Trade in your clunker for a new car
(D) List your plane on eBay
(E) Put your house up for sale
Yes, pick (A), the average person will understand that analogy best. See you at Sotheby’s. Or maybe Christie’s.
Oops, I Did it Again
Ben Bernanke quote from economist Milton Friedman's ninetieth birthday party in 2002: "Let me end my talk by abusing slightly my status as an official representative of the Federal Reserve System. I would like to say to Milton and Anna: Regarding the Great Depression. You're right, we did it. We're very sorry. But thanks to you, we won't do it again."
LBOTC: I guess we’re not that innocent.
Another Fine Mess
House Banking Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-Massachusetts): “The private sector got us into this mess. The government has to get us out of it.”
LBOTC: We suspect this is another fine mess you have gotten us into. We remember a story in Time Magazine a few years back about how your houseguest was running a prostitution service out of your apartment. Talk about your lack of oversight skills.
Worst Sports Analogy
Barney Frank on John McCain stepping into the negotiations:
"It's the longest Hail Mary pass in the history of either football or Marys."
LBOTC: And what do you know about football or Marys?
Worst Cooking Analogy
Mike Huckabee (R-Arkansas): The very people who burned the Thanksgiving turkey now want to cook the Christmas dinner.
LBOTC: It’s still September. The turkey would still be wandering around the barnyard.
So Sorry to Embarrass You
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson (R): "I share the outrage people have. It's embarrassing to look at this. I think it's embarrassing to the United States of America. There's a lot of blame to go around."
LBOTC: You’re embarrassed? No, you are the embarrassment. You can always go back where you came from to Goldman Sachs, which I noticed Warren Buffet just bailed out with $5 billion. Or maybe now you can’t go back?
Did You Also Miss Your Kids’ School Plays?
Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd (D-Connecticut): "We've got to get this right. There is no second act,"
LBOTC: Mr. Dodd, how do you know there is only one act? Are you the playwright for this tragedy? We’ve been watching this show for a year now and it feels more like the fourth or fifth act. Did you miss the start of this show because you were running for President? We know you moved your family to Iowa before the caucuses and put your kids in school there. Who was minding the store back in Washington, DC?
The Show Must Go On
Bill Clinton (D) to Tom Brokaw on Thursday: “Listen, if we can just get out of this thing now and get the show back on the road, we will have learned quite a lot that's good for us.”
LBOTC: Haven’t we seen this show before? And what is the lesson?
Bill Clinton: “Because people now recognize all over again what they had to learn in the depression and two or three times since, which is markets, if unaccountable at the margins, will self-destruct. They will cannibalize themselves.”
LBOTC: Are you describing the markets or politicians?
Least Appetizing Lunch
Mouse Minority Leader John Boehner (R) speaking to the Republican Caucus before the vote Monday called the bailout a “crap sandwich” but said he’d vote for it anyway when it came to the floor.
LBOTC: Way to rally the caucus, John.
Least Obama-Like Moment
Worst Pet Analogy
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D): “Chairman Bernanke is probably one of the foremost authorities in America on the subject of the Great Depression. I don’t know what was so great about the Depression, but that’s the name they give it. And we heard the secretary and the chairman tell us that this was a once in a hundred year phenomenon, this fiscal crisis was so drastic. Certainly once in 50 years, probably once in a hundred years. And how did it sneak up on us? So silently, almost on little cat feet.”
LBOTC: Have you been paying attention as the housing market tanked and gas prices sky-rocketed over the last 3 years?
Best Pet Analogy
Barry Goldwater, Jr.: Never let your dog watch your food, never let the Congress watch your money.
LBOTC: I know that dog, her name is Brandy.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Bill Clinton Praises John McCain's Greatness and Barack Obama's Potental Greatness
Appearing on Meet The Press this Sunday, Bill Clinton praised John McCain calling him a great man:
"What I mean by saying that about McCain is, you know, most people would've been broken by what he went through. Oh, we would've been happy just to give him an "atta boy" and a medal and let him wander through life. I, I think his greatness is that he keeps trying to come back to service without ever asking people to cut him any slack or feel sorry for him or any of that stuff because he was a POW."
And here's what he had to say about Barack Obama arriving at greatness:
"I mean, he was, you know, until he was in the State Senate until 2005 and then he began a campaign for president, which is, in all probability, will be successful, and those are very great accomplishments. But those are personal accomplishments. When he becomes president, he'll be doing things for the American people and for the world and he is--and the greatness will then become apparent because of the good he'll do. And I, I think that's what I very much believe is going to happen."
"What I mean by saying that about McCain is, you know, most people would've been broken by what he went through. Oh, we would've been happy just to give him an "atta boy" and a medal and let him wander through life. I, I think his greatness is that he keeps trying to come back to service without ever asking people to cut him any slack or feel sorry for him or any of that stuff because he was a POW."
And here's what he had to say about Barack Obama arriving at greatness:
"I mean, he was, you know, until he was in the State Senate until 2005 and then he began a campaign for president, which is, in all probability, will be successful, and those are very great accomplishments. But those are personal accomplishments. When he becomes president, he'll be doing things for the American people and for the world and he is--and the greatness will then become apparent because of the good he'll do. And I, I think that's what I very much believe is going to happen."
Cool Hand Newman
Paul Newman, the actor and philanthropist, passed away this weekend. He was 83. We found this fitting tribute: Sometimes nothing can be a pretty cool hand (the line that gives Cool Hand Luke its title).
Partial film list:
Somebody Up There Likes Me (1956) - Rocky before Rocky
The Long, Hot Summer (1958) - with Joanne Woodward, who would become his wife, and Orson Welles
Cat on a Hot Tin Roof (1958) - with Liz Taylor and Burl Ives
The Young Philadelphians (1959) - why I wanted to be a corporate tax attorney (trust me, the glamour is overrated)
Exodus (1960) - directed by the great Otto Preminger
The Hustler (1961) - with the immortal Jackie Gleason
Hud (1963) - "the man with the barbed wire soul"
Harper (1966) - his classic private eye role
Cool Hand Luke (1967) - his best role
Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid (1969) - his best film
The Life and Times of Judge Roy Bean (1972) - he is "the law west of the Pecos"
The Sting (1973) - his best caper movie
The Towering Inferno (1974) - his only sellout movie
Slap Shot (1977) - his classic sports comedy
Absence of Malice (1981) - with Sally Field
The Verdict (1982) - why I didn't want to become a personal injury lawyer
The Color of Money (1986) - Oscar for Best Actor, with Tom Cruise
Fat Man and Little Boy (1989) - all about the bomb, with John Cusack
Mr. and Mrs. Bridge (1990) - I love the tornado scene
Nobody's Fool (1994) - his chick flick
Road to Perdition (2002) - Oscar for Best Supporting Actor, with Tom Hanks
Empire Falls (2003) - Emmy for Outstanding Supporting Actor
He was nominated six times for the Best Actor Oscar before winning for The Color of Money (not his best performance) and once afterward.
Other notable accomplishments:
In World War II, he was dropped from Navy pilot training due to colorblindness and went on to fly from aircraft carriers as a radioman and tail gunner in the Avenger torpedo bomber.
He appeared on Broadway in Picnic, The Desperate Hours, and Sweet Bird of Youth.
He was 19th (out of 20) on President Richard Nixon's enemies list (compiled by Charles Colson).
He was an avid auto racer. He won several championships at Sports Car Club of America events, finished second at the 24 Hours of Le Mans in 1979, and won his class at the 24 Hours of Daytona in 1995 at age 70.
His Newman's Own line of food products (which includes salad dressing, pasta sauce, lemonade, popcorn, salsa, and wine) has donated over $250 million to charity.
That's not nothing.
Partial film list:
Somebody Up There Likes Me (1956) - Rocky before Rocky
The Long, Hot Summer (1958) - with Joanne Woodward, who would become his wife, and Orson Welles
Cat on a Hot Tin Roof (1958) - with Liz Taylor and Burl Ives
The Young Philadelphians (1959) - why I wanted to be a corporate tax attorney (trust me, the glamour is overrated)
Exodus (1960) - directed by the great Otto Preminger
The Hustler (1961) - with the immortal Jackie Gleason
Hud (1963) - "the man with the barbed wire soul"
Harper (1966) - his classic private eye role
Cool Hand Luke (1967) - his best role
Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid (1969) - his best film
The Life and Times of Judge Roy Bean (1972) - he is "the law west of the Pecos"
The Sting (1973) - his best caper movie
The Towering Inferno (1974) - his only sellout movie
Slap Shot (1977) - his classic sports comedy
Absence of Malice (1981) - with Sally Field
The Verdict (1982) - why I didn't want to become a personal injury lawyer
The Color of Money (1986) - Oscar for Best Actor, with Tom Cruise
Fat Man and Little Boy (1989) - all about the bomb, with John Cusack
Mr. and Mrs. Bridge (1990) - I love the tornado scene
Nobody's Fool (1994) - his chick flick
Road to Perdition (2002) - Oscar for Best Supporting Actor, with Tom Hanks
Empire Falls (2003) - Emmy for Outstanding Supporting Actor
He was nominated six times for the Best Actor Oscar before winning for The Color of Money (not his best performance) and once afterward.
Other notable accomplishments:
In World War II, he was dropped from Navy pilot training due to colorblindness and went on to fly from aircraft carriers as a radioman and tail gunner in the Avenger torpedo bomber.
He appeared on Broadway in Picnic, The Desperate Hours, and Sweet Bird of Youth.
He was 19th (out of 20) on President Richard Nixon's enemies list (compiled by Charles Colson).
He was an avid auto racer. He won several championships at Sports Car Club of America events, finished second at the 24 Hours of Le Mans in 1979, and won his class at the 24 Hours of Daytona in 1995 at age 70.
His Newman's Own line of food products (which includes salad dressing, pasta sauce, lemonade, popcorn, salsa, and wine) has donated over $250 million to charity.
That's not nothing.
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Obama Too Elitist for Lynn Forester de Rothschild
The knives came out when big-time Hillary Clinton supporter Lynn Forester de Rothschild endorsed John McCain. Yes, many call her Lady de Rothschild due to her marriage to Sir Evelyn Robert Adrian de Rothschild, a scion of the banking family. But she says she is just a middle class New Jersey girl at heart:
Saturday, September 27, 2008
McCain Proposes League of Democracies
John McCain proposed a new League of Democracies to replace the United Nations during last night's debate:
"I've had conversation with foreign leaders about forming a league of democracies. Let's be clear and let's have some straight talk. The Russians are preventing significant action in the United Nations Security Council. I have proposed a league of democracies, a group of people - a group of countries that share common interests, common values, common ideals, they also control a lot of the world's economic power. ... So I am convinced that together we can, with the French, with the British, with the Germans and other countries, democracies around the world"
That's an interesting notion. Of course, the French, British, and Germans have already joined such a league. It is called the European Union. And we think we've heard that "together we can" slogan before.
Barack Obama's response that we need "some cooperation with some countries like Russia and China that are not democracies" also merits some consideration.
"I've had conversation with foreign leaders about forming a league of democracies. Let's be clear and let's have some straight talk. The Russians are preventing significant action in the United Nations Security Council. I have proposed a league of democracies, a group of people - a group of countries that share common interests, common values, common ideals, they also control a lot of the world's economic power. ... So I am convinced that together we can, with the French, with the British, with the Germans and other countries, democracies around the world"
That's an interesting notion. Of course, the French, British, and Germans have already joined such a league. It is called the European Union. And we think we've heard that "together we can" slogan before.
Barack Obama's response that we need "some cooperation with some countries like Russia and China that are not democracies" also merits some consideration.
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