April Will Be the Cruelest Month, for Ted Cruz

April is the cruellest month, breeding
Lilacs out of the dead land

Ted Cruz should be riding high off his win in Wisconsin last night, but his victory speech didn't sound it, and that's because he can smell the lilacs coming up in the Atlantic Coast primaries later this month. Forget the polls, here are the odds, according to Pivit:

State	Date	Delegates	Trump	Cruz	Kasich
New York	April 19	95	99%	1%	1%
Connecticut	April 26	28	93%	5%	2%
Delaware	April 26	16	92%	8%	<1%
Maryland	April 26	38	68%	32%	<1%
Pennsylvania	April 26	71	87%	13%	<1%
Rhode Island	April 26	19	92%	6%	<1%
Indiana	May 3	57	18%	82%	<1%
Nebraska	May 10	36	2%	98%	<1%
West Virginia	May 10	34	84%	16%	<1%
Oregon	May 17	28	20%	80%	<1%
Washington	May 24	44	17%	83%	<1%
California	June 7	172	58%	42%	<1%
Montana	June 7	27	2%	98%	<1%
New Jersey	June 7	51	97%	2%	1%
New Mexico	June 7	24	27%	73%	<1%
South Dakota	June 7	29	7%	93%	<1%

So Ted Cruz is likely to lose the next 6 contests. The month of May may be better for Cruz, where he is in line to win 4 of 5 states, unless his voters lose faith, which could very well happen under the crush of April's cruelties. If he can keep his voters motivated, we're off to the contested convention, with my calculations showing Donald Trump finishing with 1190 delegates, just short of the 1237 he needs to clinch before the convention. I have a theory about the contested convention: either Donald Trump will be the nominee or he'll get to pick the nominee.

The Democrats may have a contested convention too. Because of their super-delegate system, Hillary Clinton would have to win close to 60% of the elected delegates to win the nomination outright before the convention. But she's 2.4 million votes ahead of Bernie Sanders, even after her loss in Wisconsin last night, so I imagine she'll be able to hunt up enough delegates in the end.

Update 4/27/2016: Donald Trump now looks to have overtaken Ted Cruz in Oregon, Washington, and New Mexico which puts him on track in my ledger for 1277 delegates which is 40 more than he would need to clinch the nomination.