Hillary Clinton – pretty much on game plan, hugged her husband, kissed her daughter
Barack Obama – forgot to manage his expectations
Edwards – fast becoming the forgotten man
Richardson – still the best candidate in the race
McCain – how does he do it?
Huckabee – and who again is Huckabee?
Guiliani – where’s Rudy?
Thompson – what, too lazy to drop out?
Ron Paul – why, no surprise?
Romney – the Mr. Olympics spin is two silvers and a gold (in case you missed it, the win was Wyoming)
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Friday, January 4, 2008
Iowa caucus results
So Obama wins Iowa and Hillary comes in third (guess those blackberry messages went unanswered). Huckabee looks like someone Obama could beat. Things do not look good for Hillary. I saw somewhere that more absentee ballots have already been cast in Florida than people who voted in Iowa (of course, Florida was kicked out of the Democratic party). And CNN says Hillary still leads in the delegate count 154 for Hillary to 50 for Obama to 33 for Edwards (the fix is still in).
I think Thompson was hoping he would get few enough votes in Iowa so that he could honorably drop out, as Biden and Dodd did on the other side. So by getting a few more votes than may have been expected, Thompson may have to stay in. Sometimes Iowans are just mean.
I think Thompson was hoping he would get few enough votes in Iowa so that he could honorably drop out, as Biden and Dodd did on the other side. So by getting a few more votes than may have been expected, Thompson may have to stay in. Sometimes Iowans are just mean.
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Revoke birthright citizenship
I saw the new Ron Paul ad. It had a good feel until he hit the phrase “revoke birthright citizenship”. Here’s how that gets played back if someone wants to go after him: “Ron Paul wants to revoke YOUR birthright as a US citizen”. But Fox did a story on him, and the couple of hundred college kids he has working phones in Iowa.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Iowa Up, New Hampshire on Deck
The Iowa Caucuses are tomorrow night, and New Hampshire votes next Tuesday.
For the Democrats, look for Hillary to Eke out a narrow victory in Iowa and a wider victory in New Hampshire. Obama and Edwards will give Clinton a run in Iowa, but with the operatives at the caucuses armed with cell phones and blackberries, expect the fix to be in. A caucus is a two hour or longer meeting, which means you can walk in a Biden man and walk out a Clinton gal. No cameras in the war room this time, I’m guessing.
For the Republicans it is Romney v. Huckabee in Iowa and Romney v. McCain in New Hampshire. Romney will lose one or both of these. Look for a surprise second or third place finish for Ron Paul.
Massachusetts has quietly moved its primary up from March 4th to February 5th. That will give Massachusetts a voice in the first big round of primaries, as the presumptive nominee for both parties will likely get picked on February 5th when 23 states are set to vote. Ohio is still on March 4 (if it is still close, Ohio could be the kingmaker or queenmaker).
Reply: Robert Novak is putting Hillary at 3rd in Iowa, which is good news for Obama and Edwards supporters.
A: Hillary will win the 3-way. If the frontrunner loses, that helps everyone else: If Obama had the best chance to beat Clinton, Edwards could ensure she loses by throwing him a few votes and, if Edwards had the best chance, Obama could throw him a few votes. But since it’s so close they’ll both play for the win. Keep in mind that back in 1992 Bill Clinton finished 3rd in Iowa and 2nd in New Hampshire.
For the Democrats, look for Hillary to Eke out a narrow victory in Iowa and a wider victory in New Hampshire. Obama and Edwards will give Clinton a run in Iowa, but with the operatives at the caucuses armed with cell phones and blackberries, expect the fix to be in. A caucus is a two hour or longer meeting, which means you can walk in a Biden man and walk out a Clinton gal. No cameras in the war room this time, I’m guessing.
For the Republicans it is Romney v. Huckabee in Iowa and Romney v. McCain in New Hampshire. Romney will lose one or both of these. Look for a surprise second or third place finish for Ron Paul.
Massachusetts has quietly moved its primary up from March 4th to February 5th. That will give Massachusetts a voice in the first big round of primaries, as the presumptive nominee for both parties will likely get picked on February 5th when 23 states are set to vote. Ohio is still on March 4 (if it is still close, Ohio could be the kingmaker or queenmaker).
Reply: Robert Novak is putting Hillary at 3rd in Iowa, which is good news for Obama and Edwards supporters.
A: Hillary will win the 3-way. If the frontrunner loses, that helps everyone else: If Obama had the best chance to beat Clinton, Edwards could ensure she loses by throwing him a few votes and, if Edwards had the best chance, Obama could throw him a few votes. But since it’s so close they’ll both play for the win. Keep in mind that back in 1992 Bill Clinton finished 3rd in Iowa and 2nd in New Hampshire.
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Documentaries you ought to see
" Whatever your opinion of Ralph Nader - you ought to see this documentary film about him.Ralph is the Unreasonable Man. "-Dal LaMagna
An Unreasonable Man is a good movie but it has the problem of making you feel that our politics began in the 1960s. Other documentaries I would recommend:
The Atomic Cafe – 80s look at the American side of the early cold war nuclear confrontation. It’s fascinating to see Nixon debating with Kruschev, and suggesting the Soviet Union may be ahead in the thrust of their rockets but we are ahead in other things such as our color television (Kennedy then went on color television and pummeled Nixon for the missile gap on behalf of the military industrial complex, though this is not in the movie).
Heir to an Execution – granddaughter Ivy Meeropol looks at the Rosenberg executions. The Greenglass family is mostly not talking to the Rosenberg family to this day. It turns out that Julius Rosenberg’s Soviet code name was “Liberal.” Nixon is seen in his own twisted way advocating a kind of restraint in pursuing communists in the U.S. (“if you’re going to shoot rats, you should shoot straight”).
The long history of the left in the United States is one of variously courting the Democratic Party, being courted by it, fighting the Democratic Party, and being demonized by it. So what Nader did in 2000 was not so surprising given this history, as well as his own. It is interesting that after the election Gore stepped away from taking on the type of projects that would cause middle America (the ironically named “red” states) to regret not voting for him in 2000. It has become clear now that Gore chose a path instead to embarrass the left for not supporting him.
An Unreasonable Man is a good movie but it has the problem of making you feel that our politics began in the 1960s. Other documentaries I would recommend:
The Atomic Cafe – 80s look at the American side of the early cold war nuclear confrontation. It’s fascinating to see Nixon debating with Kruschev, and suggesting the Soviet Union may be ahead in the thrust of their rockets but we are ahead in other things such as our color television (Kennedy then went on color television and pummeled Nixon for the missile gap on behalf of the military industrial complex, though this is not in the movie).
Heir to an Execution – granddaughter Ivy Meeropol looks at the Rosenberg executions. The Greenglass family is mostly not talking to the Rosenberg family to this day. It turns out that Julius Rosenberg’s Soviet code name was “Liberal.” Nixon is seen in his own twisted way advocating a kind of restraint in pursuing communists in the U.S. (“if you’re going to shoot rats, you should shoot straight”).
The long history of the left in the United States is one of variously courting the Democratic Party, being courted by it, fighting the Democratic Party, and being demonized by it. So what Nader did in 2000 was not so surprising given this history, as well as his own. It is interesting that after the election Gore stepped away from taking on the type of projects that would cause middle America (the ironically named “red” states) to regret not voting for him in 2000. It has become clear now that Gore chose a path instead to embarrass the left for not supporting him.
Friday, December 14, 2007
Wake me up in 2012.
Take on the Republican Candidates From Boston Beatnik:
Alan Keyes = Who?
Duncan Hunter = Nuts.
Fred Thompson = Done.
Rudy Giuliani = Asshole.
Mitt Romney = More packaged than a TV Dinner.
Mike Huckabee = Creationist. (How nice for you.)
John McCain = Broke.
Ron Paul = Brilliant.
We must end the war. Watch this short video::http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_zDnBe6R5g
If you want to end the war. Vote for Ron Paul.
Reply: that's great. but i will never vote republican.
Reply: Yeah, me neither, I can't trust em. Just can't.
A: It will likely all be over before Massachusetts votes in March anyway.
If you want, you can vote for Ron Paul in the fall when he drops out of the Republican Party and runs as an independent.
Looks like with Oprah behind him, Obama might win enough states that Hillary will have to put him on the ticket. So it will be Clinton/Obama in the fall (or maybe Obama/Clinton if he does so well she has to put him at the top of the ticket). Notice that she's started firing people who sling mud at Obama. That's because they are going to run together, and don't want to damage the product. And that's your next President.
The war will be over by summer. Bush will proclaim V-I Day a few weeks before the Republican convention in September. Here's how it plays out. If we are losing in Iraq, the Republicans are out. And if we are finally winning in Iraq, we don't need the Republicans to run the war anymore anyway.
I suspect what the Republicans are trying to do now is show enough weakness that the Democrats vote their heart and nominate Obama. Then they'll try to mess with the Democrats over the summer with the V-I Day thing. And in the fall, they'll try to get their candidates elected to Congress on the fear of a liberal/left Presidency. And if as is likely they come up short, they'll be back with the same fear mongering in 2010. Plus there will be some mistakes of inexperience to beat the drum on. So they fight in the Senate to block legislation for a couple of years, hope the Supreme Court shuts down the stuff they find truly outrageous, and put their money on winning back the House or Senate in 2010.
Of course, this could all be prevented if the Democrats would show some sense and nominate Richardson, who is their only qualified candidate. That would require some people to step aside who just don’t have it in them. And they'd have to put aside the pet issues, and focus on getting something done that they can run on for reelection. Also not in them.
So wake me up in 2012. Everything until then is foreordained.
Alan Keyes = Who?
Duncan Hunter = Nuts.
Fred Thompson = Done.
Rudy Giuliani = Asshole.
Mitt Romney = More packaged than a TV Dinner.
Mike Huckabee = Creationist. (How nice for you.)
John McCain = Broke.
Ron Paul = Brilliant.
We must end the war. Watch this short video::http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_zDnBe6R5g
If you want to end the war. Vote for Ron Paul.
Reply: that's great. but i will never vote republican.
Reply: Yeah, me neither, I can't trust em. Just can't.
A: It will likely all be over before Massachusetts votes in March anyway.
If you want, you can vote for Ron Paul in the fall when he drops out of the Republican Party and runs as an independent.
Looks like with Oprah behind him, Obama might win enough states that Hillary will have to put him on the ticket. So it will be Clinton/Obama in the fall (or maybe Obama/Clinton if he does so well she has to put him at the top of the ticket). Notice that she's started firing people who sling mud at Obama. That's because they are going to run together, and don't want to damage the product. And that's your next President.
The war will be over by summer. Bush will proclaim V-I Day a few weeks before the Republican convention in September. Here's how it plays out. If we are losing in Iraq, the Republicans are out. And if we are finally winning in Iraq, we don't need the Republicans to run the war anymore anyway.
I suspect what the Republicans are trying to do now is show enough weakness that the Democrats vote their heart and nominate Obama. Then they'll try to mess with the Democrats over the summer with the V-I Day thing. And in the fall, they'll try to get their candidates elected to Congress on the fear of a liberal/left Presidency. And if as is likely they come up short, they'll be back with the same fear mongering in 2010. Plus there will be some mistakes of inexperience to beat the drum on. So they fight in the Senate to block legislation for a couple of years, hope the Supreme Court shuts down the stuff they find truly outrageous, and put their money on winning back the House or Senate in 2010.
Of course, this could all be prevented if the Democrats would show some sense and nominate Richardson, who is their only qualified candidate. That would require some people to step aside who just don’t have it in them. And they'd have to put aside the pet issues, and focus on getting something done that they can run on for reelection. Also not in them.
So wake me up in 2012. Everything until then is foreordained.
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Is the United States Bankrupt?
So the US owes around $9,000,000,000,000. The US population is 300,000,000. That works out to $30,000 per person. If you borrowed that from a bank at 6% interest (home mortgage), that works about to about $1,800 per year, or $150 per month. Of course, the interest on the debt gets paid by income taxes, which do fall heavier on the rich because of the graduated tax rates.
For example, the US collected around 1,000,000,000,000 in income tax in 2006 and paid out 211,000,000,000 in interest. That is about 21 cents for every $1 of income tax. So, if someone paid $5,000 in federal income taxes that year, his share of the interest was $1050 or $87 per month. If someone else paid $50,000 in federal income taxes that year, her share of the interest was $10,500 or $875 per month.
For example, the US collected around 1,000,000,000,000 in income tax in 2006 and paid out 211,000,000,000 in interest. That is about 21 cents for every $1 of income tax. So, if someone paid $5,000 in federal income taxes that year, his share of the interest was $1050 or $87 per month. If someone else paid $50,000 in federal income taxes that year, her share of the interest was $10,500 or $875 per month.
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