Left Bank of the Charles

CNN Smacks the Ish Out of Roland Martin

2012-02-10T00:39:00.006-05:00

Roland Martin has gotten himself suspended from CNN for some tweets he made during the Super Bowl:

"Ain't no real bruhs going to H&M to buy some damn David Beckham underwear!"

"If a dude at your Super Bowl party is hyped about David Beckham's H&M underwear ad, smack the ish out of him!"

Here's is the David Beckham ad that got Roland so agitated:

Now Martin claims was that he was dissing Beckham as a soccer player, a sport that he does not give any respect. And he could also have been dissing the tattoos. Or dissing that particular style of underwear, which looks uncomfortably restricting, for a real bruh, if you know what I mean.

Earlier in the day Martin had tweeted:

"Who the hell was that New England Patriot they just showed in a head to toe pink suit? Oh, he needs a visit from #teamwhipdatass."

Here's the picture of that sharp-dressed man:

Obviously Roland's remark is an offensive African-American pimp stereotype. Oh wait, Roland is African-American, that can't be it. Offensive to New England Patriots fans? Nothing wrong with that, outside of New England.

So who did take offense? Maybe we should cut to the obligatory CNN apology.

"Roland Martin's Tweets were regrettable and offensive. Language that demeans is inconsistent with the values and culture of our organization, and is not tolerated. We have been giving careful consideration to this matter, and Roland will not be appearing on our air for the time being."

Well CNN is clearly apologizing to someone, we just don't know who. Maybe Roland Martin's apology will clear this up:

"To those who construed my comment as being anti-gay or homophobic or advancing violence, I'm truly sorry. I can certainly understand how someone could come to a different conclusion than the one I meant. I'm disheartened that my words would embolden prejudice. While public debate over social issues is healthy, no matter which side someone takes, there is no room for debate as to whether we need to be respectful of others."

I'm glad we settled that. We can't have anyone tweeting offensive remarks unless we know who is offended. Maybe the Gay and Lesbian Aliance Against Defamation thought "ish" was a homophoic slur. Actually it's hip-hop slang for "shit" as in "smack the shit out of him." Someone at GLAAD needs racial and cultural awareness training. The meeting between Roland Martin and has already been scheduled.

Who is Roland Martin? He's a CNN political commentator who just a year ago was being talked about as anchor for a show on the competing network MSNBC.

I guess he won't be going anywhere any time soon in that shirt, except maybe to that meeting with GLAAD. Or he could wear his pinkish-organgish shirt that the Washington Post is flaunting.

The Hollywood Reporter also puts the pink on Roland:

I'm getting the strong impression from these photos that Roland Martin is a stylish dresser who likes to express his very strong opinions about fashion choices he disagrees with. He is not a man afraid to wear pink.

Nonetheless, the case against Roland Martin was judged open and shut by GLAAD's Communities of African Descent Media Field Strategist Kimberley McLeod:

"This brings me to my next point, gay men, lesbians, transgender folk, or any other oppressed minority, are NEVER wrong when they point out your privilege and/or hurtful words. I’ll say it again; THEY ARE ALWAYS RIGHT. As oppressed people, we dictate when what you’re saying is homophobic, transphobic, or generally problematic, you don’t. As a straight man, you do not get to define what homophobia looks like, sounds like, or feels like. Why? Because I said so. You have never and will never have to grapple with the harsh reality of negotiating your identity as a Black gay man, and that, in-and-of-itself, disqualifies any opinions you may have on delineating homophobic actions, statements, or stances. Capisce?"

Capisce? That's the phrase associated with implied threats of mafia violence. Italian-Americans will be offended.

Roland Martin's original sin is this post on his website from February 2006:

"My wife, an ordained Baptist minister for 20 years, has counseled many men and women to walk away from the gay lifestyle, and to live a chaste life. She has asked heterosexual men and women to abstain from sex until marriage. For her, the obligation is to her calling as a minister of the Word, rather than bowing to societal pressures. She loves gay and lesbian church members dearly, and prays with them, talks to them, and breaks bread with them. But what she cannot do is compromise the integrity of the teachings of Christ."

For that offense, as much as for the Super Bowl tweets, Roland Martin will be glaad-handed into bending it like Beckham. But let's remember, people come to Baptist ministers for counsel voluntarily. Can you condemn the minister without condemning the ministered? And when did we start condemning the minister’s spouse?

So it comes around that Acting GLAAD President Mike Thompson has had to issue his own form of apology:

"GLAAD is aware that several members of the LGBT community have used racial epithets and race-based insults toward Roland Martin, his family and broader African American community. We unequivocally condemn the use of racial slurs when addressing issues of homophobia and strongly discourage the use of hate speech in any context. We look forward to a healthy and productive dialogue with Roland Martin and members of the community."

That is truly bending it like Beckham.

Nancy Pelosi Going Viral "Tomorrow" with Attack on Stephen Colbert

2012-02-09T23:59:00.010-05:00

I can't decide whether this ad is coordinated or uncoordinated. Nancy Pelosi ends it with "Americans deserve a better tomorrow, today." The slogan for Stephen Colbert's Super PAC is "making a better tomorrow, tomorrow."

Only 304 views at the end of the day Thursday. Well, Nancy, you can always go viral tomorrow.

Update: 157,716 views as of 4pm EST Friday. Maybe this could go viral after all.

Republican Delegates Are Harder to Count Than Cattle

2012-02-08T22:56:00.000-05:00

A herd of cattle can be hard to count in the field. A small cow may be hard to spot walking behind a larger cow. A cow may mess up your count by turning back after she has gone by you, others may rush past. But usually you can at least get a rough count.

Candidate	NYT	WSJ	CNN	FOX
Mitt Romney	94	112	115	107
Rick Santorum	71	72	34	45
Newt Gingrich	29	32	38	32
Ron Paul	8	9	20	9
Jon Huntsman	2	2	0	0
Total	204	227	207	193

We may not get a true count on those Republican delegates until the August roundup in the arena at the national convention in Tampa.

Rick Santorum Proves Nice Guys Finish First in Middle America

2012-02-08T03:02:00.001-05:00

The Republican race has a new frontrunner, with Rick Santorum sweeping the field in 3 states with 40% and more of the vote.

With Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich duking it out with negative ads and snarky comments, and Ron Paul calling everyone unconstitutional, Republican voters issued the ultimate rebuke by voting for the nice guy Rick Santorum.

That means Santorum has one half of the states that have voted too date:

Rick Santorum: Iowa, Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri

Mitt Romney: New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada

Newt Gingrich: South Carolina

Ron Paul: None

In Missouri the rebuke was especially severe with Santorum winning every county and racking up 55% statewide with Newt Gingrich not even on the ballot. It may be all over but the shouting for Newt. He needs to prove he can win outside the South or his campaign has no place to go. The nail in the coffin would be if he loses his home state of Georgia on March 6.

The Romney campaign will have its own problems if Santorum keeps winning Midwestern states Mitt Romney had expected to win. Mitt faces the acid test in his birth state of Michigan on February 28. All bets are off if Romney loses Michigan to Santorum.

Actually, it appears that the effort of evangelicals to coalesce behind Rick Santorum is beginning to show results. That may not bode well for Rick in the voting in Maine which is ongoing or in retiree-heavy Arizona which votes alongside Michigan on February 28. But it could bode well for the Washington caucus on March 3. That could set Rick up for the big prize on Super Tuesday, March 6.

Clint Eastwood for President

2012-02-07T19:17:00.004-05:00

I think I've found my candidate for President:

This is a Chrysler ad. And if "thanks for the bailout" is one of its messages, I can only respond "you're welcome." That's not to say that I supported the bailout, but I appreciate the thank you nonetheless.

As to Karl Rove and certain other windbags who think this is some sort of subliminal Obama reelection ad, I have this thought to offer:

Now it happens I drive a Chrysler, a Jeep Cherokee that I bought in December 1992. It has been such a high-quality American-made product that I haven't needed another in these last 19 years. No airbags or electric door locks. You want to open the window, you turn the hand crank. They don't make them like they used to.

Here is the Super Bowl ad Chrysler ran a year ago with Eminem largely expounding on the same themes:

YouTube shows 4,404,648 views so far on this year's Eastwood ad and 14,354,069 views for Eminem. The bad news for Chrysler is that the GM Silverado ad at this year's Super Bowl did better at 5,745,841 views so far:

GM, you can keep your new Silverado, in the event of apocalypse I'll take my Jeep with its limited electronics.

By the way, the Bush administration authorized the $17.4 billion bailout for GM and Chrysler in December 2008. The incoming Obama administration was left to the task of administering the bailout. I do respect Ford, which didn't take a bailout. Maybe my next vehicle will be a Ford.

The problem the auto industry faced in 2008 and 2009 was not of their creation. Most people can't buy a car without a loan. And the banks stopped lending, not because credit risks on auto loans went south, but because the banks went south themselves by losing so much money in the housing market collapse.

Update: As usual, Iowahawk kicks it between the goalposts with A Fistful of Rebates.

Groundhog Day for Mitt Romney

2012-02-02T01:17:00.001-05:00

Here in Massachusetts we had a beautiful 55 degree day on February 1, with another warm but raining day in the outlook for February 2. It looks like we'll be getting an early spring.

What about our own Mitt Romney, who certainly sprang to life with his big win in the sunshine state of Florida? If Mitt Romney wakes up this morning and sees his shadow, that means there will be six more weeks of campaigning for the Republican nomination for President. But what if he doesn't see his shadow? If this gloomy fight goes on state by state, just how long can it go?

March 24 in Louisiana - the earliest date Mitt can clinch the nomination, but that would assume the impossible of winning all the delegates even in states with proportional allocation rather than winner-take-all.

May 15 in Oregon and Nebraska - it's reasonable to assume Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul will win a third or more of the delegates across proportional states and a few winner-take-all states. If Mitt wins two-thirds of the delegates, he doesn't clinch until May 15.

June 5 in California and 4 other states - If Mitt is winning less than two-thirds of delegates, it will go all the way to June 5.

June 26 in Utah - as the last state to vote, Utah is the tie-breaker, and in that case we can expect the Mormon voters of Utah to give the win to Mitt.

So Mitt Romney can expect a long winter before he clinches the nomination. He'll be lucky to get one of those classic New England springs that linger about a week before summer arrives.

What are the wild cards and potential game changers?

Missouri on February 7 - Rick Santorum goes head to head with Mitt Romney in this nonbiding primary. Rick could sure use a win to regain his lost Iowa momentum.

Virginia on March 6 - only Ron Paul is on the ballot against Mitt Romney. If conservatives want to demonstrate they can beat Mitt Romney by consolidating behind a single candidate, this is their chance to prove it.

Other southern states - looking at Mike Huckabee in 2008, as well as the results in South Carolina and the Florida panhandle in 2012, it would be no surprise if Newt Gingrich wins some states in the South. The endorsement of Texas Governor Rick Perry might even win Newt that big prize. More Mitt wins in the South to follow Florida would seal Newt's fate.

Industrial states - Mitt would face a real threat if Rick Santorum can put it together in his own home state of Pennsylvania and midwestern states like Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. The primary calendar does not cooperate, putting Pennsylvania a long way away on April 24.

Update: I don't know about the goundhog, but Mitt Romney did trump the field by winning the endorsement of the wet raccoon:

The Voice of the Turtle Asks If We Are Ready for an American Spring

2012-01-30T01:15:00.002-05:00

I got up to Lowell this weekend to see a 69-year-old play, The Voice of the Turtle, at the Merrimac Repertory Theatre. The late January weather has been unseasonably warm and sunny and has felt almost like an early spring.

The play is set over an early spring April weekend in New York City in 1943. The main characters are a sergeant on leave from the U.S. Army and a young actress living in an apartment in the East Sixties near 3rd Avenue. They are thrown together for the weekend through happenstance, and love blossoms as you might expect.

(Photo by Megan Moore)

A very lovely Hanley Smith plays the sweet young actress and a suitable William Connell plays the serviceman. I say suitable because a man can't watch him play opposite Hanley Smith without arousing a little jealousy. Megan Byrne rounds out the cast as the three who makes a crowd.

The servicemen is a little jaded being seven years gone from living the gay (1940s gay, not 2010s gay) life of a playboy in Paris before his family's business succumbed to the Great Depression and called him home to Pittsburgh. All he's got to show for that are his noncommissioned sergeant's stripes - a former one percenter in today's parlance. He's about to go overseas to fight for freedom, although as he says you don't ask a soldier what he's fighting for.

And that's where the play dovetails with our own times. The times they are not so much a-changin' as depressin' is the song we've all been listening too. But perhaps we need to open our ears to the song of the turtle dove:

My beloved spake, and said unto me,
Rise up, my love, my fair one, and come away.
For, lo, the winter is past,
the rain is over and gone;
the flowers appear on the earth;
the time of the singing of birds is come,
and the voice of the turtle is heard in our land;
the fig tree putteth forth her green figs,
and the vines with the tender grape give a good smell.
Arise, my love, my fair one, and come away.

The Song of Solomon 2:10-13 (King James version)

It is coincidentally the anniversary of the Arab Spring, the well-intentioned pro-democracy movement that probably will not turn out well. So are we ready for our own American Spring? We are probably not going to find that at a tea party rally or an occupy camp. We may be looking for that in politics when we really need to look inside ourselves. In truth it's probably not something we can find by going looking for it. But you never know. I think I will listen for the voice of the turtle.

Newt Gingrich Suffers His Gettysburg in Jacksonville Debate

2012-01-27T00:04:00.002-05:00

The CNN televised debate in Jacksonville, Florida may go down as Newt Gingrich's Gettysburg.

Yesterday won't be over until tomorrow and tomorrow began ten thousand years ago. For every Southern boy fourteen years old, not once but whenever he wants it, there is the instant when it's still not yet two o'clock on that July afternoon in 1863, the brigades are in position behind the rail fence, the guns are laid and ready in the woods and the furled flags are already loosened to break out and Pickett himself with his long oiled ringlets and his hat in one hand probably and his sword in the other looking up the hill waiting for Longstreet to give the word and it's all in the balance, it hasn't happened yet, it hasn't even begun yet, it not only hasn't begun yet but there is still time for it not to begin against that position and those circumstances ...

Yesterday many were giving Newt Gingrich a 50/50 chance to win the Florida primary. From there he would stand a good chance of winning the Republican nomination and marching against Barack Obama in the fall election.

But tonight's debate in Jacksonville, Florida was a rout. Newt charged Mitt Romney on unfair ads, on investments, on immigration. And Mitt repulsed every charge. Newt, in full retreat after a Mitt countercharge calling Newt repulsive, couldn't even defend the grandmother ground on immigration:

Rick Santorum did make some inroads against Mitt Romney on health care. And Ron Paul came across extremely well. But for Newt Gingrich, who has lived by the debate, it was death by debate.

The Civil War raged on for 22 months after Gettysburg. The end in Florida will come when voters go to the polls on Tuesday, January 31. If Newt loses, the Gingrich campaign isn't over. But I suspect the moment before the debate opened in Jacksonville will be Newt Gingrich's high water mark.

Would You Tax this Ukulele Player as Much as His Secretary?

2012-01-25T21:50:00.000-05:00

President Barack Obama says he wants to tax billionaire Warren Buffett as much as his secretary Debbie Bosanek. But can she play the ukulele? By the way, Mr. President, Deb prefers to be called assistant, not secretary.

Warrens says he has surveyed his staff and they pay between 33% and 41% in combined federal income tax and payroll taxes, whereas he pays just 15% on much of his income.

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Deb probably does quite well, and if any of her compensation has come in Berkshire Hathaway stock, she may well be a millionaire or multi-millionaire.

So the Buffett Rule question comes down to this: Should the very rich pay tax rates that are substantially lower than those who are merely very well off? No, they shouldn't. But is the answer to raise the tax rates on the very rich, or to lower the tax rates on everybody else?

The 15% tax rate on capital gains and qualified dividends is what's at issue. President Reagan's 1986 tax reform law put that rate at 28%, the same as ordinary income such as wages. But since then the top tax rate for high earners of wages and business profits has been pushed up to 35%, while the tax rate for capital gains and qualified dividends has been dropped to 15%.

There is another side to this, which involves payroll taxes. Ordinary wage earners pay into social security and that can be as much or more than their income taxes for some lower income taxpayers. High earners pay into social security too on their wages, but not on their investment earnings. Only their wages are counted for social security benefits, so that should even out, except that social security is a not a very good deal.

Fact: Nancy Pelosi Will Never Be President, Newt Gingrich, Maybe

2012-01-25T18:40:00.000-05:00

Nancy Pelosi tells CNN's John King she knows something about Newt Gingrich and that is he will never be President of the United States:

I know something too, Nancy Pelosi will never be President. And that's a fact, not just a personal opinion or prediction.

Actually, the people who bet on such things only give New Gingrich a 6.3% chance of being elected President in 2012. Of course, he could also run in 2016, at 72. And long shots do sometimes win, or no one would bet on them.

We must remember that John King was a key part of the liberal media psyops campaign last week that propelled Newt Gingrich to victory in South Carolina last week. The other conspirators were Nancy Hass at Newsweek and the Daily Beast, Juan Williams at Fox News, and Brian Ross at ABC. Motive: Newt Gingrich would be a weaker challenger to President Obama in the fall election than Rick Santorum or Mitt Romney.

So what are Nancy Pelosi and John King up to here? The key may be what Nancy Pelosi also said about Newt Gingrich, "The Republicans, if they choose to nominate him, that's their prerogative. I don't even think that's going to happen."

Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents hate Newt Gingrich, and would never risk entering the Republican primaries to vote for him - unless they believed that was safe, that they could do that without running any real risk that Newt Gingrich might get elected President.

Now wouldn't it be funny if Democrats secured the Republican nomination for Newt Gingrich and then saw him elected President.

Newt Gingrich Still Playing Dog Ate My Homework on $1.6 Million Freddie Mac Contract

2012-01-24T03:54:00.000-05:00

Only in Washington, DC can you get a 15 page consulting contract that goes on and on for clause after clause but when it comes to the scope of work only has the barest phrase in a sentence on your compensation:

"Consultant will provide consulting and related services as requested by Freddie Mac's Director, Pubic Policy in exchange for which Freddie Mac will pay Consultant $25,000 for each full calendar month during which Consultant provides services."

For such "consulting and related services as requested" Newt Gingrich reportedly received a total of $1.6 million dollars over 6 years through his K Street lobbying firm the Gingrich Group.

Newt and Freddie Mac have also been asked to provide the deliverables on this contract, so that it can be seen exactly what advice Newt gave to this controversial agency that was at the center of the housing bubble. That of course assumes he actually did any work at all. When the school boy says his dog ate his homework you can be sure the boy never did the homework.

Newt's story has been that he offered his "advice as a historian" and there is one clause in the agreement that may have been directed to just that. Section 5(g) provides:

Suggestions. While providing Services and Deliverables, Consultant may make comments and suggestions that are outside the scope of Services ("Suggestions"). All Suggestions are provided on a purely voluntary basis and, in the absence of a separate agreement executed by both parties, will not create any obligation on the part of Freddie Mac. Freddie Mac will have the right to use Suggestions in such manner as it elects in its sole discretion, without obligation of any kind to Consultant.

You can bet Newt did prattle on with lots of comments and suggestions and alternate history lessons outside the scope of what he was hired to do. Maybe, in fact, offering random musings was all he ever did to earn his firm this $300,000 a year.

The bailout of Fredie Mac and Fannie Mae will cost taxpayers a minimum of $154 billion. The damage to home values in the U.S. due to the financial meltdown has been much greater.

What Is Newt Hiding in Gingrich Holdings, Inc.?

2012-01-23T01:21:00.001-05:00

Should politicians running for office have to release their tax returns? The argument that they shouldn't is outweighed by the fun of pawing through the politician's personal business.

Take Newt Gingrich, who released his 2010 tax returns last week. First, there are little things like seeing that he had $200,000 stashed in Bank India. Nothing illegal about that, and there's probably an innocent explanation. Maybe Newt did some consulting for that TV show Outsourced. I thought it was karma when that show got cancelled after two seasons last spring. Or maybe Newt got paid to do some outsourcing.

Newt's tax return also shows alimony of $19,800 and household employee wages of $14,774. That may shed some light on the motives of Newt's his ex-wife Marianne, the one who accused him of proposing an open marriage. Yep, my bastard ex-husband makes over $3 million a year and barely pays me more than his housekeeper.

Then there're the various Gingrich enterprises with names like Gingrich Holdings, Inc., Gingrich Productions, Inc., and Lubbers Agency Inc. (apparently named after a married daughter). Newt and his current wife Callista derive $2.97 million of their #3.14 million in income in the form of salaries and corporate earnings from the closely held companies, with no solid information as to where all those earnings came from. We do know a few years back that Newt did earn some serious money consulting for mortgage giant Freddie Mac, which subsequently had to be bailed out by taxpayers. But just how many other Freddie Macs are hiding in Gingrich Holdings? We'll likely never know.

And then there is the mystery of who actually owns Gingrich Holdings, Inc. The tax returns don't say, but cross-checking some of the numbers is revealing. Newt's Form 1040 Schedule A lists $68,493 in cash contributions to charity from his various companies. However the Form 990-PF for the Gingrich Foundation shows that it received a cash contribution from Gingrich Holdings, Inc. in the amount of $152,609. Since Newt and Callista only deducted 45% of that amount on their tax return, the inference is that someone else must own the remaining 55% of Gingrich Holdings, Inc.

That's a pretty powerful inference. Because if Newt and Callista's share of the $2,453,409 earnings from Gingrich Holdings, Inc. is only 45%, that means some unnamed person or persons earned $3,013,023 from Gingrich Holdings, Inc. So who owns Newt Gingrich? We already knew that he could be bought, that was the point of those ethics charges that caught up with him in the late 1990s. The question still to be answered is who may now own him (or 55% of his company).

Another tidbit is that when you add up all the taxes Newt and Callista paid in 2010 you come up with the princely sum of $1,159,260, or roughly 37% of their combined gross income. We should say thank you for that.

Also Newt and Callista, through their personal donations and Gingrich Foundation grants, gave $132,640 to charity in 2010. Again, they deserve a big thank you.

The View on Newt's Open Marriage

2012-01-20T01:52:00.005-05:00

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Newt Gingrich's ex-wife Marianne has a supposed bombshell. She says back in the 1990s Newt wanted an open marriage. It becomes clear from listening to her that what Newt really wanted was to continue seeing his then-mistress Callista without getting a divorce from his then-wife Marianne.

But is that an open marriage? To me, that term implies an ongoing non-monogamous romantic relationship with one's spouse. Husband's who continue to support their wives financially and perhaps even socially while also keeping company with a mistress are doing something different.

Putting this in the best light for Newt, he gave his wife the option to stay married if that's what she wanted. Marianne wanted a divorce, which he gave her, and he married his longtime mistress. And a marriage, as they say, is always respectable.

Now here's where I'm going to engage in some speculation. One part of Marianne's bombshell was that Newt told her that Callista was down with the open marriage idea. If that's true, is she still down with it now that she is Newt's current wife? I mean, one reason you might have a $500,000 credit line at Tiffany's is to smooth over any jealousy issues from such an arrangement. Because nothing says I really love you more than an expensive trinket that can be taken straight to the pawn shop.

So, can we expect more questions to Newt on this subject? John King from CNN tried at the South Carolina debate last night and got booed for his trouble.

But let's parse Newt's denial:

"The story is false. Every personal friend that I have who knew us in that period says the story is false. We offered several of them to ABC to prove it was false."

I think that proves too much. Marianne says she turned Newt down on the open marriage. So how would the personal friends know anything about there being an open marriage, if no one says there ever was one?

Here's the whole ABC interview:

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It's not news that Newt has gone through two divorces. The unasked question is not whether Newt Gingrich wanted an open marriage then but whether he is in one now and would be in one if he were elected President. Speculation aside, no evidence has been offered on that yet.

But don't worry too much about that. Back in December Newt made an unprecendented pledge that as President he would "uphold the institution of marriage through personal fidelity to my spouse and respect for the marital bonds of others." So there will be no swingers night at the Gingrich White House. But if he loses the election, all promises are off.

Newt Gingrich Beats Juan Williams in South Carolina Debate

2012-01-17T01:38:00.001-05:00

Newt Gingrich won the Republican Debate in South Carolina last night. Newt won by beating down Fox News commentator Juan Williams who was on the media panel asking questions to the remaining five candidates (Jon Huntsman, who dropped out over the weekend, was not missed).

Juan asked whether it was racist to call President Barack Obama the "Food Stamp President." That wasn't his exact wording but certainly the import of his question. The debate audience responded by giving Newt's answer a standing ovation.

But did Newt beat the other candidates?

Mitt Romney - did good enough to still be the man to beat.

Newt Gingrich - cemented his second place status.

Ron Paul - no real dent in his constituency which should be good for third.

Rick Santorum - he's the worst hurt by Newt's win and may have to settle for fourth.

Rick Perry - last chance to regain his credibility in the VP sweepstakes.

Update: Rick Perry may have sealed his VP fate by starting a beef with the country of Turkey by refering to it as "a country that is being ruled by what many would perceive to be Islamic terrorists."

Stephen Colbert for President of the United States of South Carolina

2012-01-15T18:33:00.002-05:00

"I'm just a one-man Lewis and Clark looking for my Sacajawea," announced Stephen Colbert in launching his exploratory committee for President of the United States of South Carolina.

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Americans for a Better Tomorrow, Tomorrow attacks Mitt the Ripper:

"As head of Bain Capital he bought companies, carved them up, and got rid of what he couldn't use. If Mitt Romney really believes 'Corporation are people, my friend,' then Mitt Romney is a serial killer."

Jon Stewart, now President of The Definitely Not Coordinated With Stephen Colbert Super PAC, put it in personal terms, "Mitt Romney claims to be pro-corporations. But would you let him date your daughter's corporation?"

The thing about great satire like this is that it is never entirely clear who is being mocked. Are Stephen Colbert and Jon Stewart mocking Mitt Romney? The rhetoric that Republicans like New Gingrich and Rick Perry are using against Mitt Romney? The ads that the Obama campaign has already started to run against Mitt Romney? George Stephanopoulos and the mainstream news media? The campaign finance system that will be used to fund both sides in the 2012 presidential election?

I Thought I Was a Liberal Like John Wayne Too

2012-01-14T17:04:00.000-05:00

John Wayne describes how we always thought he was a liberal until "a certain type that calls himself a liberal" reeducated him that he was right-wing conservative extremist:

Here is John Wayne's wisdom of the ages on wealth and income distribution:

"If you take $20 and give a dollar to every son of a bitch in a room, and come back a year later, one of the bastards will have most of the money. It's just human nature, and you aren't going to whip it with a lot of laws.

I quite agree. In my case, I always thought I was a progressive, from the old Republican school of progressivism. But many of the people running calling themselves progressives these days are in fact socialists. So I call myself a libertarian, and one day the socialists will come for that too. I suppose that's just as much a part of human nature as John Wayne's $20 bill.

Hat tip to Smitty at TOM, who never thought he was a liberal or a progressive.

Some John Wayne clips from The Alamo:

Newt Gingrich Goes to Town on Mitt Romney

2012-01-13T00:37:00.000-05:00

Newt Gingrich spent the fall running a positive campaign, complimenting the other candidates, and staying above the fray. Then in Iowa both Mitt Romney and Ron Paul hit him pretty hard with negative ads.

The big hit is this 30 minute movie, which proves conclusively that people don't like to be laid off from good jobs. You can't help but feel for these people. What you else want to make of that may depend on your point of view.

But Newt has made several other jabs at Mitt:

Negative 30 second ads can be put together quickly. But are we to believe that this 30 minute movie was put together in just the last 2 weeks since the Iowa Caucus, or did Newt start production while he was still hewing to his positive mantra?

The story being told is that the film was shot on spec by Jason Killian Meath, who then approached Newt's Super Pac Winning the Future which "bought the film on Thursday for an undisclosed sum." Meath reportedly made ads for Romney in 2008 when working for a former employer. Perhaps he also lost a good job.

Mitt Romney's True Colors in South Carolina

2012-01-12T01:05:00.000-05:00

Guess who put this "True Colors" anti-Romney ad (below) together coming out of New Hampsire and going into South Carolina:

__ Newt Gingrich
__ Rick Perry
__ Jon Huntsman
__ Rick Santorum
__ Ron Paul
__ None of the Above

You pass the test if you guessed None of the Above. It was in fact the folks over at Democrats.org. The ad goes after some Romneyisms:

"I like being able to fire people."

"Corporations are people, my friend."

"Let Detroit go bankrupt."

"Don't try and stop the foreclosure process, let it run its course and hit the bottom."

"I like being able to fire people."

They like that last one so much they used it twice. In fact, they made a whole ad around the "You're Fired" concept just a day before.

Problem, that "You're Fired" ad is kind of funny. And, actually, Mitt Romney looks sincerely human in "True Colors".

Jon Huntsman Lives Free (and Dies?) in New Hampshire

2012-01-11T12:20:00.004-05:00

What a difference a week makes. Just look at the New Hampshire primary results from yesterday versus the Iowa caucus results last week.

Candidate	New Hampshire	Iowa	Difference
Mitt Romney	39.3%	24.6%	14.7%
Ron Paul	22.8%	21.4%	1.4%
Jon Huntsman	16.9%	0.6%	16.3%
Newt Gingrich	9.4%	13.3%	-3.9%
Rick Santorum	9.4%	24.5%	-15.1%
Rick Perry	0.7%	10.3%	-9.6%
~~Michele Bachmann~~	0.1%	5.0%	-4.9%

The two constants as this race shapes up and goes on to South Carolina are Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. At the other end, New Hampshire has nominated Rick Perry as the next candidate to drop out, giving him just 1,752 votes. We'll see if South Carolina seconds that nomination.

Rick Santorum put all his chips on Iowa where he battled Mitt Romney to a virtual tie but had to settle for fifth place in New Hampshire.

Jon Huntsman skipped Iowa to campaign in New Hampshire, and you can see he was alternatively punished with last place in Iowa and rewarded with third place in New Hampshire. But it's not clear where Huntsman goes from here. He may fade just as fast as Rick Santorum.

Romney stooges conspiracy department: was Jon Huntsman's sole purpose in this campaign was to be waiting in New Hampshire to kill the momentum of the evangelical-supported candidate coming out of Iowa with a granite state shower? Mission accomplished.

Alabama Beats LSU 21-0 for the BCS National SEC Conference Championship

2012-01-10T02:36:00.000-05:00

Alabama (12-1) looked great in their 21-0 win over Lousiana State in the BCS ~~National Championship~~ Bowl last night on January 9. But Oklahoma State (12-1) also won a great victory 41-38 in overtime over Stanford in the Fiesta Bowl on January 9. Unless Alabama and Oklahoma agree to play next weekend, I am declaring a tie for the college football nation championship.

Will the BCS explain:

(1) How they can have 35 bowl games with 70 teams over the 4 weekends between December 17 to January 10, but can't put the best 16 teams into a playoff for the national championship.

(2) How they can have no college bowl games on Janaury 1, just because it was a Sunday, and not hold the championship game until January 10.

(3) How the national championship game can come down to two schools from the same conference who played each other earlier in the year.

Paulistas Paint Huntsman as Manchurian Candidate

2012-01-06T15:53:00.001-05:00

This video is funny in a way that is completely unfair and arguably racist. Or is it?

Jon Huntsman has been trading on the sex appeal of his beautiful American daughters in these online videos:

Now it turns out he has two more daughters, one adopted from China (now age 12) and one adopted from India (now age 6), that didn't rate (make the age cut?) for video appearances with their older sisters.

The Machurian Candidate video was posted on the YouTube Channel NHLiberty4Paul, and so appears to be the work of Paulista supporting the candidacy of Ron Paul. Or is it?

Politico reports that the Ron Paul campaign spokesman Jesse Benton sent them an email denouncing the video: "The video is disgusting. Whoever put that up should remove it immediately."

Ready for Some Libertarian Mischief in MA-4

2012-01-06T15:28:00.002-05:00

Son of Joe4Oil has just announced he is running for the Massachusetts 4th Congressional Seat being vacated by Barney Frank.

Officially he is Joseph P. Kennedy III but you will be excused if you confuse him with his father Joseph P. Kennedy II who has for years been running the Citizen's Energy program that provides heating oil to poor people with the slogan "No one should be left out in the cold."

You may not be excused if you confuse him with Joseph L. Kennedy (no relation), the Libertarian Party candidate who ran in the 2010 special election to fill the U.S. Senate seat held by Ted Kennedy, who was Joseph P. Kennedy III's great uncle. Confused yet?

That raises the intriguing possibility that Joseph L. Kennedy might run for the 4th Congressional District seat too. Joseph L. Kennedy would simply need to move from Dedham to neighboring Needham and he'd be in the district. Then there would be two Joe Kennedys on the ballot.

Republican Sean Bielat lost to Barney Frank in 2010 by 24,510 votes out of 227,140 cast, but that was before redistricting redrew the lines. In the towns of the newly drawn district, Republican Scott Brown won that 2010 U.S. Senate race over Democrat Martha Coakley by 26,314 votes. Add a little voter confusion to the mix, and we might see a 50,000 vote Republican victory in the 4th.

I am not suggesting a dirty trick is in the works here. But trading on a famous name does go against libertarian principles. So if you happen to share the name if not the fame, would it really be wrong to throw your name in the hat too? If memory serves, Joseph L. Kennedy was a pretty good political debater; he could come in from the cold and win one for the libertarians.

Gingrich, Huntsman, and Santorum Join Rick Perry's Fight Against the 10th Amendment in Virginia

2012-01-04T20:46:00.004-05:00

Rick Perry has been a big 10th Amendment fan, until it bit him. The 10th Amendment says:

"The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people."

That gives the states a lot of leeway to make and enforce their own rules, and the state of Virginia had done just that by requiring petitions with 10,000 signatures to get on the state's March 6 presidential primary ballot. Texan Rick Perry and several other candidates came up short of that mark.

Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell does not have much sympathy:

"Heck, I did it twice. It can't be that hard."

Virginia wants to keep the riffraff off its ballots by requiring signatures from a nominally large but statistically insignificant number of voters (only 0.125% of the 8 million residents). You may think that's too much work to put a candidate through, but you aren't Virginia.

Perry's beef is with the requirement that all petition circulators be an eligible or registered qualified voter in Virginia. That means as a Texan Rick Perry can't even solicit signatures for his own campaign. Nevertheless, it would seem rather obvious that he could recruit or hire one of the millions of qualified Virginians to accompany him on his petition-signing drive.

Rick Perry's counter argument seems to be that requiring him to associate with Virginians violates his rights under the U.S. Constitution. That may win in court (although I doubt it) but would not seem endearing to Virginia voters.

Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum have been allowed to join the lawsuit. Gingrich lives in Virginia, so his failure to get the required number of signatures to be on the ballot is especially embarrassing even without the challenge to the 10th Amendment.

The great irony of this lawsuit is that the state of Virginia (along with other states and with the supposed support of Perry, Gingrich, and Santorum) is simultaneously fighting Obamacare on the grounds that the 10th Amendment means the individual states and not the federal government get to set the requirements for health care coverage.

The 10th Amendment is good for thee but not for me they say.

You Like to Eat? You Think Farming Is Easy? Iowa!

2012-01-03T21:41:00.002-05:00

Iowa Nice is not safe for work. Click here for the official cleaner version.

Update: close vote in Iowa tonight but here is the report I got from one Caucusgoer:

"Fun night at caucus wish we could of been a few points higher for Ron Paul :0) ... Top three are all excellent !!!"

Now that's Iowa nice.

Mitt Romney Waits at the Back of the Church

2012-01-02T22:17:00.000-05:00

Tonight Mitt Romney stands at the back of an Iowa church waiting for the last bridesmaid to make it down the aisle and the organist to strike up "Here Comes the Bride."

It has been a long procession as a succession of bridesmaids wowed the assembled Republican congregation across the nation. In April it was Donald Trump. In May Tim Pawlenty. In June it was Jon Huntsman, who travelled the farthest returning from China for the occasion. In July Michele Bachmann. In August and early September it was Rick Perry.

Then came Herman Cain in late September, October, and early November. He lingered so long that many thought Cain would be the bride, until it came out he'd had a little too much fun at the bachelorette party. Newt Gingrich finished out November, followed by Ron Paul in early December and Rick Santorum in late December.

Over at Intrade.com, where the online wags bet on such things, Mitt Romney is given an 80% chance of becoming the Republican nominee. They give Romney a 48% chance of winning the Iowa Caucus on January 3 tomorrow night, with a 28% chance for Ron Paul and a 19% chance for Rick Santorum.

Things look much better for Mitt Romney after Iowa, with odds now giving him a 91% chance to win the New Hampshire primary on January 10, a 60% chance to win the South Carolina primary on January 21, an 80% chance to win the Florida primary on January 31, and a 90% chance to win the Nevada caucus on February 4. But those are the odds today, and they could very well change if Romney fails to win Iowa.

You see, this is a shotgun wedding. Mitt Romney is certainly Mr. Republican. As a successful businessman who served one term as a state governor, it is hard to think of anyone who is more Republican than Mitt Romney, certainly no one in the current field of candidates. But he isn't Mr. Conservative, at least in the eyes of the social conservative and tea party voting base of today's Republican Party.

Yes, Mitt Romney claims he is pregnant with the conservative cause. But the conservatives aren't all quite ready to believe it. You see, the state Romney was governor of was liberal Massachusetts. And while the truth of it is that he tempered his conservatism to the views of the voters who elected him governor to represent them, the conservatives still have insisted on DNA tests. With flip-flops alleged on health care reform and abortion, they aren't happy with the results.

And then there is the one flip-flop Mitt Romney would not make. Romney is a Mormon, a card-carrying member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. Mitt had his chance when marrying his wife Ann to switch to her mainstream protestant upbringing, but instead she converted to the LDS church.

Those latter-day saints are a big problem for many evangelical Christian voters and an even bigger problem for many liberal voters. When it became apparent that Mitt Romney would run for President in the 2008 election, Hollywood came out quick with the HBO series Big Love about a fictional fundamentalist Mormon family in Utah still practicing polygamy and the movie September Dawn about the Mountain Meadows Massacre of the Baker–Fancher wagon train in southern Utah on September 11, 1857.

So it is entirely possible that the groom will run off with one of the bridesmaids. Mitt was left at the altar twice in the 2008 election when he has passed over in favor of John McCain for the presidential nomination, and passed over again by McCain in favor of Sarah Palin for the vice presidential nomination. Even after Mitt Romney is finally called to march down the aisle, there is bound to be a tense moment or two when it comes time in March for the minister to ask for anyone who objects to the Mitt Romney nomination to speak now or forever hold their peace.

Putting Mr. Republican in a bridal dress doesn't mean to suggest this is a same-sex wedding. The Grand Old Party of the past was a man's man but in the last couple of decades it has completely lost its masculinity. Now the Republican Party has become all about show me that you still love me, constantly bringing up old shit, wearing its emotions on its sleeves, and always threatening to go home to mother. One can only hope that at the end of this process Mitt Romney will be allowed to take off the dress and put on the pants.

And what of Barack Obama and the Democrats? The Intrade.com betting line gives Obama a 51% chance of winning reelection.

Mitt Romney Finally Comes Off the Ropes

2012-01-01T15:25:00.002-05:00

While there was no debate last night, the start of the new year is a good marker in our ongoing count of Facebook support for the Republican Presidential candidates. Mitt Romney finally won a round, edging out Ron Paul to add more Facebook supporters in the last 2 weeks of 2011 than any other Republican candidate.

Candidate	Fri 12/16 Noon	Sun 1/1 Noon	Pickup
Mitt Romney	1,220,643	1,260,521	39,878
Ron Paul	635,626	672,803	37,177
Newt Gingrich	216,905	223,670	6,765
Rick Santorum	36,484	41,069	4,585
Rick Perry	176,829	179,969	3,140
Jon Huntsman	28,966	30,635	1,669
~~Gary Johnson~~	145,446	146,709	1,263
Michele Bachmann	460,043	460,288	245

Gary Johnson is a scratch, having quit the Republican Party to join the Libertarian Party this past Wednesday.

This race is fast coming down to a two-man contest between Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. Indeed, looking at the past debate rounds, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are the only candidates who consistently finished in the money.

Event Round	Period	First Place	Second Place	Third Place
Reagan Library	9/7 to 9/8	Ron Paul	Rick Perry	Mitt Romney
Tampa	9/8 to 9/13	Ron Paul	Rick Perry	Mitt Romney
Orlando	9/13 to 9/23	Ron Paul	Mitt Romney	Rick Perry
Dartmouth	9/23 to 10/12	Herman Cain	Ron Paul	Mitt Romney
Las Vegas	10/12 to 10/19	Herman Cain	Ron Paul	Mitt Romney
Michgan	10/19 to 11/10	Herman Cain	Mitt Romney	Ron Paul
South Carolina	11/10 to 11/13	Herman Cain	Mitt Romney	Ron Paul
DC Neocon	11/13 to 11/23	Herman Cain	Newt Gingrich	Mitt Romney
Huck-a-bee	11/23 to 12/4	Newt Gingrich	Mitt Romney	Ron Paul
Des Moines	12/4 to 12/11	Ron Paul	Newt Gingrich	Mitt Romney
Sioux City	12/11 to 12/16	Ron Paul	Mitt Romney	Newt Gingrich
New Year's Day	12/16 to 1/1	Mitt Romney	Ron Paul	Newt Gingrich

Looking at Rick Perry and especially Herman Cain, one can only wonder what might have been. For Newt Gingrich, it has been too little too late as he is still 87,639 supporters short of crossing the Biden Line (Joe Biden currently has 311,309 supporters on Facebook).

Mitt Romney has been playing the rope-a-dope, taking punches from a protected stance as his opponents one-by-one tire themselves out. Ron Paul will go the distance, so Romney will have to beat him at the ballot box.

Gary Johnson Rings Out '11 for the Libertarian Party

2011-12-31T12:07:00.066-05:00

If a libertarian falls in the forest, will anyone hear the sound? On Wednesday former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson sought to find out:

"I am here today to announce that I am leaving the Republican Party and will seek the Libertarian nomination for President of the United States."

Here is his 11-point libertarian agenda:

(1) I want to end deficit spending and cut federal spending by 43%.

(2) I want to enact the Fair Tax to stimulate real economic growth and job creation.

(3) I want to end the manipulation of our money by the Federal Reserve.

(4) I support the Second Amendment and oppose gun control.

(5) I oppose expensive foreign wars in places like Libya and Afghanistan where our national interest is not clear.

(6) I want to cut the over-regulation of our families, our businesses and our lives.

(7) I support a woman's right to choose.

(8) I support marriage equality for gay Americans, as required by the Constitution.

(9) I support the legalization of marijuana, which will save us billions and do no harm.

(10) I demand a government free of special interest influence, crony capitalism and corruption.

(11) I support returning strict adherence to Constitutional principles to our government.

Of his agenda, Gary Johnson says:

"Sadly, neither the Republicans nor Democrats will offer this agenda to the American people. The Republicans talk about cutting spending and taxes but insist on government regulating our personal lives. The Democrats support more liberal social policies but they will tax and spend and borrow us into bankruptcy. America needs a third way."

Conventional wisdom is that a libertarian candidacy won't matter. However, the grand old pooh-bahs of Virginia are concerned enough to require citizens who vote in their state's Republican presidential primary to sign this loyalty oath:

"I, the undersigned, pledge that I intend to support the nominee of the Republican party for president."

That's a blank check with the amount to be filled in later.

Christmas Season in Harvard Square

2011-12-25T23:55:00.024-05:00

Pictures from the days leading up to Christmas in Harvard Square, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Bonny's near Fresh Pond

Salvation Army bell ringers at the Harvard Coop

Harvard Square Business Association feeds the multitudes latkes

Joe Kessler and the Klezwoods dedicate this one to the Arab Spring

Outside the William Brattle House

Cardullo's window display

Harvard Coop window display

Poinsettias at the Brattle Square Florist

Harvard Square Theater on Christmas Day

Do Ask, Do Tell, and Let Me Watch on YouTube

2011-12-22T02:00:00.002-05:00

Petty Officer 2nd Class Marissa Gaeta plants a homecoming kiss on Petty Officer 3rd Class Citlalic Snell after three months at sea. The scuttlebut is that other sailors may have helped this along by buying tickets for Marissa in their ship's first kiss raffle. So much for concerns about unit cohesion.

Bob Slate Stationer Reopens in Harvard Square

2011-12-21T01:55:00.000-05:00

When Bob Slate closed last March it looked like Harvard Square had forever lost another one of its iconic retail institutions.

Bob Slate is back in a new, smaller store on the second floor of the Hadley Building at 30 Brattle Street in the heart of Harvard Square.

The new owner, Laura Donohue, has been working with the previous owners to recreate the Bob Slate experience. While the inventory is necessarily less varied in the smaller space, she does carry many of the gifts and supplies you could only get at Bob Slate.

Laura was director of finance and operations at Harvard Business School Publishing and graduated from Harvard in 1985. "I have been a customer for 30 years, starting in my freshman year at Harvard," Donohue says. I have too, although I doubt for old times' sake she will cash my checks made out for extra cash the way the old Bob Slate did thirty years ago.

Mitt Romney Video Roundup

2011-12-20T22:33:00.001-05:00

Some videos from the Romney campaign:

Mitt Romney on David Letterman:

Dawn of a New Day in Iraq

2011-12-19T13:53:00.001-05:00

Early yesterday morning under cover of night, the last convoy of U.S. troops crossed the border into Kuwait. The last unit out reportedly was the 3rd Brigade Special Troops Battalion, 1st Cavalry Division under the command of Colonel Doug Crissman.

And so it ends, not with a bang but with a wimper, and this email from President Obama's reelection campign:

Early this morning, the last of our troops left Iraq.

As we honor and reflect on the sacrifices that millions of men and women made for this war, I wanted to make sure you heard the news.

Bringing this war to a responsible end was a cause that sparked many Americans to get involved in the political process for the first time. Today's outcome is a reminder that we all have a stake in our country's future, and a say in the direction we choose.

Thank you.

Barack

Our country has been at war with or in Iraq since August 2, 1990 when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. For the U.S., the war went through four phases: the liberation of Kuwait in 1991, the no-fly zone enforcement from 1991 to 2002, the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003 and the counterinsurgency campaign from 2003 to 2011.

The price has been high both in terms of U.S. soldiers killed and wounded and in terms of a wrecked U.S. economy. The dividends, if there are any, will come down the road and be difficult to measure. That makes it all the more important that we salute our troops for seeing this through to the end. And I hope this is the end.

Can Iraq get along without us? Let us hope so. There has been human civilization in the fertile crescent for 12,000 years.

Ron Paul Video Roundup

2011-12-16T23:55:00.000-05:00

Some for, some against, some old, some new.

I Sense a Disturbance in the Force

2011-12-16T22:37:00.000-05:00

Around 60 protesters were out in Boston demonstrating against the indefinite detention provision in the National Defense Authorization Act when they got a drive by from a most intimidating paddy wagon. It just "lumbered slowly by" sending the unequivocal message to keep the protest civil or be carted off to jail.

Just what is the Civil Disturbance Unit? "At the direction of the Patrol Operations Division Commander, the Civil Disturbance Unit is responsible for augmenting the Patrol Force in effectively addressing any riot and/or civil protest."

Here are the riot police that go with the bus. Such a big bus for only 10 riot police.

For such big disturbance in the force, we can only wonder if the big transit police bus cost as much as a Death Star.

Ron Paul Counts Coup In Sioux City Debate Round

2011-12-16T12:22:00.000-05:00

Ron Paul won the first Iowa debate round last week and following last night's debate in Sioux City, Iowa has won the second round this week. On Facebook he added more net new followers (14,401) than all other Republican candidates combined (13,949).

Candidate	Sun 12/11 Noon	Fri 12/16 Noon	Pickup
Ron Paul	621,225	635,626	14,401
Mitt Romney	1,213,468	1,220,643	7,175
Newt Gingrich	212,027	216,905	4,878
Rick Santorum	35,036	36,484	1,448
Rick Perry	175,399	176,829	1,430
Jon Huntsman	27,728	28,966	1,238
Michele Bachmann	459,050	460,043	993
Gary Johnson	145,181	145,446	265
~~Herman Cain~~	394,473	390,995	-3,478

That tap on Mitt Romney's shoulder is not the Republican Party picking him as its standard bearer. It's Ron Paul counting coup.

The fabled Newt Gingrich surge is over. He's down to third place in this round.

Michele Bachmann joins Rick Perry in the surprisingly still has a pulse category. Rick Santorum has moved up to fourth place, and he'll be happy to hold that spot on Iowa caucus night.

Prettiest Face on Facebook, Biggest Twit on Twitter

2011-12-15T23:59:00.002-05:00

While Mitt Romney is the prettiest face on Facebook, Newt Gingrich is the biggest twit on Twitter. That may just sum up the Republican race.

Candidate	Followers on Facebook	Followers on Twitter
Mitt Romney	1,219,951	200,419
Newt Gingrich	216,603	1,379,077

Here are the full bimonthly Twitter counts, maybe Newt isn't the biggest twit after all:

Candidate	Followers on 6/15/2011	Followers on 8/15/2011	Followers on 10/15/2011	Followers on 12/15/2011
Barack Obama	8,628,273	9,654,446	10,576,757	11,544,286

Newt Gingrich	1,324,904	1,327,013	1,334,848	1,379,077
Mitt Romney	51,580	71,882	134,459	200,419
Michele Bachmann	52,100	75,731	104,362	122,084
Rick Perry	44,438	62,895	96,509	108,645
Ron Paul	54,455	61,763	70,778	87,471
Jon Huntsman	704	11,875	41,107	61,399
Rick Santorum	10,529	17,424	32,059	46,597
Gary Johnson	-	-	14,113	16,857

~~Donald Trump~~	615,671	686,929	802,054	911,203
~~Sarah Palin~~	561,050	632,179	677,857	702,418
~~Mike Bloomberg~~	99,413	132,520	174,137	199,761
~~Mike Huckabee~~	165,040	183,523	185,516	187,861
~~Herman Cain~~	43,542	58,164	118,117	172,087
~~Jim DeMint~~	95,266	110,421	112,931	115,256
~~Paul Ryan~~	59,094	72,073	81,203	89,628
~~Chris Christie~~	42,041	50,832	68,657	77,892
~~Bobby Jindal~~	59,598	61,530	64,196	66,787
~~Tim Pawlenty~~	40,981	48,992	55,508	62,272
~~Thaddeus McCotter~~	-	19,726	27,477	33,416
~~Jeb Bush~~	14,937	17,263	19,864	21,874

Total Republican Followers	3,335,343	3,702,735	4,215,752	4,663,004

Not much change in order since October. Herman Cain is out and Mike Bloomberg moved up a notch among the not running.

December Is Gay Bash a Republican Month

2011-12-14T01:36:00.001-05:00

The confrontrations between gay activists and Republican candidates for President are starting to add up.

Michele Bachmann, December 4 (sweetheart!)

Rick Perry, December 11

Mitt Romney, December 12 (actually this one is quite polite)

Not that this is anything new.

Newt Gingrich, May 18

Newt Not Keeping up with the Gingrich-Joneses

2011-12-12T23:49:00.001-05:00

"I also pledge to uphold the institution of marriage through personal fidelity to my spouse and respect for the marital bonds of others."

Thrice-married Newt Gingrich has a problem. He hopes to pick up conservative family values voters, despite the troubling two divorces. He aims to solve it by making a campaign promise. The promise quoted above was included in a letter to Bob Vander Plaats and his Iowa organization The FAMiLY LEADER.

That's got to be a first in campaign promises, at least at the U.S. President level. Newt doubles down by promising both to be faithful to his current wife Callista and not to mess with anyone else's spouse.

That respect for marital bonds would not include his half-sister Candace Gingrich and her wife Rebecca Jones. Newt promises he will amend the Constitution to define marriage as the "union of one man and one woman." That's a vindictive half-brother-in-law for you, not wanting to keep up with the Gingrich-Joneses.

A lot of people will find other contradictions here. In the same letter, Newt says he will defend the unborn and defend the right of the people to rule themselves. However, his promises to defend the unborn extend mainly to taxpayer funding of abortion, so that adds up to libertarian.

Here's the whole letter:

To Bob Vander Plaats and the Executive Board of The FAMiLY LEADER:

I appreciate the opportunity to affirm my strong support of the mission of the FAMiLY LEADER by solemnly vowing to defend and strengthen the family through the following actions I would take as President of the United States.

Defending Marriage. As President, I will vigorously enforce the Defense of Marriage Act, which was enacted under my leadership as Speaker of the House, and ensure compliance with its provisions, especially in the military. I will also aggressively defend the constitutionality of DOMA in federal and state courts. I will support sending a federal constitutional amendment defining marriage as the union of one man and one woman to the states for ratification. I will also oppose any judicial, bureaucratic, or legislative effort to define marriage in any manner other than as between one man and one woman. I will support all efforts to reform promptly any uneconomic or anti-marriage aspects of welfare and tax policy. I also pledge to uphold the institution of marriage through personal fidelity to my spouse and respect for the marital bonds of others.

Defending the Unborn. I believe that life begins at conception. On day one of my administration, I will sign an executive order reinstating Ronald Reagan's Mexico City policy that prevents taxpayer dollars from being used to fund abortions overseas. I will also work with Congress to repeal Obamacare, defund Planned Parenthood so that no taxpayer dollars are being used to fund abortions but rather transfer the money so it is used to promote adoption and other pro-family policies, and enact legislation that provides greater protections for the unborn.

Defending Religious Liberty. As President, I will vigorously defend the First Amendment's rights of religious liberty and freedom of speech against anyone who would try to stifle the free expression of believers. I will also promote legislation that protects the right to conscience for healthcare workers so they are not compelled to perform abortions and other procedures that violate their religious teachings.

Defending Against Debt. As President, I will undertake vigorous policies to maximize capital investment and job creation, along with common sense entitlement reforms, to dramatically turn around the nation's fiscal situation. Building upon the same principles I championed during my four years as Speaker, when we reduced the national debt by over $400 billion and dramatically reduced the national debt as a percentage of the GDP, we will reduce the enormous burden upon American families of the public debt and unfunded liabilities.

Defending the Right of the People to Rule Themselves. Today, as federal courts have intervened in sectors of American life never before imaginable, including the intervention in the definition of marriage as well as when unborn life can be protected under the Constitution, the public has increasingly come to view them as an usurpative device for unelected rulers. This abuse of power and loss of public confidence amounts to a constitutional crisis. I believe the executive and legislative branches each have an independent responsibility to interpret the Constitution, and in those rare circumstances when they believe the federal courts, including the Supreme Court, have engaged in a serious constitutional error, they can choose among an array of constitutional powers to check and balance the courts. As President, I will nominate for federal judgeships, including justices of the Supreme Court, only those individuals who are committed to an originalist understanding of the Constitution. Judges with an originalist understanding will subordinate themselves to the meaning of the Constitution as it was intended by the framers, and not substitute their own judgments about its meaning. The inherent judicial self-restraint that comes from an originalist approach to the Constitution offers the best long-term assurance that federal judges will not exceed their powers and trample on individual liberties. I will also work with Congress to use the Constitutional means available to reassert the right of the elected branches of government to defend their understanding of the meaning of the Constitution, including limiting the jurisdiction of the federal courts to decide on certain issues, when they believe the federal courts have engaged in a serious constitutional error.

Sincerely,

Newt Gingrich

Should I have left Candace out of this for privacy reasons? Did I further disrepect her by referring to her as a "half-sister" rather than "sister"? As her Facebook page says, "Candace appeared on The Rachel Maddow Show on Wednesday 7th December 2011 to talk about her half-brother Newt Gingrich."

Ron Paul Wins First Iowa Debate Round, Rick Perry Rises from the Dead

2011-12-11T12:45:00.000-05:00

The everywhere-touted Newt Gingrich surge lasted exactly one debate round, according to our highly scientific and incontrovertible method of measuring support on Facebook. Yes, Newt won the 11/23 to 12/4 round in which Herman Cain withdrew from the race but has fallen now to second in the 12/4 to 12/11 round.

Candidate	Sun 12/4 Noon	Sun 12/11 Noon	Pickup
Ron Paul	608,760	621,225	12,465
Newt Gingrich	202,200	212,027	9,827
Mitt Romney	1,205,221	1,213,468	8,247
Rick Perry	171,469	175,399	3,930
Jon Huntsman	26,441	27,728	1,287
Rick Santorum	33,802	35,036	1,234
Gary Johnson	144,921	145,181	260
Michele Bachmann	458,950	459,050	100
~~Herman Cain~~	397,352	394,473	-2,879

We'll see if Ron Paul can hold onto first through the second Iowa debate on December 15 in Sioux City.

And what about Rick Perry? We were ready to leave him for dead after the last round or two, but he scored a solid fourth.

Rick Santorum is experiencing his own mini-surge, coming closer to besting Jon Huntsman than he has in the last several rounds.

Michele Bachmann held her own on television, landing a double sucker punch with her Newt Romney line on health care individual mandates. But on Facebook, alas, she actually lost 16 followers during the broadcast. Rick Santorum calling her a loser probably didn't help.

By the way, didn't Santorum lose his last Senate race in the state of Pennsylvania which the 2012 Republican Presidential candidate will desparately want to win. Yes, Santorum lost by a landslide vote of 59% to 41%. If he's still that unpopular in his home state of Pennsylvania, Rick Santorum wouldn't even be a good pick for Vice President.

Perry-Brown Would Be the Perfect Brokeback Ticket

2011-12-11T12:30:00.001-05:00

4,733,197 people have tuned in over the last 4 days ago to listen to Rick Perry deliver this message:

I'm not ashamed to admit that I'm a Christian, but you don't need to be in the pew every Sunday to know there's something wrong in this country when gays can serve openly in the military but our kids can't openly celebrate Christmas or pray in school.

As President, I'll end Obama's war on religion. And I'll fight against liberal attacks on our religious heritage.

Faith made America strong. It can make her strong again.

I'm Rick Perry and I approve this message.

I half agree. Why shouldn't the kids be able to sing Joy to the World, O Come all Ye Faithful, Hark, the Herald Angels Sing, Silent Night, "Away in the Manger, Oh Holy Night, or Little Drummer Boy at the third-grade Christmas pageant.

Nonetheless many chose to interpret Rick Perry's not as pro-religious but anti-gay. And then they pointed out the similarlity of Rick Perry's light brown coat to the one worn by Heath Ledger in the breakthrough gay love story Brokeback Mountain.

A lot of people have been saying the Rck Perry and Heath Ledger coats are identical. They are very similar but not identical. Just queer eye the detail work.

But you can't go Brokeback with just one guy, you need two. So if Rick Perry is wearing the light brown coat who is wearing the dark brown coat? How about U.S. Senator from Massachusetts Scott Brown:

Perry-Brown would certainly be a handsome ticket that would make the GOP proud.

Hell Hath No Fury Like Donald Trump Scorned

2011-12-09T19:16:00.002-05:00

Donald Trump announced he wanted to host a debate for all the Republican candidates in Iowa on December 27, just a week before the Iowa Caucus.

Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum said yes. Two is the minimum you need for a debate, right? And Newt has already shown himself is willing to debate anyone, anytme. So far so good.

Then the Nos starting rolling in.

Jon Huntsman - "This is exactly what is wrong with politics. It’s show business over substance."

Ron Paul - "I didn't know he had the ability to lay on hands and anoint people."

Mitt Romney, to the Donald's particular surprise, and Rick Perry begged off on being just too busy campaigning.

However, the thin-skinned putative billionaire saved his digs for Michele Bachmann:

"She came up to see me four times. She would call me and ask me for advice. She said if she wins, she would like to think about me for the vice presidency. Most importantly, I did a two-hour phone call for her with her people. ... And after all that, she announced she was not going to do the debate. It's called loyalty. How do you do that? It's amazing to me."

Can you believe the gall of the pushy broad flirting so brazenly with The Donald and then faking a headache on her own future VP selection and putting the Trump debate on men-o-pause. We will be deprived of what surely would have been an uniquely riveting bit of television.

Update 12/11/2011: Michele Bachmann was asked about saying No to Donald Trump on one of the Sunday shows this morning. "He's a big boy," she said. Ouch.

Barney Frank Doesn't Live Here Anymore

2011-12-05T00:04:00.001-05:00

I wondered what exactly it was about the redistricted 4th district that scared Barney Frank into retirement, so I looked at the voting in the January 2010 special election for U.S. Senate between Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Martha Coakley.

The 4th district was stripped of the Democratic stronghold of New Bedford, leaving only 25% of the district population in the reliable Democratic cites of Newton, Brookline, and part of Fall River. Turns out Scott Brown carried the cities and towns in the new 4th district by 26,314 votes.

City or Town	Population	Brown (R)	Coakley (D)	Margin
North Attleborough	28,712	7,778	3,018	4,760
Franklin	31,635	8,828	4,470	4,358
Attleboro	43,593	8,598	4,819	3,779
Mansfield	23,184	5,909	3,045	2,864
Easton	23,112	5,931	3,350	2,581
Wrentham	10,955	3,880	1,414	2,466
Foxborough	16,865	4,821	2,465	2,356
Taunton	55,874	8,925	6,586	2,339
Norton	19,031	4,424	2,209	2,215
Lakeville	10,602	3,248	1,259	1,989
Norfolk	11,227	3,308	1,394	1,914
Milford	27,999	5,432	3,561	1,871
Medway	12,752	3,641	2,044	1,597
Medfield	12,024	3,842	2,276	1,566
Rehoboth	11,608	3,080	1,538	1,542
Hopkinton	14,925	4,123	2,600	1,523
Plainville	8,264	2,469	971	1,498
Bellingham*	12,638	3,165	1,686	1,479
Seekonk	13,722	3,133	1,911	1,222
Raynham*	7,719	2,061	973	1,088
Millis	7,891	2,430	1,383	1,047
Freetown	8,870	2,220	1,189	1,031
Dighton	7,086	1,770	829	941
Berkley	6,411	1,614	746	868
Swansea	15,865	3,297	2,449	848
Dover	5,589	1,888	1,058	830
Hopedale	5,911	1,619	997	622
Somerset	18,165	3,706	3,553	153
Wellesley	27,982	5,922	5,934	-12
Needham	28,886	6,894	7,654	-760
Sharon	17,612	3,536	4,461	-925
Fall River*	36,927	3,112	4,297	-1,185
Brookline	58,732	5,217	15,264	-10,047
Newton	85,146	11,352	23,456	-12,104
Total	727,514	151,174	124,860	26,314

* In order to square the Constitutional requirement of one man, one vote, with other less noble objectives in the redistricting process, the 4th District was assigned 77% of Bellingham, 58% of Raynham, and 42% of Fall River.

The redistricting scissors were also applied to Cambridge, where 52,234 residents were carved out for Ed Markey's 5th district and 52,928 left for Mike Capuano's 7th district. I suspect that state legislators working at the behest of Boston Mayor Tom Menino are trying to reclaim the 7th district for Boston from Somerville's Mike Capuano.

The new 7th is designed to be a majority minority district with 57% of district population nonwhite or hispanic. That means minority community activists will want to run a candidate to challenge Capuano in the Democratic primary. With 66% of the 7th district population in Boston and only 10% in Somerville, that could mean early retirement for Mike Capuano.

But what were the Democratic state legislators thinking when they drew the 4th? Certainly the right Democrat could win. The danger is that rare breed of Scott Brown Republican who could draw independent voters. That may be what the legislature wants. It surely hasn't escaped their notice that the new Republican Congress hasn't been returning Barney Frank's calls or emails.

Periodic complete loss of clout is a major liability for our all-Democrat U.S. House delegation - in times like these the state could sure use a go-to-guy in the U.S. House Republican caucus.

Gingrich Wins the Huck-a-bee as Cain Goes Out on Infidelity

2011-12-04T18:16:00.002-05:00

I'm not sure we can call last night's candidate forum hosted by Mike Huckabee on Fox a debate, but it certainly brought the race back to a dull normal after the spectacular cancellation of The Herman Cain Show. That's too bad, I kind of liked that show.

But Herman Cain's misfortune has turned into Newt Gingrich's good fortune, as he wins his first debate round on Facebook. The great irony is that the man who stayed with his wife has to cede to the man who has twice confirmed his failings by divorcing to marry the object of his infidelity.

Candidate	Wed 11/23 Noon	Sun 12/4 Noon	Pickup
Newt Gingrich	184,096	202,200	18,104
Mitt Romney	1,191,540	1,205,221	13,681
Ron Paul	596,853	608,760	11,907
~~Herman Cain~~	392,326	397,352	5,026
Jon Huntsman	24,800	26,441	1,641
Rick Santorum	32,778	33,802	1,024
Gary Johnson	144,584	144,921	337
Rick Perry	171,496	171,469	-27
Michele Bachmann	459,164	458,950	-214

If I'm not ready to take Newt Gingrich seriously, his support growth is certainly staying on pace, but I think he needs to pick it up a couple of more notches. He is leading the pack but not breaking away from the pack the way Herman Cain did.

George Step-on-all-of-us Grinds His Heel into Herman Cain

2011-11-30T20:26:00.003-05:00

When George Stephanopoulos interviews Ginger White, who says she had an affair with Republican Presidential candidate Herman Cain, the irony of the great defender of Bill Clinton's sexual foibles asking the questions about someone else is just too much:

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Some journalistic curiosities:

(1) Ginger White admits that Herman Cain was telling the truth when he said they didn't have a 13-year affair. That goes right past George.

(2) Ginger White shows phone records of recent calls and text messages from Herman Cain. Why doesn't George ask to see the text messages themselves?

(3) Ginger White says that Herman Cain gave her money over the last 2 1/2 years but asked for nothing in return. George fails to ask her when she got the last gift, how much it was, or how much in total she received.

(4) Ginger White says Herman Cain took her on several trips, including to the Mike Tyson v. Evander Holyfield fight in Las Vegas. George fails to ask her whether that was the first fight on November 9, 1996 or the rematch on June 28, 1997.

(5) When Ginger White says she has never been evicted, I think she means she moved out after receiving the eviction notices that have been reported in the press, but George doesn't ask.

Ginger White is charged with exaggerating her relationship with Herman Cain, and as much as admits that. How much is truth, how much is exaggeration? Don't look to George Stephanopoulos for answers, or even for questions.

Gold for Cain and Silver for Gingrich at the Neocon Town Hall

2011-11-23T14:37:00.000-05:00

This latest Repulican debate on national security issues was a strange episode, with CNN host Wolf Blitzer hurling questions from various odd fellows at the Heritage Foundation and the American Enterprise Institute.

Perhaps the oddest of those fellows was the once influential Paul Wolfowitz, former Deputy Secretary of Defense and former head of the World Bank, now reduced to the roll of question from the audience at the neocon town hall.

Looking at the Facebook support numbers, as we always do here, we score this as the fifth win in a row for Herman Cain with second place going to Newt Gingrich.

Candidate	Sun 11/13 Noon	Wed 11/23 Noon	Pickup
Herman Cain	371,583	392,326	20,743
Newt Gingrich	168,048	184,096	16,048
Mitt Romney	1,176,626	1,191,540	14,914
Ron Paul	583,074	596,853	13,779
Jon Huntsman	22,897	24,800	1,903
Gary Johnson	143,063	144,584	1,521
Rick Santorum	31,958	32,778	820
Rick Perry	170,943	171,496	553
Michele Bachmann	459,154	459,164	10

Newt Gingrich has become the man to watch, but looking at overall support he's still got a way to go to cross the Biden Line let alone overtake the support leaders in the Republican field

If Newt Gingrich stays on his current pace, he doesn't cross the Biden Line until 2/9/2012, and he doesn't catch up to Herman Cain until 3/31/2012, Ron Paul until 8/6/2012, and Mitt Romney until 8/11/2013. That assumes that the other candidates stand still, and they are continuing to build support. Newt's best hope may be that the election is held on Twitter.

Speaking of standing still, that's essentially been the case for Michele Bachmann all fall. Perhaps Rick Perry and Rick Santorum should go into that category too, as they can't even beat Gary Johnson, they guy who is not even being invited to the debates.

The Republican Field May Have Finally Found Its Equilibrium

2011-11-16T23:55:00.028-05:00

The Republican field may have finally found its equilibrium, judging from support on Facebook. Beyond Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry trading places and a continuing Herman Cain surge into a solid 4th place, there has not been much change in position in the last 2 months.

Candidate	Friends on 1/16/2011	Friends on 3/16/2011	Friends on 5/16/2011	Friends on 7/16/2011	Friends on 9/16/2011	Friends on 11/16/2011
Barack Obama	17,822,152	18,632,331	20,413,245	22,038,067	23,133,522	24,076,264
Joe Biden	271,971	274,670	282,433	299,388	304,953	308,062

Mitt Romney	751,391	814,705	899,055	1,041,454	1,110,938	1,182,511
Ron Paul	307,493	307,495	356,452	419,099	510,540	588,239
Michele Bachmann	150,467	187,433	258,370	422,366	462,345	459,318
Herman Cain	42,289	55,720	90,146	149,820	176,534	381,105
Newt Gingrich	100,489	113,269	131,779	142,281	148,009	172,841
Rick Perry	51,455	52,180	52,854	70,425	160,305	171,194
Gary Johnson	-	110,466	114,000	129,275	134,036	143,460
Rick Santorum	12,211	13,252	16,221	23,482	27,860	32,215
Jon Huntsman	-	1,555	2,280	9,347	17,832	23,476

~~Sarah Palin~~	2,606,586	2,777,509	2,957,627	3,191,711	3,238,066	3,254,960
~~Mike Huckabee~~	522,079	541,409	586,020	647,376	658,920	658,660
~~Donald Trump~~	146,866	184,512	272,108	300,401	318,603	330,822
~~Scott Brown~~	-	-	237,462	239,086	239,053	239,094
~~Bobby Jindal~~	121,977	122,353	125,614	129,824	130,959	151,236
~~Rand Paul~~	-	105,001	117,287	137,580	146,080	150,434
~~Jim DeMint~~	127,177	129,848	133,363	143,436	148,845	149,053
~~Tim Pawlenty~~	69,985	73,135	86,907	103,337	102,720	101,986
~~Paul Ryan~~	50,908	56,496	71,923	79,181	83,785	85,967
~~Allen West~~	-	-	64,057	67,330	74,568	76,237
~~John Thune~~	74,754	74,837	75,211	75,442	75,244	75,222
~~Scott Walker~~	-	61,527	63,129	64,621	66,083	67,763
~~Chris Christie~~	29,388	33,990	36,536	42,563	46,671	52,405
~~Mitch Daniels~~	39,413	44,528	49,908	50,614	51,175	51,548
~~Mike Pence~~	45,923	47,712	48,542	48,893	48,949	49,065
~~Mike Bloomberg~~	29,862	30,344	31,316	32,879	36,995	38,175
~~Haley Barbour~~	16,854	17,459	18,168	18,604	18,775	19,006
~~Thaddeus McCotter~~	-	-	9,909	11,812	12,552	12,581
~~Peter King~~	-	-	11,232	11,525	11,652	11,766
Jimmy McMillan	-	8,362	8,675	9,141	9,988	10,676
Roy Moore	-	-	70	8,235	8,294	8,321
Buddy Roemer	-	570	1,496	1,806	4,590	7,024
~~John Bolton~~	5,170	5,658	6,056	6,354	6,826	6,991
~~Jeb Bush~~	4,841	5,027	5,300	5,556	5,745	5,803
Fred Karger	681	826	1,458	2,117	3,398	5,355
~~Rudy Giuliani~~	1,891	2,194	2,535	3,211	4,289	4,545
Andy Martin	-	-	560	570	573	583
Jonathon Sharkey	-	-	159	170	352	414
~~Jon Greenspon~~	581	584	583	583	-	-

Total Democratic Friends	18,094,123	18,907,001	20,695,678	22,337,455	23,438,475	24,384,326
Total Republican Friends	5,310,731	5,979,951	6,944,368	7,841,507	8,302,149	8,780,051

Obama-Biden fell just short of adding 1 million followers in the last two months, as their pace continues to slow. Perhaps potential supporters have been occupied elsewhere. Still they added 945,851 supporters versus 477,902 for all the Republicans in and out of the race combined.

It was time to scratch all those who never declared or have dropped out. Sarah Palin does stand out with a solid base of support for the future, while Donald Trump has a wet raccoon. The neocon favorite John Bolton and the dynastic Jeb Bush can't even clear the Jimmy McMillan Rent Is Too Damn High line.

Cain Wins Again in SC, Gingrich Surges Fourth

2011-11-13T13:55:00.001-05:00

All anyone is talking about this week is the new surge by Newt Gingrich. But looking at the support numbers after the debate in South Carolina last night, Newt is definitely surging but still hasn't gotten out of fourth place in adding new support on Facebook, sixth place overall.

Candidate	Thu 11/10 Noon	Sun 11/13 Noon	Pickup
Herman Cain	362,749	371,583	8,834
Mitt Romney	1,171,532	1,176,626	5,094
Ron Paul	578,427	583,074	4,647
Newt Gingrich	163,762	168,048	4,286
Rick Perry	170,178	170,943	765
Jon Huntsman	22,418	22,897	479
Gary Johnson	142,816	143,063	247
Rick Santorum	31,819	31,958	139
Michele Bachmann	459,167	459,154	-13

You don't need to take the Newt Gingrich surge too seriously until he's added the almost 140,000 supporters he needs to cross the Biden Line. At his current pace, that won't happen until February 19, 2012. That's if he can maintain his current pace of adding supporters, he really needs to double it.

Herman Cain continues to run the table, with his fourth win in a row. Foreign policy is supposed to be his weak suit, but apparently he has been studying up.

The big loser at the South Carolina debate was CBS. They televised the first 60 minutes of the 90 minute debate, then preempted the last 30 minutes for its regularly scheduled show NCIS. The abrupt cutoff of live TV coverage sent the political junkies to the cbsnew.com website for the live stream, but at least for me it streamed with such fits and starts as to be unwatchable.

"And that's the way it is?" Walter Cronkite might ask.

Herman Cain Support Swells as He Wins the Michigan Debate

2011-11-10T13:07:00.002-05:00

The Republican Presidential debate show was back on CNBC in Michigan after a three week hiatus following the Vegas episode. And if you thought the last week was going to be a bye week for Herman Cain, you'd be wrong.

Herman Cain continues to rack up new supporters on Facebook. If anything the Cain wave has swelled in the last 10 days. It now is coming down to a three way race for new support between Herman Cain, Mitt Romney, and Ron Paul.

Candidate	Wed 10/19 Noon	Thu 11/10 Noon	Pickup
Herman Cain	289,490	362,749	73,259
Mitt Romney	1,137,760	1,171,532	33,772
Ron Paul	552,264	578,427	26,163
Newt Gingrich	154,081	163,762	9,681
Gary Johnson	139,921	142,816	2,895
Rick Perry	167,513	170,178	2,665
Jon Huntsman	20,628	22,418	1,790
Rick Santorum	30,550	31,819	1,269
Michele Bachmann	459,979	459,167	-812

Rick Perry committed the big gaffe in last night's debate. It will be interesting to see what happens with his support in the next week going into the next debate in Iowa on C-Span on Saturday, November 19. Perry support may go into Bachmann territory.

Update: There is a debate this Saturday, November 12 in Spartanburg, South Carolina. So a whole week won't be necessary to test the Perry weakness.

Did Cambridge Voters Just Favor Charter School Ideas Over Public Schools?

2011-11-10T02:28:00.002-05:00

The municipal election results are in for Cambridge, Massachusetts.

In the city council race, after you sort out all the noise, Minka vanBeuzekom is replacing incumbent Sam Seidel. Leland Cheung, the newcomer and first Asian-American councilor elected two years ago, has become the highest vote getter.

On the school committee, Mervan Osborne defeated incumbent Nancy Tauber.

Nancy has been on the School Committee for four years and always pointed to her classroom experience as a teacher in Newton and her commitment to public school education.

Mervan is a teacher at Beacon Academy, a charter school in Boston that takes students from around the metro area for a bridge year between eighth and ninth grade. Before that he was a teacher at the private school Buckingham Browne & Nichols. And he is also on the board of directors at Concord Academy.

In other words, Cambridge voters just traded a public school teacher for a charter/private school teacher. That could be a sea change.

This is What Democracy Does Not Look Like in Cambridge, Massachusetts

2011-11-09T23:50:00.003-05:00

We've just had another municipal election here in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Elsewhere it's one man, one vote. Here it's you may fill in as many choices as you please, only one vote per candidate, only one vote per column, and do not use red to mark ballot. We end up with ballots that look like an SAT test from hell.

Voting in the city of Cambridge is more complicated than it needs to be. Cambridge uses a system of proportional representation that means you are asked to rank all the candidates in the city council race against each other (same for school committee). If you want, you can vote for all of the candidates by ranking every last one of them in your order of preference #1, #2, #3, etc.

When it came time to count the ballots for the 9 seats on the city council, here were the #1 votes for each candidate:

Candidate	#1 Votes	Result
Leland Cheung	1974	Elected on 1st count
Timothy J. Toomey, Jr.	1654	Elected on 1st count
David P. Maher	1636	Elected on 1st count
Henrietta Davis	1407	Elected on 9th count
E. Denise Simmons	1224	Elected on 13th count
Marjorie C. Decker	1092	Elected on 14th count
Craig A. Kelley	1075	Elected on 13th count
Minka Y. vanBeuzekom	1011	Elected on 14th count
Kenneth E. Reeves	979	Elected on 14th count
Larry W. Ward	816	Defeated on 13th count
Sam Seidel	768	Defeated on 12th count
Matthew P. Nelson	523	Defeated on 11th count
Charles J. Marquardt	488	Defeated on 10th count
Thomas Stohlman, Jr.	336	Defeated on 9th count
James M. Williamson	171	Defeated on 8th count
Gary W. Mello	128	Defeated on 7th count
Jamake Pascual	57	Defeated on 5th count
Gregg J. Moree	54	Defeated on 6th count

As the results column hints, it doesn’t stop with #1 votes under the proportional system. The “extra” votes from winning candidates over what was needed to win and “throwaway” votes for losing candidates get reallocated based on the #2, #3, #4 etc. preferences. For example, 434 #1 votes for Leland Cheung were redistributed to the other candidates based on the #2 votes on those ballots. Supposedly, these were selected randomly from among all the ballots cast for him.

That means the 979 votes for Ken Reeves weren’t actually what got him elected. It was all the #2, #3, #4, … #18 choices that got reallocated to him during the 14 successive ballot counts that put him over the top. That worked out to 35 votes from Leland Cheung, 18 votes from Timothy Toomey, 13 votes from David Maher, 2 votes from Jamake Pascual, 4 votes from Gregg Moree, 9 votes from Gary Mello, 8 votes from James Williamson, 16 votes from Thomas Stohlman, 21 votes from Charles Marquardt, 53 votes from Matthew Nelson, 107 votes from Sam Seidel, and 275 votes from Larry Ward.

That’s perfectly democratic, right? And perfectly opaque. It seems especially egregious that Ken Reeves’s election required redistributing 275 votes from Larry Ward, as he’s the candidate with the next highest vote total that Ken Reeves defeated. How does the “winner” getting to count votes for the “loser” make the election democratic?

The ballot could be made a lot simpler with no change to this year’s results by eliminating all but #1 votes. The 9 candidates with the most votes win, period. That would mean the ballot columns for #2, #3, #4, … #18 etc. could simply be eliminated, which would be 94% simpler. Yes, there might be some years where the 9th place finisher would actually rank 10th or 11th and out of the money after all the #2, #3, #2, #3, #4, … #18 preferences are reallocated. But, really, should someone’s #18 preference be able to cancel out someone else’s #1 preference? There is, after all, another election in two years.

The real failure of the Cambridge election system is in participation. Only 15,393 ballots were cast in the city council race and only 14,939 were cast in the school committee race. This in a city with 105,162 residents. That means each of the nine city councilors theoretically represents 11,685 people, between 80% to 90% of whom either can’t or didn’t vote. Of course, that could be because the great majority of us are happy with the job our city government is doing. Still.

That's how it goes in the People's Republic of Cambridge. The election results are in, and once again the people haven’t spoken.

Did Gloria Allred Sex Up Herman Cain's Alleged Two-Handed Move?

2011-11-08T22:04:00.004-05:00

Did lawyer Gloria Allred sex up her client Sharon Bialek's accusation against Herman Cain?

Count 1 is Allred's introduction of her client:

"Instead of receiving help from Mr. Cain, he decided to provide her with his idea of a stimulus package."

That introduces both the politically controversial stimulus legislation that was passed at the beginning of the Obama administration and the image of an erect penis.

Count 2 goes to the details of what happened in the front seat of that parked car, as read from the statement that Gloria Allred no doubt help write:

"He suddenly reached over and he put his hand on my leg under my skirt and reached for my genitals. He also grabbed my head and brought it toward his crotch. I was very, very surprised and very shocked."

Look at the choice of words. Herman Cain is alleged not merely to have put a hand on the woman's leg but "under my skirt" and to have "reached for my genitals". And he is alleged not merely to have put his arm around the woman and to have drawn her towards him but to have "grabbed my head and brought it toward his crotch."

The classic front seat of the car move is for the man in the driver's seat to turn towards the woman in the passenger's seat, put his right arm around her shoulders and his left hand on her hand or her knee, then draw her in for a kiss. If the kiss is not rejected, he might move the free hand from her knee to her breast.

But who goes directly for the genitals? Is that even possible using the two-handed move way the accuser has described?

With one hand, let's say the left hand, he touches the woman's leg (if he gets skin and not cloth that is technically "under the skirt"). With the other hand, the right hand, he pulls the woman's head toward his lap which is of course blocked by his own outstretched left arm that is supposedly fiddling toward her genitals. That is quite a two-handed move.

Let's say he instead uses his right hand to grope her genital region and his left hand to grab her head. Again his right arm is in the way of bringing her head down into his lap. Find a willing partner and go practice in your car. This can't be done leading from the left or the right.

Count 3 is the strange sequence of events. First the accuser checks into her hotel, finding she has been upgraded from a standard room to a suite. Then she goes to dinner with Cain, where Cain asks her how she likes her hotel suite upgrade. Then, en route back to the hotel after dinner, Cain detours to the office where he parks and makes his move.

The clear suggestion is that Cain booked a suite for her because he meant to have sex with her there. Certainly that seems a more plausible and discreet venue for a tryst than the front seat of a parked car in front of his office building where any one of his 150 employees who happened to be working late might spot him.

The parked car in front of the office does set the scene for her to introduce the quid pro quo element, with the alleged exchange that broke off Cain's sexual advance:

She said: "Why are you doing this? You know I have a boyfriend!"

He said: "You want a job, don't you?"

That is the most damning part of the accusation. I have a great memory but a conversation 14 years ago? I might remember the subject of the conversation but exact words? In fact, about that time in the late 1990s I got a phoned death threat on my answering machine meant for someone else that I took seriously enough to report to the police. I would have to go back to the police report or the audio tape to tell you exactly the caller said.

On count 1, Gloria Allred is clearly guilty of sexing up her client's story. On count 2, the jury is still out but it looks to me that the classic front seat move has been sexed up by adding some titillating language describing a maneuver that just isn't possible to pull off. On count 3, something doesn't quite ring true but whether that can be attributed to Gloria Allred's lawyering, the accuser's poor ear for good fiction, or truth being more improbable than fiction I can't say.

High-Tech Lynchings 0, Uppity Blacks 2

2011-11-05T04:48:00.003-04:00

Politico stirred up a hornet's nest with a report last Sunday on sexual harassment charges against Republican Presidential candidate Herman Cain.

Seven days in, the story has been more about the story of the story than about the story itself. To render any kind of independent judgment on Herman Cain's fitness for office one would want to know the details of what Cain is alleged to have done. While that has been the subject of rumor and speculation, the full details have not come out.

What we do know is that two women who worked with Herman Cain when he was CEO at the National Restaurant Association in the late 1990s left the association with severance/settlement packages of $35,000 and $45,000. And that a least one of those two women objects, as you would expect she would, to Herman Cain describing the charges as baseless and false.

It may end there, with that woman saying through her lawyer that she doesn't want to revisit or discuss this matter further and the other woman not returning phone calls from the press. But not before a lot of people drew parallels to the sexual harassment charges made against Clarence Thomas when he was nominated to the Supreme Court. The Clarence Thomas hearings were a national embarassment, but he was ultimately confirmed to the U.S. Supreme Court.

Three points in favor of Herman Cain:

(1) Cain has left his wife out of this, rather than trotting her up to the press statement podium or interview couch for the ritual televised show of support.

(2) Cain hasn't run his campaign on a moral high horse. He has been consistent to a principle he expressed back in 2007 before the last election:

"People are too hung up on people's baggage. Everybody has baggage! Let it go! This country is starved for leadership."

(3) Cain's supporters are not running for the exits. I show him with 289,490 Facebook supporters on 10/19 and 333,762 today. That number has been building all week.

Is It Ciao Baby Cucina for Herman Cain?

2011-11-03T14:59:00.003-04:00

Some details are emerging on the Herman Cain sexual harassment story, as reported by PJ Media:

According to the female source, Mr. Cain and the woman had been with a large group for a long evening of food and drink at the Ciao Baby Cucina, a restaurant near NRA headquarters in downtown Washington, D.C. This was a normal routine, as the trade association worked with the food and beverage industry. Afterwards, Mr. Cain allegedly took the woman by taxi to his apartment, where she spent the night and woke up.

The female source told PJ Media that she witnessed the woman and Herman Cain break away from the large group as part of a smaller group.

Neither source has direct knowledge of what occurred at Mr. Cain's residence, but several days after the alleged incident, the female source witnessed the woman returning to her workplace "distraught." "She was very upset."

One source told PJ Media: "Some people didn’t believe [the accuser]" at the time she made the allegation. The female source recalls the woman continued working at the NRA for several weeks after the encounter; the male source recalls the woman continued working there for a few months.

Both sources claim that during this period following the incident while the woman was still employed, the NRA’s human resources office held many "closed door meetings" that included her. The woman's parents retained legal counsel and arranged an undisclosed financial settlement. The New York Times has reported that a settlement was made with a female employee that constituted $35,000, or one year's salary.

We still need more facts and a timeline of the three complaints as this meager information could go four directions: (a) Date rape. (b) Regrets on a one-nght stand. (c) Nothing actually happened beyond sleeping off a night of over-drinking at Cain's pad possibly accompanied by partial memory loss. All we really know from this report is that the young staffer became too upset to continue working with Cain. (d) Office gossipers filling in a few fleeting observations with lots of innuendo.

A timeline of where this incident fits into the complaints by the two other accusers is important. Even if nothing happened beyond giving a young coworker a ride home, in the poisoned aftermath of office gossip other women who worked for him may well have begun to attribute ulterior motives to every little innocent thing Cain said or did.

In the vernacular this is called "shitting where you eat". In the parlance of sexual harassment lawsuts it's called creating a hostile work environment. Even if it's just gossip and innuendo, one can see why an employer would settle. And if it's not just gossip and innuendo ...

On the other hand, can the facts of this story be shifting because one or more or perhaps all of the participants and witnesses were blotto at the time and don't really remember what exactly happened?

No woman is going to want to come forward and say:

"I got drunk and woke up in my boss's apartment, I didn't want to go back to work. I talked to my mom and she talked to my dad and my dad hired a lawyer, and the lawyer said I had to go back to the office so that we could get the most out of my severance pay claim. Now I've got a great career and family and would just as soon forget the whole thing. But don't call me a liar. What happened, happened."

And Herman Cain, what is he supposed to say if that is the truth of it? After all, a gentleman should never tell.

How Many Lines Has Herman Cain Crossed?

2011-11-02T14:11:00.002-04:00

We announced Saturday that Herman Cain had crossed the Biden Line. Now the question is whether he crossed another line, and subjected two female employees who worked for him at the National Restaurant Association in the 1990s to unlawful sexual harassment.

The exact details and how much substance there was to the reported complaints have not been established. Herman Cain says they were false and baseless complaints. But it is a fact that the two women complained and were paid money by the Association as part of their separation agreements.

Another fact. You can't serve as President let alone get elected without stuff like this getting out. Now at least one of the women involved says she would like to come forward, provided the confidentiality clause in the settlement agreement is waived.

My guess is that Herman Cain is not party to the confidentiality agreements, in which case it's not really his beef whether the accusers talk or not. If he was a party to the agreements, that raises some questions about the accuracy of his public statements.

It would also raise the question of whether Herman Cain has already broken confidentiality by describing the accusations as baseless and false. You can't be sued for slander for an opinion, but you also can't expect the two accusers from the 1990s to stand silent while they are effectively called liars. They may well both be liars, but they are entitled to their own good opinion of themselves, as is Herman Cain.

Besides, don't we all want to know what the two women claimed that Herman Cain did to sexually harass them? And whether these women are young or old, pretty or ugly, skinny or fat, white or black, liberal or conservative, sane or crazy? Of course we do, and we're not party to any confidentiality agreement.

Let's remember that no one besides Herman Cain has any affirmative obligation to tell us their side of the story. If the National Restaurant Association won't release the confidentiality clause, or the two women lack the fiber to risk breaking it, or they come forward and offer no comment, we may never know any more than we know now. But we can always wonder.

But wondering goes both ways. We can wonder what Herman Cain did. And we can wonder why someone who was supposedly harmed by him would not come forward with Herman Cain running for President.

Herman Cain Crosses the Biden Line

2011-10-29T23:55:00.053-04:00

Herman Cain has crossed the Biden Line. As of the end of today (10/29/2011) he has more followers (307,364) on Facebook than Joe Biden (307,205).

The Biden Line is based on the studied observation that Vice President Joe Biden is a joke and not to be taken seriously. It therefore follows that any candidate for President with fewer followers on Facebook than Joe Biden also is not a serious contender, at least not yet.

Herman Cain joins three other declared Republican candidates on the serious side of the Biden Line: Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, and Michele Bachmann. When Bachmann crossed over last May, it looked like Cain was on track to cross the Biden line in mid-July. It took him three months longer than that.

None of the other declared Republican candidates - Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Gary Johnson, Rick Santorum, or Jon Hunstman - is on track to cross the Biden Line. With just a little over two months until the Iowa caucus, they have run out of time to become serious contenders.

Firing Tear Gas on Occupy Oakland Just Confuses the Issues

2011-10-28T15:02:00.000-04:00

Is it too cycnical to suggest that a police crackdown that sends an Iraq war vet to the hospital with a head injury is just what the Occupy movement needed?

OK, white protesters like Keith Olbermann demanding an Asian-American woman mayor fire an African-American police chief or resign herself is fun to watch. But tear gas cannisters just confuse the issues being learned. Rain, snow, and subzero temperatures will do a much better job. Why use force to dislodge them when they'll be home by Christmas.

One could not devise a better lesson in the inherent problems of socialism, or a better way for that lesson to be learned than through self-administration by radical socialism's most ardent adherents. And by spreading these reeducation camps throughout the country and not just NYC, look how they have increased the educational opportunities.

Now it could get really ugly when the crowd figures out that the Obama student debt relief plan is a 10% tax for life on going to college that people who get good jobs or don't have student loans don't have to pay. But it will probably take them to age 40 to figure that out.

Elizabeth Warren the Rock-Throwing Matriarch of Mayhem

2011-10-27T16:03:00.000-04:00

Elizabeth Warren is tagged as the matriarch of mayhem and as a rock-throwing radical in this pair of videos from the Massachusetts GOP.

Who is the Masschussetss GOP?

In terms of officeholders, the Masschussetss GOP is just 32 out of 160 members in the state House of Representatives, 4 out of 40 members in the state Senate, 5 county sheriffs, 2 district attorneys, 2 out of 8 members of the Governor's Council, 0 out of 10 U.S. Congressmen and 1 out 2 U.S. Senators.

That's to say that the GOP holds just 46 out of the hundreds of political offices in the state of Massachusetts, and the only one of those offices that carries any real clout is the U.S. Senate seat held by Scott Brown. That's the seat Elizabeth Warren wants.

Alan Khazei Bows Out of U.S. Senate Race in Massachusetts

2011-10-26T19:16:00.000-04:00

Alan Khazei has been running a spirited campaign for U.S. Senate:

But tomorrow he will be officially bowing out of the race. Alan put his decision on the changing dynamics of the race and not seeing a path to win, which can be seen quite clearly on Facebook.

Republican	Followers
Scott Brown	238,930

Democrats	Followers
Elizabeth Warren	62,740
Alan Khazei	4,713
Setti Warren	2,296
Bob Massie	1,463
Marisa DeFranco	354
Herb Robinson	-
Jim King	-

Scott Brown is the clear favorite, and the Democrats desparately need to catch up. This by the way is almost a complete reversal of the situation Republicans face against President Obama.

Was Khazei's admission that he cannot see a path to victory a recognition of the strength of Elizabeth Warren, the heavy hitter Washington Democrats sent to retake the old Ted Kennedy seat? Or was it a recognition that the people have grown comfortable with Scott Brown in the people's seat?

In Massachusetts, it all comes down to independent voters. Can those independent voters go into the booth in November 2012 and punch their ballots for both Brown and Obama? Yes, they can. And they probably will.

Just Whose Occupy Movement Is It Anyway?

2011-10-26T02:12:00.000-04:00

Who wants to take credit for Ocuppy Wall Street? Two aspiring office-holders in Massachusetts have their claims.

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate for Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren of Cambridge:

"I created much of the intellectual foundation for what they do. I support what they do."

Green Party Presidential candidate Dr. Jill Stein of Lexington:

"We are hearing the need for this race in every park and plaza where there’s an encampment around this country. There's an enormous need for alternatives, and we see that breaking out all over. We are proud to give that movement an electoral voice."

Dr. Jill goes even farther in embracing the Occupy movement on her website:

"Let's take our democracy back from Wall Street. We need a new politics for the other 99% of America that doesn’t collect a CEO's salary or write big checks for politicians."

So whose movement is it anyway? Elizabeth Warren comes out of a Professorship at Harvard Law School. Jill Stein is a graduate of Harvard College and Harvard Medical School.

Talking About the 2012 Republican Candidates

2011-10-23T14:13:00.001-04:00

Facebook has a new metric. You can now see not only how many followers a candidate has but also how many people are "talking about" the candidate.

Candidate	Talking about
Herman Cain	71,131
Ron Paul	70,504
Mitt Romney	42,687
Michele Bachmann	38,930
Newt Gingrich	16,052
Rick Perry	7,197
Gary Johnson	4,778
Rick Santorum	2,968
Jon Huntsman	2,241

The anybody but Romney crowd now seems to be splitting their attention between Herman Cain and Ron Paul. If Romney focuses entirely on Cain, he may risk a Ron Paul surprise.

Michelle Bachman has been leaking support on Facebook, but it appears those who remain are still talking about her. She may do better in the votes than people expect.

Newt Gingrich has a huge following on twitter, so maybe he should rank higher than he does here.

If Rick Perry is making a big comeback after the Vegas debate, where many said he did better than in the past debates, they are not talking about it on Faceboook.

The rest of the field has been nice to have around, but it may be time to stop talking about them.

Me and Siri Walk Into a Bar ...

2011-10-21T18:55:00.001-04:00

Me: Who are you?
Siri: I am Siri ... Here to help.

Me: Where are you from?
Siri: I, Siri, was designed by Apple in California

Me: Make me dinner.
Siri: I found a number of restaurants close to you. (with list)

Me: Where is my Jeep?
Siri: I don't know who you are, but you can tell me.

Me: Tell me a joke.
Siri: I don't really know any good jokes. None, in fact.

Me: Please tell me a joke.
Siri: Two iPhones walk into a bar ... I forget the rest.

Me: Try again.
Siri: Sorry, I couldn't do that. Could you try it again, please?

Me: Where can I buy beer near here?
Siri: I found a number of bars fairly close to you. (with list)

Me: Now we're talking!

Herman Cain Beats the Vegas Odds While Rick Perry Goes Bust

2011-10-19T12:19:00.000-04:00

Last night's Republican Presidential debate in Las Vegas on CNN was a hard-hitting free-for-all that has probably left most of the candidates wishing that what happened in Vegas would stay in Vegas.

Watch how the race played out on Facebook since the last debate in New Hampshire:

Candidate	Wed 10/12 Noon	Wed 10/19 Noon	Pickup
Herman Cain	261,454	289,490	28,036
Ron Paul	540,562	552,264	11,702
Mitt Romney	1,130,150	1,137,760	7,610
Newt Gingrich	151,767	154,081	2,314
Gary Johnson	138,825	139,921	1,096
Rick Santorum	29,906	30,550	644
Jon Huntsman	20,094	20,628	534
Rick Perry	167,075	167,513	438
Michele Bachmann	460,302	459,979	-323

Herman Cain took a lot of heat at the debate on his 9-9-9 plan but came out the big winner. He is still riding the wave.

Rick Perry finished the week second to last, ahead of only Michele Bachmann who has already busted out and continues to leak support. He threw some big punches in the debate, but that's not winning him any followers. Rick Perry is spent, busted out, drawing dead.

Rick Santorum finished between two guys, Gary Johnson and Jon Huntsman, who weren't even at the debate. Santorum got his hits in, especially on the 9-9-9 plan, but isn't going anywhere. He might as well have phoned it in.

Mitt Romney was lucky to finish between Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich, two guys neither of whom is going to be elected President. The road is open for Romney to get embarrassed by Ron Paul in one or two of the early contests. Romney hasn't been able to best Ron Paul's follower pickup numbers in any of the 5 debates tracked here this fall. Romney will likely lose to Paul in Iowa and quite possibly Nevada. The Romney tortoise strategy only works if some more of these hares fall asleep in the next couple of months.

It's becoming clear that Mitt Romney's next big campaign move, in the next month or so, will likely be an endorsement from Donald Trump. The seal of approval from the President of the Wet Raccoon Club will not seal the deal. It can only hurt him in my estimation.

The next hurdle for Herman Cain is the Biden Line, getting more Facebook followers than Joe Biden. He can expect more questions on his 9-9-9 plan, but has 3 or 4 weeks to prepare. The next debate in Michigan on CNBC in 3 weeks won't draw a large audience so he really has 4 weeks until the CNN debate scheduled for Washington, DC. That means he can talk about 9-9-9 on his own terms for the next month.

After the two November debates it's time for the super committee report. That's the plan on spending cuts that's supposed to be submitted to Congress just before Thanksgiving. The Occupy movement is already in place to protest. That could take all the oxygen out of the Republican primary election, just 4 to 6 weeks before the first votes in Iowa and New Hampshire.

This Hick Will Not Be Voting for Elizabeth Warren

2011-10-19T00:11:00.002-04:00

I Did the Math, Herman Cain's 9-9-9 Plan Would Cut My Taxes 25%

2011-10-18T21:47:00.003-04:00

It's the Republican debate in Las Vegas. The Republican field from Romney to Santorum went all in against Herman Cain's 9-9-9 tax plan.

Herman Cain challenged viewers to do the math themselves. For something to do while they continued to debate, I got out my 2010 tax returns. Herman Cain's 9-9-9 plan would cut my federal taxes 25%. I crunched the numbers math a step further; I would save money even if the rates were 12-12-12 (I should keep that fact to myself).

The rest of the Republican field just went bust on 9-9-9. They all better hope that twhat happens in Vegas and stays in Vegas.

OK, 9-9-9 is a big, bold idea. But when was America afraid of big and bold ideas? I've had my doubts and the devil may be in the details, but any candidate who dismisses 9-9-9 as a stealth tax increase doesn't know what they are talking about.

Will Herman Cain Be the First Black American President?

2011-10-17T00:28:00.001-04:00

Barack Obama is the first African-American President, his father is from Africa and his mother is from America, that much is undisputed. But one recalls the January 2007 pronouncement by Debra J. Dickerson in Salon:

"Obama isn’t black."

"Black," in our political and social reality, means those descended from West African slaves. Voluntary immigrants of African descent (even those descended from West Indian slaves) are just that, voluntary immigrants of African descent with markedly different outlooks on the role of race in their lives and in politics. At a minimum, it can’t be assumed that a Nigerian cabdriver and a third-generation Harlemite have more in common than the fact a cop won’t bother to make the distinction. They’re both "black" as a matter of skin color and DNA, but only the Harlemite, for better or worse, is politically and culturally black, as we use the term.

Against that backdrop, Dick Gregory's Sunday interview with Republican Presidential candidate Herman Cain included this exchange:

MR. GREGORY: This is the cover of Newsweek magazine that'll hit stands this week. It is "Yes we Cain!: The Unlikely Rise of the Anti-Obama," talking about you. You've actually talked a bit about race, though, and you've created a contrast between yourself and your experience as an African-American, a term you don't like, by the way.

MR. CAIN: I prefer black American.

MR. GREGORY: Why? Why is that?

MR. CAIN: Because my roots go back through slavery in this country. Yes, they came from Africa, but the roots of my heritage are in the United States of America. So I consider myself a black American.

MR. GREGORY: So you draw some distinction between yourself and your experiences as a black man in America and the experience of President Obama.

MR. CAIN: Absolutely. I came from very humble beginnings. My mother was a maid, my father was a barber and janitor and a chauffeur. We, we had to, we had to learn--do things the old-fashioned way. We had to work for it. I--my parents never saw themselves as a victim, so I didn't learn how to be a victim. I didn't have anything given to me. I had to work very hard in order to be able to go to school and work my way through school. So, plus, my business experience, I have run small businesses. I have actually made pizzas, made hamburgers. I've actually had to do the inventory, clean the parking lot of a business. I've also had to ... (unintelligible) ... businesses.

MR. GREGORY: You're talking about business experience. You actually said President Obama's outside the mainstream. So you're making a different, more of a social cultural background distinction between you and the president.

MR. CAIN: More experiential. Look at his experiences vs. my experiences. It was more at a contrast of experiential differences than anything else.

Now back in 2007 the New York Times followed up the Salon hit piece by schooling Barack on how Obama Can’t Take Black Vote for Granted. Herman Cain is Republican, so he won't need that lesson. Cain says he might get a third of the black vote against Obama, not a lot but certainly more than any recent Republican Presidential candidate. Maybe enough to win the 2012 election.

Occupy Wall Street May Be Home for Christmas

2011-10-16T23:55:00.085-04:00

The big question about Occupy Wall Street and the other Occupy movement cities around the country is how long they plan to keep their tent cities doing. My prediction is that they will be home for Christmas.

Now of course, the police may clear the various parks and squares where they are now camped. But they could of course relocate and set up new tent cities.

December is significant, as Congress typically adjourns for a few weeks over Christmas. This year the U.S. has set a December 8 target for the Christmas adjournment. We saw that date extended further into December in 2009 for the Senate ObamaCare vote and in 2010 for the tax cut extension compromise. This year spending cuts are on the agenda for December, with the Super Committee set up in August scheduled to report the day before Thanksgiving.

The Super Committee may be the real target of the Occupy movement in the U.S. The Occupy protests are modeled after protests in Greece, Spain, Italy and Britain over austerity budgets. And what the Super Committee has been charged with is coming up with an austerity budget that will have bipartisan support in Congress.

If you go to the Occupy Wall Street website, you'll find that they've scheduled general assembly meetings through September 23, 2013 (internet working group meetings are scheduled into the 2020s and beyond). On the other hand, this was the original call for protesters in July:

"On the 17th of September, we want to see 20,000 people to flood into lower Manhattan, set up tents, kitchens, peaceful barricades, and occupy Wall Street for a few months."

How long is a few months? "Few" often means "three" and three months from September 17 brings you up to a week before Christmas. Christmas Day on December 25 is exactly 99 days from September 17. "We are the 99%" is their slogan so that could be the magic number.

Of course, the Occupy movement is an army, an army of activists to be sure, but still an army. And many an army has been told they'll be home by Christmas only to find themselves camped on the frozen ground through a bitterly cold winter.

Republicans Tweet But Are Enough People Listening?

2011-10-15T13:49:00.002-04:00

The Twitter gap may reflect the general lack of enthusiasm for the Republican 2012 candidates. Aside from gadfly Newt Gingrich, not many people are following what the Republicans have to say.

Candidate	Followers on 6/15/2011	Followers on 8/15/2011	Followers on 10/15/2011
Barack Obama	8,628,273	9,654,446	10,576,757

Newt Gingrich	1,324,904	1,327,013	1,334,848
Mitt Romney	51,580	71,882	134,459
Herman Cain	43,542	58,164	118,117
Michele Bachmann	52,100	75,731	104,362
Rick Perry	44,438	62,895	96,509
Ron Paul	54,455	61,763	70,778
Jon Huntsman	704	11,875	41,107
Rick Santorum	10,529	17,424	32,059
Gary Johnson	-	-	14,113

~~Donald Trump~~	615,671	686,929	802,054
~~Sarah Palin~~	561,050	632,179	677,857
~~Mike Huckabee~~	165,040	183,523	185,516
~~Mike Bloomberg~~	99,413	132,520	174,137
~~Jim DeMint~~	95,266	110,421	112,931
~~Paul Ryan~~	59,094	72,073	81,203
~~Chris Christie~~	42,041	50,832	68,657
~~Bobby Jindal~~	59,598	61,530	64,196
~~Tim Pawlenty~~	40,981	48,992	55,508
~~Thaddeus McCotter~~	-	19,726	27,477
~~Jeb Bush~~	14,937	17,263	19,864

Total Republican Followers	3,335,343	3,702,735	4,215,752

The problem for Newt Gingrich is that everyone wants to hear what he has to say but no one wants to vote for him. Mitt Romney moved up one spot while Herman Cain moved up three slots. Rick Santorum dropped a notch to seoond-to-last place. Almost forgot about Gary Johnson.

Ann Coulter and Lawrence O'Donnell Need Remedial Civil Rights History Lessons

2011-10-14T02:17:00.000-04:00

What do Ann Coulter and Lawrence O'Donnell have in common? Both dissed the giants of the civil rights movement this week, Rosa Parks in particular.

Left-wing MSNBC host Lawrence O'Donnell lectured Herman Cain:

"In fact you were in college from 1963 to 1967, at the height of the Civil Rights Movement, exactly when the most important demonstrations and protests were going on."

In fact, the greatest moment of the civil rights movement was Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.'s "I Have a Dream" speech at the Lincoln Memorial during the March on Washington for Jobs and Freedom in August 1963 and Cain did not start college until that fall. The Freedom Riders embarked on their historic bus journey through the Deep South in May 1961. Rosa Parks's refusal to move to the back of the bus sparked the Montgomery Bus Boycott in December 1955.

Not to be outdone, right-wing pundit Ann Coulter lectured the Occupy Wall Street crowd:

"If Richard Nixon had won the 1960 election instead of John F. Kennedy -- as some say he did -- there never would have been a need for Rosa Parks, the Freedom Rides and the rest of the civil disobedience of the civil rights movement."

Again, Rosa Parks defied the Jim Crow laws in December 1955, almost 5 years before the November 1960 election. In 1960 itself, Martin Luther King, Jr. was arrested in Atlanta, Georgia during a restaurat sit-in protest. John Kennedy and his brother Robert intervened to secure his release.

I say we lock Ann Coulter and Lawrence O'Donnell in a room and tell them they can't come out until they get their history straight. I promise, we won't even dream of throwing away the key. OK, we can dream.

Herman Cain Catches His Second Big Wave

2011-10-12T18:37:00.000-04:00

Last night's Republican debate at Dartmouth in New Hampshire was televised on Bloomberg TV (what channel is that?) and so was seen by almost no one. And it's been almost three weeks since the last debate on September 22.

So how has that played out on Facebook? It was Ron Paul who picked up the most followers through the three September debates. But the last three weeks belong to Herman Cain, who racked up a commanding number of new followers.

Candidate	Fri 9/23 Noon	Wed 10/12 Noon	Pickup
Herman Cain	181,117	261,454	80,337
Ron Paul	519,151	540,562	21,411
Mitt Romney	1,118,444	1,130,150	11,706
Gary Johnson	135,559	138,825	3,266
Newt Gingrich	148,855	151,767	2,912
Rick Perry	164,830	167,075	2,245
Jon Huntsman	18,527	20,094	1,567
Rick Santorum	28,448	29,906	1,458
Michele Bachmann	461,806	460,302	-1,504

This is the second big move for Herman Cain. He more than doubled his followers last spring and early summer. He looks to be on track to do that again this fall, which would propel him across the Biden Line, currently at 305,850. No candidate can be taken completely seriously until they have more Facebook followers than Joe Biden.

Mitt Romney's tortoise-like campaign is still inching forward in first place. If building a slow and steady followership can win the race, Mitt may still be first across the goal line.

Gary Johnson wasn't even in latest the debate, so everyone below him on the list must be regarded as dead in the water. He's just barely treading water along with Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Jon Huntsman, and Rick Santorum. Michele Bachman, who swam out ahead of the pack earlier in the race has been leaking supporters since early September.

Pelosi's OWS Army Marches Uptown

2011-10-12T04:00:00.000-04:00

Occupy Wall Street is moving uptown to the east side. Unions joined protesters in chanting "We are the 99%" as they marched past the Manhattan residences of billionaire David Koch, News Corp. CEO Rupert Murdoch and JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon. No word on whether they also marched past the home of George Soros.

Well we're movin on up,
To the east side.
To a deluxe apartment in the sky.
Movin on up
To the east side.
We finally got a piece of the pie.

Meanwhile, the pretext that these protests are being organized independently of the Democratic Party is growing increasingly thin. The latest is a petition of solidarity being circulated by Nancy Pelosi's Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Here is the text of the petition:

Speaker Boehner and Eric Cantor,

As Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi told reporters, "The message of the American people is that no longer will the recklessness of some on Wall Street cause massive joblessness on Main Street…"

It's time for millionaires, billionaires, and Big Oil companies to pay their fair share.

I don't remember anyone electing Nancy Pelosi the leader of the Democratic Party. In fact, I thought some guy named Barack Obama had that job.

If indefinitely occupying cities across the U.S. is Pelosi's plan to take back the U.S. House in 2012, she might want to consider how that might affect the U.S. Senate races the Democrats have to win in 2012. Two of those Democratic Senators from Newbraska and Montana have already joined Republicans in voting not to take up the jobs plan with its poison pill tax on millionaires, billionaires, and big oil companies.

The DCCC set a goal of signing up "100,000 Strong Standing with Occupy Wall Street." So far they have gotten only 38,508. That's not 99% or even 1% but something like 0.01%.

Fish don't fry in the kitchen;
Beans don't burn on the grill.
Took a whole lotta tryin'
Just to get up that hill.
Now we're up in the big leagues
Gettin' our turn at bat.
As long as we live, it's you and me baby
There ain't nothin wrong with that.

Mitt Romney Caught Between Southern Baptists, Rick Perry, Democrats.org, and Occupy Wall Street

2011-10-11T00:44:00.002-04:00

Mitt Romney has reestablished himself as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination only to come under fire from all sides.

It starts with Southern Baptist pastor Dr. Robert Jefress, who says he'd rather have a genuine Christian than a "cult" Mormon as President. And while the good pastor says he would hold his nose and vote for Mitt should Mitt get the nomination, he also says that come election day 30 million evangelical voters will stay home.

Then he's got Rick Perry essentially equating Mitt Romney with Barack Obama, particularly on the issue of health care.

Not to be outdone, Democrats.org has hit Mitt for flip-flopping on abortion rights, the auto industry bailout, the economic stimulus bill, the recession, health care, and Ronald Reagan.

Meanwhile, Occupy Wall Street has been laying into wealthy businessman like Mitt Romney with their slogan "We Are the 99%." Their signs might as well read, "Mitt Romney need not apply."

Netflix Aborts Qwikster Spinoff

2011-10-10T23:55:00.001-04:00

It isn't hard to guess why Netflix CEO Reed Hastings fell in love with the idea of spinning off his DVD business from his streaming video business. No doubt he was smitten with dollar signs when he crawled into bed with his management consultants.

But after the huge customer backlash his announcement three weeks ago triggered, it was the PR consultants who likely counselled adminstration of the morning after pill.

You don't see a walk of shame on a corporate decision very often, and in Netflix's case they are sticking with the price increase they put in this July, but are promising they will keep Netflix as one place to go for streaming and DVDs with one website, one account, one password, and no Qwikster.

The damage to the customer relationship may already have been done. I, for one, have spent a couple of good nights with Redbox.

Memorial Mural on the Fieldston Beach Seawall for Zac Woods

2011-10-09T22:00:00.023-04:00

Zac Woods died at age 23 in a boating accident off Brant Rock in Marshfield, Massachsuetts this past July. Now a mural for him has been painted on the Fieldston Beach seawall.

The new mural being finished up over Columbus Day Weekend.

The waters where Woodsy was lost in a boating accident last July.

Beatle rock is up the beach to the north from the mural.

Lots of sunbathers on an Indian Summer weekend.

U.S. Senate Democrats Face Epic Route in 2012

2011-10-07T02:37:00.000-04:00

Could Democrats lose the U.S. Senate in 2012? The real question in the face of the current Republican electoral trend is how bad they could lose it.

Democrats must defend 23 U.S. Senate seats in 2012. Republicans only have to defend 10 seats. That's a lot of opportunities for Republicans. A loss of 4 seats would give control to Republicans. A loss of 14 seats would give Republicans a filibuster-proof majority.

Democrats are particularly vulnerable in 8 races, and losing just half of these would oust Harry Reid as U.S. Senate Majority Leader.

Seat	State	Situation
Claire McCaskill	Missouri	first termer elected by only 49.6% in red state
Jon Tester	Montana	first termer elected by only 49.2% in red state
Ben Nelson	Nebraska	cornhusker kickbacker faces red state anger
Bob Menendez	New Jersey	first termer in Chris Christie country
Jeff Bingaman	New Mexico	retiring in purple state
Kent Conrad	North Dakota	retiring in red state
Jim Webb	Virginia	retiring first termer
Joe Manchin	West Virginia	won 2010 special election in red state

Democrats also have some vulnerability in 10 other races. Democrats should win most of these but could lose some of them.

Seat	State	Situation
Dianne Feinstein	California	may retire
Joe Lieberman	Connecticut	retiring
Daniel Akaka	Hawaii	retiring
Ben Cardin	Maryland	first termer
Debbie Stabenow	Michigan	second termer
Amy Klobuchar	Minnesota	first termer
Kirsten Gillibrand	New York	won 2010 special election
Sherrod Brown	Ohio	first termer
Sheldon Whitehouse	Rhode Island	first termer
Herb Kohl	Wisconsin	retiring

So how many races are vulnerable for Republicans? Just U.S. Senator Scott Brown in Massachusetts, who will be running for his first full term.

Bad Day at Black Rock Has Rick Perry Pushing Up Daisies

2011-10-05T05:07:00.002-04:00

Rick Perry had a bad day Sunday on account of a rock outside the Texas hunting camp his family once leased that had the name Niggerhead painted on it. Herman Cain called it insensitive, Mitt Romney called it offensive. No doubt, in this day and age that name is regarded as just that, insensitive and offensive.

But does Perry really need to take Al Sharpton's suggestion that he should withdraw from the race? Or is it possible that this is nothing more than a Texas ranch family naming their property many years ago after a beautiful albeit unfortunately-named wildflower?

Here we have an Echinacea, a purple coneflower of the daisy family whose roots and seeds are used in herbal medicine. These were once called niggerhead and the medicinal extract niggerhead tea.

Here we have a Black-eyed Susan, also formerly called niggerhead, another member of the daisy family and the state flower of Maryland.

One usually thinks of racist terms as having pejorative or insulting connotations. Beautiful flowers and medicinal herbs do not fit that mold. Is niggerhead an obviously racist epithet, or does it give honor by naming a flower afer a downtrodden race, a respectable word which has suffered guilt by association?

The press and the blogosphere are having a field day with Rick Perry:

The Washington Post - "Throckmorton County, where the hunting camp is located, was for years considered a virtual no-go zone for blacks because of old stories about the lynching of a black man there."

Boston.com - "Defense of Confederate symbols and Southern institutions can still be good politics below the Mason-Dixon line."

Steven Thrasher at the Village Voice - "Was Perry's campaign offering the crudest possible caption for just exactly what he was doing to that corn dog?"

chaunceydevega at Daily Kos - "Niggerhead will be a missed opportunity. This could be a teachable moment where White Americans could choose to look in the mirror and see the collective ugliness looking back at them. Whiteness, for most people in America, and indeed the world, was the face of terror. It was ugly and not beautiful."

Jason Cherkis at the Huffington Post - "Conservatives might rally around Perry's embattled campaign because a man with the living memory of what life was like for black people in the segregated South had the chutzpah to suggest that there was something 'insensitive' about a place called 'Niggerhead.'"

Jon Stewart also weighed in on The Daily Show:

The Daily Show
Get More: Daily Show Full Episodes,Political Humor & Satire Blog,The Daily Show on Facebook

All we can say for sure at this point is that the Texas property came by its unfortunate name many years before the Perry family began leasing it. Hints at a dark connection to so-far-undocumented lynchings notwithstanding, it could easily have been named for nothing more than a once-common colloquial name for a native wildflower.

Rick Perry's says his family painted over the old name as soon as they took up the hunting lease and later turned the stone over so it could not be read. Others claim the name was or is still visible, although oddly there were no pictures published of the alledgedly racist rock in the original Washington Post story, none out there that I could find.

Now don't get me wrong, if Rick Perry was actually inviting people out to the hunting camp using the name Niggerhead, that's a fatal political mistake showing poor judgment, rank stupidity, and gross insensitivity. But so far all the story really establishes is that the old name for the place may have been incompletely obscured and some of the oldtimers in the rural county continued using the old name.

You might ask who actually owns the property. That is reportedly the Hendrick Home for Children Trust, a 70-some-year-old charity that judging by the pictures on its website serves children without regard to race or ethnicity.

Liz Longley Offers a Ride in Her Camaro

2011-10-04T23:50:00.000-04:00

Liz Longley will be back in town to play Club Passim on November 17.

Somerville Crowns the 2011 Pharaoh of Fluff in Union Square

2011-09-26T06:38:00.000-04:00

I went to Union Square on Saturday and didn't leave until I had consumed a fluffernutter sandwich and a fluff-filled s'more. The annual What the Fluff festival in Somerville celebrates a distinctly New England delicacy invented in the city, marshmallow fluff.

Dave Manganello was the 2010 Fabulous Pharaoh of Fluff, introduced here by Hi-Jinx Mistress Jamie Waltz.

Brian Agosta was crowned as the Pharaoh of Fluff for 2011.

Celebrity judges for the Pharaoh selction were songwriter Allee Willis, who wrote the song "September" made famous by Earth, Wind & Fire, and Susan Olsen, who starred as Cindy Brady on The Brady Bunch. Yes, Cindy has grown up, that's her in the pink shirt.

Geri Reischl, who played Jan Brady in 9 episodes of the Brady Bunch, also took part in the Fluff festivities by serving "Fake Jan" sandwiches at the Sherman Cafe.

Susan Olsen also exhibited a series of Fluff art pieces at Bloc 11. Cindy, Cindy, Cindy:

Barack Obama Takes Off His Bedroom Slippers and Puts On His Marching Shoes for the Congressional Black Caucus

2011-09-25T14:42:00.002-04:00

Quoting Martin Luther King, Jr., Barack Obama lamented at the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation annual awards dinner that "there is a frustrating and bewildering wilderness ahead." President Obama continued:

“The future rewards those who press on. With patient and firm determination we will press on. I don’t know about you CBC, but the future rewards those who press on. With patient and firm determination, I’m going to press on for jobs. I’m going to press on for equality. I’m going to press on for the sake of our children. I’m going to press on for the sake of all those families who are struggling right now. I don’t have time to feel sorry for myself. I don’t have time to complain. I’m going to press on. I expect all of you to march with me, and press on. Take off your bedroom slippers, put on your marching shoes, shake it off, stop complaining, stop grumbling, stop crying, we are going to press on, we’ve got work to do.”

The Daily Kos headlined this speech as Obama Kicked Booty Tonight and even Andrew Breitbart took notice.

Update: Democratic Congresswoman Maxine Walters probably thinks this song is about her.

Ron Paul Wins Three Debates in a Row

2011-09-23T13:37:00.000-04:00

Here's how last night's Republican debate played out on Facebook, looking at followers picked up since the previous debate.

Candidate	Tue 9/13 Noon	Fri 9/23 Noon	Pickup
Ron Paul	505,555	519,151	13,596
Mitt Romney	1,107,211	1,118,444	11,233
Rick Perry	157,088	164,830	7,742
Herman Cain	175,195	181,117	5,922
Gary Johnson	134,036	135,559	1,523
Newt Gingrich	147,433	148,855	1,422
Jon Huntsman	17,445	18,527	1,082
Rick Santorum	27,679	28,448	769
Michele Bachmann	462,233	461,806	-427

Ron Paul is the big winner of the September debates, at least on Facebook. He picked up the most followers since the last debate, as he did for the 9/12 and 9/7 debates.

Mitt Romney has moved up from third to second, while Rick Perry has fallen down into Herman Cain territory. The bleeding has resumed for Michele Bachmann, with followers actually dropping off after 2 of the last 3 debates.

Gary Johnson was not invited to the 9/12 debate, pickup for him is since 9/16. He practically endorsed Ron Paul during the debate.

Elizabeth Warren and the Threat of Marauding Bands of Asthma Sufferers

2011-09-22T13:22:00.000-04:00

I'm all for getting back to a balanced budget even if that means some increased tax revenue, but don't sign me up for the class warfare.

Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren has a message to factory owners on why they should accept a tax increase:

"You didn't have to worry that marauding bands would come and seize everything at your factory."

Marauding bands? Warren clearly has in mind the left-wing activists protesting on Wall Street since Saturday with the chants "pay your share."

You call this a revolution? The videographers among the protesters outnumber the guys actually willing to get arrested by 20 to 2. One of those guys has asthma and desperately needs his inhaler, the other says he could really use a new pair of handcuffs.

That being a NYPD cop is a hard job. One day it's two planes being flown into the World Trade Center. Another day it's lefty college students with large backpacks, even larger attitudes, and the National Lawyers Guild on their cell phone speed dial. We've come a long way, black cops dragging white kids through the streets in handcuffs.

Back to Elizabeth Warren. Why pick on the few remaining U.S. factory owners? They have a very tough job these days competing against cheaper labor in foreign countries. And if the communists in China will do a better job than Democrats in the U.S. at protecting them from marauding bands ...

True Confessions of a Jilted Netflix Movie Slut

2011-09-21T01:39:00.004-04:00

What is a movie slut to do? Netflix has decided to split its instant streaming and DVD by mail businesses, and that means I have to rethink my whole movie-watching lifestyle.

First it's confession time, I watch a lot of movies. When it comes to the 1-5 star ratings, give me a 3-star movie and I'm happy. Give me an occassional 2-star, I'm not proud. They don't all have to be Being There, I like to watch. Just how many movies I watch is a lot of movies:

Year	Total Movies	Instant Titles	DVD Titles	Avg Days
2002	128	-	128	9
2003	147	-	147	10
2004	161	-	161	9
2005	122	-	122	12
2006	150	-	150	10
2007	168	-	168	9
2008	152	11	141	11
2009	277	174	103	17
2010	224	156	68	22
2011	147	96	51	14
Total	1676	437	1239	11

Now, not all of these titles are movies. Some are TV shows, in fact a great many of the Instant titles are TV serials. And that's a big difference on Netflix between Instant and DVD. DVD has a lot of recent movies, really pretty much all the new movies that have come out on DVD or Blu-ray. Instant doesn't, at least not yet.

Netflix wants $7.99 per month ($96 per year) for the Instant unlimited streaming plan. That's a good deal, around 62 cents per title. And I can stream Netflix directly onto my TV through my Samsung Blu-ray player. But Instant doesn't get me many of the new movies I want to see.

I'm on the 3 DVDs out at a time plan which costs $19.99 per month ($240 per year). That is costing me about $3.50 per title, which judged on price alone is not such a great deal. And now it's going to be called Qwikster. The clear message from Netflix is to find a new service before Qwikster goes into the dumpster.

What made Netflix by mail great was the convenience of dropping the returns in the mail box and getting another movie by return mail. For the first few years I supplemented by also renting from Blockbuster, and that covered the
occassional inconvenience of not having a Netflix movie I wanted to watch.

When I stopped going to Blockbuster I put myself on the 4 DVDs at-a-time plan to help cover that gap. But that lead to doing things like keeping out Where the Wild Things Are for 186 days from 5/6/2010 to 11/8/2010 and The Bunker for 147 days from 7/14/2010 to 12/8/2010. Also, the average number of days I was keeping DVDs before watching them increased with the addition of Instant movies. So when Netflix raised its prices at the beginning of this year, I dropped back to 3 DVDs at-a-time.

Blockbuster by mail has a 3 DVDs out at a time plan for $20 per month. But that's the same price as the Netflix Qwikster option. The nearest Blockbuster store is 5 miles away. I'm not going to drive from Cambridge to Malden for a movie. Blockbuster lost my business when they closed their store that was only half a mile away.

Hulu Plus costs $8 a month but like Netflix instant streaming I've heard it doesn't have a lot of movies. I'd need to buy a $59 Roku box to connect to my TV. And Hulu has commercials, so why switch?

Amazon gives you free unlimited streaming if you sign for Amazon Prime at $79 per year. Or you can rent instant movies for around $4. But just what is available, for how long, and how do I hook that up to my TV is all unclear.

Comcast On Demand has a lot of new movies, some are free, but the best new movies cost $5 and up and are typically only available for a limited period of time. I expect to rent more than 4 movies a month (48 a year) so I am better off with Netflix Qwikster.

Redbox may be the best deal. They have one of their red movie vending machines at my grocery store. The rental deal is $1 a day for DVDs and $1.50 a day for Blu-ray. That compares well to Netflix even if I keep the movie 2 or 3 days. I'm not keen on having to return movies, but at least it's a trip to the grocery store.

So for now I'm keeping Netflix Instant, but I'm dropping DVD by mail from 3-at-a-time to 2-at-a-time. Netflix CEO Reed Hastings doesn't need to know, but he just saved me $5 a month, which is $60 per year. Redbox will get my bootie calls when I'm in the mood for a little something extra on the side. Who knows, I think this may be the beginning of a beautiful friendship.

Update: Redbox.com has a cool see-inside-the-box feature. I can pick a location on their website and browse through the list of movies inside that particular vending machine, reserve one, and go pick it up.

Netflix Doubles Down with a Streaming Pile of BS

2011-09-19T04:22:00.001-04:00

After annoying all of their customers with a price increase over the summer, Netflix has done it again. They are now splitting the streaming video service (to still be called Netflix) and the DVD by mail service (to be called Qwikster). That's right, two websites that won't talk to each other and two charges on your credit card statement.

I suspect that CEO Reed Hastings is right, he needs to move ahead with the streaming video service without being tied down to the old concepts of the DVD mail queue. In the meantime, he has pissed off all of his longtime customers.

Here's the problem and Reed already knows what it is:

"A negative of the renaming and separation is that the Qwikster.com and Netflix.com websites will not be integrated.So if you subscribe to both services, and if you need to change your credit card or email address, you would need to do it in two places.Similarly, if you rate or review a movie on Qwikster, it doesn’t show up on Netflix, and vice-versa."

So creating this problem, for this is a self-created problem, can only mean one thing. Netflix expects its customers to choose between the DVD by mail service and streaming video. And you can tell where Netflix thinks the future lies, the streaming service will continue to bear the name Netflix but the original DVD by mail service gets the extremely lame name Qwikster.

Reed nonetheless thinks he needs to do this, and here's why:

Companies rarely die from moving too fast, and they frequently die from moving too slowly.

Actually, companies die from moving too fast all the time.

Glenn Beck for Less Than $1 Per Day

2011-09-19T02:58:00.000-04:00

Are you missing your Glenn Beck fix? It's been a dry summer for Glenn Beck fans. But now he's back with GBTV.com.

You can feed the addiction at $4.95 per month (or $49.95 per year) or take the even bigger hit for Glenn Beck Plus at $9.95 ($99.95 per year). The includes extras such as Making of GBTV, billed as an exclusive reality program giving a look behind the scenes of the building of GBTV.

This new delivery model could make Glenn Beck rich. For example, if all 2 million of Glenn Beck's followers on Facebook signed up, that would be $100 million in revenue, $200 million if they all signed up for Glenn Beck Plus. It won't do so well if none of them sign up.

And that's a distinct possibility. GBTV has already taken heat from Sarah Palin fans after a joke on Beck's show about her alleged affair with Glen Rice played off of calling Sarah a quitter.

But I suspect there will be some subscribers. And with the show streaming out over the internet, who knows. That guy with the iPad and the headphones at the booth in the trendy lesbian coffee shop may be watching Glenn Beck.

Republicans May Like Rick Perry But They Aren't Ready to Friend Him

2011-09-16T13:12:00.002-04:00

I've been following the Republican 2012 primary race in the polls and on Facebook since January. We now have a new situation. Rick Perry is leading in the polls but hasn't built up a corresponding following on Facebook.

Candidate	Friends on 1/16/2011	Friends on 3/16/2011	Friends on 5/16/2011	Friends on 7/16/2011	Friends on 9/16/2011
Barack Obama	17,822,152	18,632,331	20,413,245	22,038,067	23,133,522
Joe Biden	271,971	274,670	282,433	299,388	304,953

Sarah Palin	2,606,586	2,777,509	2,957,627	3,191,711	3,238,066
Mitt Romney	751,391	814,705	899,055	1,041,454	1,110,938
Ron Paul	307,493	307,495	356,452	419,099	510,540
Michele Bachmann	150,467	187,433	258,370	422,366	462,345
Herman Cain	42,289	55,720	90,146	149,820	176,534
Rick Perry	51,455	52,180	52,854	70,425	160,305
Jim DeMint	127,177	129,848	133,363	143,436	148,845
Newt Gingrich	100,489	113,269	131,779	142,281	148,009
Gary Johnson	-	110,466	114,000	129,275	134,036
Rick Santorum	12,211	13,252	16,221	23,482	27,860
Jon Huntsman	-	1,555	2,280	9,347	17,832
Thaddeus McCotter	-	-	9,909	11,812	12,552
Peter King	-	-	11,232	11,525	11,652
Jimmy McMillan	-	8,362	8,675	9,141	9,988
Roy Moore	-	-	70	8,235	8,294
Buddy Roemer	-	570	1,496	1,806	4,590
Rudy Giuliani	1,891	2,194	2,535	3,211	4,289
Fred Karger	681	826	1,458	2,117	3,398
Andy Martin	-	-	560	570	573
Jonathon Sharkey	-	-	159	170	352

~~Mike Huckabee~~	522,079	541,409	586,020	647,376	658,920
~~Donald Trump~~	146,866	184,512	272,108	300,401	318,603
~~Scott Brown~~	-	-	237,462	239,086	239,053
~~Rand Paul~~	-	105,001	117,287	137,580	146,080
~~Bobby Jindal~~	121,977	122,353	125,614	129,824	130,959
~~Tim Pawlenty~~	69,985	73,135	86,907	103,337	102,720
~~Paul Ryan~~	50,908	56,496	71,923	79,181	83,785
~~John Thune~~	74,754	74,837	75,211	75,442	75,244
~~Allen West~~	-	-	64,057	67,330	74,568
~~Scott Walker~~	-	61,527	63,129	64,621	66,083
~~Mitch Daniels~~	39,413	44,528	49,908	50,614	51,175
~~Mike Pence~~	45,923	47,712	48,542	48,893	48,949
~~Chris Christie~~	29,388	33,990	36,536	42,563	46,671
~~Mike Bloomberg~~	29,862	30,344	31,316	32,879	36,995
~~Haley Barbour~~	16,854	17,459	18,168	18,604	18,775
~~John Bolton~~	5,170	5,658	6,056	6,354	6,826
~~Jeb Bush~~	4,841	5,027	5,300	5,556	5,745
~~Jon Greenspon~~	581	584	583	583	-

Total Democratic Friends	18,094,123	18,907,001	20,695,678	22,337,455	23,438,475
Total Republican Friends	5,310,731	5,979,951	6,944,368	7,841,507	8,302,149

Rick Perry has surged on Facebook in the last two months to be sure, jumping three slots, but he still hasn't crossed the Biden line, the minimum number of followers on Facebook a candidate has to have to be taken seriously. Perry may get there in the next couple of months, but then again he may not. For now, the Republican interest in Rick Perry should be judged a flirtation.

Speaking of flirts, Sarah Palin has said she will announce her decision this month, so we may learn in the next couple of weeks if we can officially cross her off. She and a few other candidates we still judge to be flirting with running have gone into italics.

Meanwhile, Ron Paul has traded places again with Michele Bachmann. Ron Paul has actually added slightly more friends than Rick Perry in the last two months. Towards the bottom of the list, Jon Huntsman and Buddy Roemer each moved up 2 slots.

Obama-Biden added 1.1 million followers in the last two months, a slowing pace but still far ahead of the Republican field which added less than half that. Of course, the Democrats only wish the election could be held on Facebook. In the real world, with the election still a year away, it looks like it is shaping up to be close.

Czarina Elizabeth Warren is "Going to Do This" in Massachusetts

2011-09-15T01:18:00.000-04:00

"I am going to do this" the blued-eyed blonde croons into the YouTube camera. What is this, you ask? You mean you haven't been sitting on the edge of your seat anxiously awaiting Elizabeth Warren's decision? She's just announced that she is running for the U.S. Senate, for the people's seat, the one currently held by Republican Scott Brown.

"Washington is rigged for big corporations that can hire armies of lobbyists." says Warren. Then she hits on GE, the big company that reportedly lost so much money on in the financial crisis that its corporate income tax bill was zeroed out.

That's an odd target given that President Obama made GE's CEO Jeffrey Immelt his point person in the business community on jobs, and had him sitting with Michelle Obama for his big jobs speech before the joint session of Congress last week.

But that's the Democratic Party these days. It bites the hand that feeds it.

And who is this Elizabeth Warren? The Oklahoma native bounced around teaching at a bunch of law schools before landing a tenured spot at Harvard Law School.

There she became a minor celebrity after starring in the documentary Maxed Out: Hard Times, Easy Credit and the Era of Predatory Lenders (2006) and then appearing in the Michael Moore documentary Capitalism: A Love Story (2009). Elizabeth Warren is some kind of marxist-socialist, in other words, complete with her own IMDB page.

Professor Warren first made her bones in Washington, DC as the Bailout Czar, chairperson of the Congressional Oversight Panel on the Troubled Asset Relief Program. Time Magazine named her to its list of the 100 Most Influential People in the World in May 2009.

Warren went on to be named the Credit Card and Mortgage Czar as the Special Advisor for the United States Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. For that, Time Magazine named her one of the new Sheriffs of Wall Street in May 2010.

Sheriffs are usually elected or at least appointed and Elizabeth would have liked to trade her Special Advisor title to be the CFPB's official director, but that job required Senate confirmation and the Senate was in no hurry, either before or after the November 2010 mid-term election, to anoint a controversial White House Czar.

So Warren was passed over by the Obama administration in favor of Richard Cordray, who previously served as the Attorney General of Ohio. Some might be excused for thinking that a former state attorney general will be a better consumer protector than a law professor who hasn't practiced much law in years.

But Elizabeth Warren took the Senate rebuff personally and decided that the best way to get even was to run for U.S. Senate. So she went back to her native Oklahoma to run against unreconstructed conservative Republicans Tom Coburn or James Inhofe, right? Wrong, she is "going to do this" in Massachusetts.

The irony is that her new pet CFPB agency was created by the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. And guess who was one of the few Republicans to join Senate Democrats in passing that law? You guessed it, Scott Brown. Way to encourage bipartisanship. Bite the hand that feeds you has become vintage Elizabeth Warren.

It's not that Elizabeth Warren doesn't show some promise, particularly as a fiscal disciplinarian. She wrote a book with her daughter Amelia Warren Tyagi called All Your Worth: The Ultimate Lifetime Money Plan (2005). She knows how to balance a budget:

"The Secret? It's simple really: Get your money in balance. Warren and Tyagi show you how to divide and conquer. You will learn to balance your money into three essential parts: the Must-Haves (the bills you have to pay month after month), the Wants (some fun money for right now), and your Savings (so you can build a better tomorrow). No complicated budgets, and no keeping track of every penny you spend. Once you have the basics, it gets easy. You can put your money worries behind you and get on with what really matters--living your life."

So we can expect Czarina Warren to support a balanced budget amendment? I'll bet she bites the hand that fed her again. In Maxed Out Professor Warren was asked to comment on the U.S. debt, which was then at $7.3 trillion.

"Where's the exit strategy for this? Really, I mean it, I ask it as a rhetorical question, ... I don't know the answer."

Today the U.S. debt is at $14.7 trillion and counting.

I went to Warren's campaign website and scrolled through her priorities: education, construction, renewable energy, research, a level playing field, workers’ rights, and fair trade. Not a word about the U.S. debt. So what would we do during her 6 year Senate term, double down on the debt again? $29.4 trillion here we come.

Can Ron Paul Steamroll the Republican Field?

2011-09-13T12:49:00.001-04:00

It was pick on Rick Perry night at the GOP Tea Party Express debate televised by CNN in Tampa, Florida. Even Sarah Palin, who wasn't even there, took a shot at him. But the real story may be Ron Paul, who has won these last two debates, at least on Facebook.

Candidate Thu Noon Tue Noon Pickup
Ron Paul 497,643 505,555 7,912
Rick Perry 151,275 157,088 5,813
Mitt Romney 1,102,028 1,107,211 5,183
Herman Cain 172,534 175,195 2,661
Jon Huntsman 16,270 17,445 1,175
Newt Gingrich 146,512 147,433 921
Rick Santorum 27,158 27,679 521
Michele Bachmann 462,184 462,233 49

Candidate	Thu Noon	Tue Noon	Pickup
Ron Paul	497,643	505,555	7,912
Rick Perry	151,275	157,088	5,813
Mitt Romney	1,102,028	1,107,211	5,183
Herman Cain	172,534	175,195	2,661
Jon Huntsman	16,270	17,445	1,175
Newt Gingrich	146,512	147,433	921
Rick Santorum	27,158	27,679	521
Michele Bachmann	462,184	462,233	49

To measure how many new followers were attracted by the debate coverage, we counted Facebook followers for the candidates at noon on Thursday following the previous debate and again at noon Tuesday following his debate.

Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Herman Cain are fighting it out for the conservative pro-business mantel with some cheerleading from Newt Gingrich and heckling from Jon Huntsman. Michele Bachmann was hemorrhaging support in the last debate but seems to have stopped the bleeding, at least for now. Rick Santorum is going nowhere.

That leaves Ron Paul, who picked up nearly a third of the new support. He's got an alternative vision for the Republican Party, a place where conventional wisdom says most Republicans don't want to go. He has been largely left out of the various Tea Party events for the last 3 years, but in some sense he is the founder of the movement. The Tea Party vote may be his for the taking.

What if Ron Paul turns his second place Ames finish in August into a win at the Iowa Caucuses in January, finishes second or better in Live Free or Die New Hampshire, and wins the big Tea Party vote in South Carolina?

That would be a lot of momentum coming out of the first three contests. And even if Ron Paul fell short of winning the nomination, he could be in a position to dictate terms.

Ron Paul Rails Against Pretty Boys and Plastic Men

2011-09-12T18:52:00.001-04:00

This comes courtesy of one the new the SuperPacs. Here's how that works, they make the ad and post it on their YouTube channel. If you like it and want to contribute money so they can run it on TV in major primary states, you can do that on their website.

That sounds like a great business model, as I'm sure they take out a "small" fee to cover "administrative" expenses. SuperPACs have no contribution limits, so if you want to drop $1 million into your PayPal account, that can go straight to the Revolution Pac.

If you make your pledge between now and September 19, you can participate in the Super Money Bomb.

And the only question they'll ask is if you are a U.S. citizen or U.S.-based business or organization. The answer they are looking for is Yes. Because no one lies about such things on the internet.

It's Monday Morning Again

2011-09-12T11:30:00.002-04:00

A Lot to Remember on the 10th Anniversary of 9/11

2011-09-11T23:49:00.007-04:00

There is a lot to remember on the 10th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center in New York City and the Pentagon outside Washington, DC.

Of course, we also remember the brave passngers on Flight 93 in the skies over Shanksville, Pennsylvania and Seal Team 6 in Abbottabad, Pakistan.

But there are a lot more attacks to remember:

Notable Al Qaeda Attacks
Place	Method	Date	Killed	Injured
2 hotels in Aden, Yemen	Bombs	12/29/1992	2	7
World Trade Center in NYC	Truck bomb	2/26/1993	6	1,042
Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad, Iran	Bomb	6/20/1994	11	200
Flight 434 from Manila to Tokyo	Luggage bomb	12/11/1994	1	10
Khobar, Saudi Arabia	Truck bomb	6/25/1996	20	372
Reputed assassination attempt on then President Bill Clinton in Manila, Phillipines	Roadside bomb	11/25/1996	0	0
Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Nairobi, Kenya	Car bomb	8/7/1998	223	4,000+
LAX plotter arrested entering U.S. from Canada in Port Angeles, Washington	Car bomb	12/14/1999	0	0
USS Cole in port at Aden, Yemen	Boat bomb	10/12/2000	17	39
24 Christian Churches in Indonesia	Bomb	12/24/2000	19	120
World Trade Center in NYC and the Pentagon	Hijacked airplanes	9/11/2001	2,977	6,000+
Flight 63 from Paris, France to Miami, Florida	Shoe bomb	12/22/2001	0	3
Kuta, Bali, Indonesia	Backpack and car bombs	10/12/2002	202	240
Mega Kuningan, South Jakarta, Indonesia.	Car bomb	8/5/2003	12	150
Instanbul, Turkey	Truck bomb	11/15/2003 11/20/2003	47	700+
Madrid, Spain	Backpack bombs	3/11/2004	192	2,050
Australian Embassy in Jakarta, Indonesia.	Van bomb	9/9/2004	9	150+
London, United Kingdom	Backpack bombs	7/7/2005	53	700
Bali, Indonesia	Backpack bombs	10/1/2005	20	129
3 hotels in Amman, Jordan	Belt bombs	11/9/2005	60	115
Islamabad, Pakistan	Dump truck bomb	9/20/2008	54	266
Mumbai, India	Shootings and bombings	11/26/2008	154	308
2 hotels in Jakarta, Indonesia	Bombing	7/17/2009	7	53
Fort Hood, Texas	Shootings	11/5/2009	13	29
Flight 253 from Amsterdam, Netherlands to Detroit, Michigan	Underwear bomb	12/25/2009	0	2
Times Square NYC	Car bomb	5/1/2010	0	0
Attempted assassination of UK MP Stephen Timms in Beckton, East London, United Kingdom	Knife	5/14/2010	0	1
Air cargo bound for Chicago, Illinois	Printer cartridge bombs	10/29/2010	0	0
Killeen, Texas	Guns and homemade bomb	7/27/2011	0	0
Total for these 30 attacks			4,099	16,686+

Attacks by Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq are too numerous to list and this list is no doubt in other ways incomplete.

Lessons for the United States:

(1) Al Qaeda is an organization and also a movement. If some of the attacks on the list were not carried out by the organization, they were carried out by the movement.

(2) The Al Qaeda movement shows no signs of abating and the United States is not its only target. Yes, Osama Bin Laden is dead, but Ayman al-Zawahiri and Anwar al-Awlaki are not.

(3) Constant vigilance is the only effective defense, and even that is not going to be 100% effective. That's the reality even if it's not the kind of closure Americans crave.

President Obama Puts the Jobs Job Back on Us

2011-09-09T00:58:00.000-04:00

President Obama put aside his frustations with Congress and gave a speech on jobs tonight. It was hard to follow the details but it all had a nice ring to it.

He sent me an email with these thoughts before his speech:

I'm about to head to the Capitol to ask Congress to act on my plan to put Americans back to work.

Before I do, I wanted to write you directly to remind you that the fight to create jobs -- and provide the kind of economic security for middle-class families that's been slipping away over the last decade -- won't begin or end with the speech I give tonight.

What happens will be up to you. In the coming days and weeks, it will be up to you to pressure Congress to act -- or hold them accountable if they do not.

Well, I guess creating jobs is our job now. But wasn't it always? For my part, I'm not sure I'm going to spend my time pressuring Congress to act. That seems like a waste of time these days.

Yes, we should build the bridges, roads, schools, and other projects that need to be built. Aside from that, we may have reached the point where it would be better for Washington, DC to stop fiddling and let us figure this out on our own.

Meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers (socialists) beat the New Orleans Saints (capitalists) in the first NFL game of the regular season. I'm sure if you asked the Packers why they won, they would answer it was a little luck and a lot of hard work.

The Social Security "Ponzi" Scheme is Better than Nothing

2011-09-08T13:29:00.001-04:00

This is not a defense of our Socal Security system as it is currently structured. But opponents of the system should understand why their ideas to ditch it often don't go very far.

Those who want to do away with Social Security almost always want to do so on the cheap. Just get rid of it. It's a no brainer if you're 20 (assuming you have a brain and many don't at age 20) but not if you're 50.

I know exactly how much has been payed in to Social Security for me. If your offer is 75 cents on the dollar to replace the system, I might go for it. I have a few years left to make it back with a better system.

But if your offer is zero, no thanks. That would be a very, very bad deal. The fact that you might be willing to take zero is no reason I should.

And for people who are retired at 70, your offer needs to be close to 100 cents, as there is no opportunity for them to make it back.

If you're going to beat me down with the Ponzi scheme, let me say two things. Even the Madoff victims are getting 50 cents on the dollar back. And the question is, where did the money go when the Social Security system has been running surpluses for the last 30 years? Into defense spending, that's where. So America got a tangible benefit, and it's not unfair to ask America to pay it back.

And even the portion that went to the elderly, that's also a tangible benefit to America. It means middle-aged people today don't have to support elderly parents who might otherwise be destitute. The benefits of Social Security trickle down, even if they don't trickle down as much as you would like.

So you want out and you don't want to buy me out. Let me opt out you say. I know how that works, you opt out but your grandmother stays in. I have to pay for your grandmother plus my own grandmother. No thanks.

How much are you willing to pay to get out? Again, if your offer is zero, I am going to just say no to what would be a very bad deal.

Perry-Huntsman Would Be the Perfect Al Gore Party Ticket

2011-09-08T13:08:00.002-04:00

Think about it. Rick Perry supported Al Gore back in his 1988 run. And John Huntsman wants to be the Republican poster boy for climate change legislation. Yes, Perry-Huntsman would remake the Republican Party as the Al Gore Party.

Night of the Texans as Ron Paul Duels Rick Perry

2011-09-08T00:41:00.003-04:00

The GOP debate last night at the Reagan Library in California came down to a duel between the two Texans, Ron Paul and Rick Perry. Forget the pundits and analysis, here is how it scored on Facebook.

We counted Facebook followers for the candidates at noon on Wednesday and again on noon Thursday, to see how many new followers might have been attracted by the debate performance and coverage.

Candidate Wed Noon Thu Noon Pickup
Ron Paul 495,011 497,643 2,632
Rick Perry 148,846 151,275 2,429
Mitt Romney 1,100,647 1,102,028 1,381
Herman Cain 171,512 172,534 1,022
Jon Huntsman 15,257 16,270 1,013
Newt Gingrich 146,042 146,512 470
Rick Santorum 27,009 27,158 149
Michele Bachmann 462,347 462,184 -163

Candidate	Wed Noon	Thu Noon	Pickup
Ron Paul	495,011	497,643	2,632
Rick Perry	148,846	151,275	2,429
Mitt Romney	1,100,647	1,102,028	1,381
Herman Cain	171,512	172,534	1,022
Jon Huntsman	15,257	16,270	1,013
Newt Gingrich	146,042	146,512	470
Rick Santorum	27,009	27,158	149
Michele Bachmann	462,347	462,184	-163

Rick Perry is supposed to be the new entrant who is gaining momentum, and he certainly picked up some followers. But the real surge is Ron Paul, who finished second at the Ames Straw Poll in Iowa last month, and won this debate at least on Facebook.

Michele Bachmann, queen for a day at Ames, has stalled. She actually lost followers during the debate day. Mitt Romney continues to roll along, but clearly the man who is still the front-runner on Facebook faces a challenge from two Texans, not just one.

Ron Paul is also pummeling Rick Perry with this ad for being a cheerleader for Al Gore back in 1988:

Ron Paul is getting under Rick Perry's skin. You can see that in this picture of Rick putting his hand on Ron's while waving his finger in Ron's face.

By comparison, Barack Obama picked up 16,007 followers on Facebook in our 24 hour window. So he's not sweating this debate as he prepares for his big speech tonight.

MSNBC-Politico Debate at Reagan Library

2011-09-07T22:26:00.002-04:00

No, the debate was not between MSNBC and Politico, it was between the 2012 Republican candidates.

Rick Perry's smirk and Jon Huntsman's tan both scream don't trust me.
I guess it will be Perry-Huntsman.

Ron Paul eloquently explains where Ronald Reagan went wrong, with Nancy Reagan sitting in the front row of her husband's library. You don't see that kind of integrity at the top of a ticket.

Michele Bachmann says she'll take in all the children Rick Santorum wants to kick off of food stamps.

Herman Cain wants to replace Social Security with a Chilean sea bass, served with some fava beans and a nice chianti.

Newt Gingrich rallies the Eight Musketeers against the evil Cardinal Richelieu, all for one and one for all is not how a primary works.

Mitt Romney is too hapless to mock. Apparently he has never done anything right in his whole life.

So who was the debate winner? Barack Obama, I'm afraid. Whose bright idea was it to schedule a Republican debate to be followed by analysis from MSNBC's lean leftward lineup? Ed Schultz, Al Sharpton, Rachel Maddow, Lawrence O'Donnell, Eugene Robinson, and Chris Matthews.

Mitt Romney Jobs Plan Gives U.S. Jobs to Foreign Grad Students

2011-09-07T01:30:00.001-04:00

"Romney, Believe in America" is the slogan, "Mitt Romney's Plan for Jobs and Economic Growth" is the plan, and "Human Capital Policy" is the heading. There are a couple of pesky little details buried under that heading:

"Romney will raise the ceiling on the number of visas issued to holders of advanced degrees in math, science, and engineering who have job offers in those fields from U.S. companies. Romney will also work to establish a policy that staples a green card to the diploma of every eligible student visa holder who graduates from an American university with an advanced degree in math, science, or engineering."

Now I know Mitt Romney made much of his money from selling staples, but did I read that right? Because here's how a lot of people are going to read that:

(1) Romney's plan plus a few bogus master's degrees in landscape engineering from the University of San Carlos of Guatemala would enable him to rehire the gardeners he had to fire during his 2008 Presidential campaign.

(2) Who needs immigration reform if President Romney hands immigration policy over to the lefty liberals in the admissions office at the Harvard University Graduate School of Arts and Sciences? Not to mention the admissions office at the University of San Carlos of Guatemala.

(3) What kind of jobs plan is it to give U.S. jobs to foreigners? Mitt, the Tea Party will take your stapler away chanting, "Romney Doesn't Believe in America" arm-in-arm with their brothers in the Teamsters.

Now I suppose you are wondering, how does such a plan reduce unemployment? Actually, in a perverse way it might work. Let's say we have 1,000 workers and 91 are unemployed. That's the 9.1% unemployment rate we have now.

But let's say we admit 100 highly-educated foreigners, all of whom have or can easily get new jobs in the growing technology industries. That reduces the unemployment rate to 8.3%. That's about the unemployment rate in Texas, which may tell you a lot about how Rick Perry created jobs in Texas.

The missing fact is we still have done nothing for the 91 unemployed Americans, even if the unemployment "rate" is down from 9.1% to 8.3%. But let's say these 100 immigrants are entrepreneurial. Maybe 10 of them are able to hire 5 Americans each or 25 of them are able to hire 2 Americans each, or some combination thereof, for a total of 50 new jobs for Americans. That reduces the number of unemployed Americans from 91 to 41, and brings the unemployment rate down to 3.7%.

American workers employed 909 909 959
American workers unemployed 91 91 41
Foreign workers employed in U.S. 0 100 100
Total workers 1,000 1,100 1,100
Unemployment rate 9.1% 8.3% 3.7%

Of course, I made these numbers up. In a nation of 300 million people, we'd have to let in lots and lots of foreign workers to make these numbers work. In 2010 there were 40 million foreign-born people in the U.S. Many are here legally but not all of them, not all are highly educated, and not all are employed. Oh.

Koch Brothers Promise to Give Barack Hussein Obama "The Mother of All Wars" in 2012

2011-09-06T22:39:00.000-04:00

Or something like that, according to Brad Friedman at Mother Jones. He's got audio from June 26, 2011 quoting Charles Koch saying:

But we've been talking about - we have Saddam Hussein, this is the Mother of All Wars we've got in the next 18 months, for the life or death of this country.

So Jimmy Hoffa was not declaring war in his controversial Labor Day speech yesterday, he was acknowledging a war that had already been declared.

"We didn't start this war – the right wing did."

Or something like that.

Aside from the martial rhetoric in politics being so asinine so much of the time, I don't mind it as long as no one is getting hurt. Gabby Giffords doesn't count as her assailant was crazy (i.e. alleged assailant is allegedly crazy) and not motivated by some politican's speech.

Would a war of attrition between the loud-mouthed political warmongers on both sides, leaving them both broke and defeated be too much to hope for? Yes, it would. But a guy can hope. Sometimes things do change.

Jimmy Hoffa Declares War on the Tea Party

2011-09-06T02:34:00.002-04:00

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Jimmy Hoffa, Jr., head of the Teamsters Union, rallied his troops for President Obama at a Labor Day rally in Detroit:

We got to keep an eye on the battle that we face: The war on workers. And you see it everywhere, it is the Tea Party. And you know, there is only one way to beat and win that war. The one thing about working people is we like a good fight. And you know what? They've got a war, they got a war with us and there's only going to be one winner. It's going to be the workers of Michigan, and America. We're going to win that war.

President Obama, this is your army. We are ready to march. And President Obama, we want one thing: jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs. That's what we're going to tell him.

When he's sees what what we're doing here, he will be inspired. But he needs help. And you know what, everybody here's got a vote. If we go back, and keep the eye on the prize. Let's take these sons of bitches out and give America back to an America where we belong.

Hoffa clamored for jobs not to save health care reform, it should be noted. And it's also noteworthy that the Democrats are increasingly not running against the "evil Republican Party" but against the "evil Tea Party."

About the Teamsters and sons of bitches, it takes one to know one.

Debunking Myths About Capitalism, the New Deal, Entrepreneurship, Equal Pay, Immigration, Sweatshops

2011-09-05T23:03:00.000-04:00

Some provocative thinking from academia, courtesy of LearnLiberty.org:

Capitalism is anti-business and pro-consumer

Neither the New Deal nor World War II ended the Great Depression

Governments print money, entrepreneurs make money

Women earn less because they have less career ambition

Immigration is good

Sweatshops bring higher wages to the third world

Fox Poll Hypes Perry and Romney, Downgrades Palin and Bachmann

2011-09-05T00:58:00.002-04:00

Fox News has a poll out of GOP voters interviewed August 29-31. In the big Republican field, most of the candidates are struggling for relevancy.

Support for Republican Candidate	Among Announced Candidates	Among All Candidates	Pickup from Unannounced Candidates	Too Extreme to Seriously Consider
Rick Perry	29	26	3	14
Mitt Romney	22	18	4	4
Sarah Palin	-	8	-	12
Ron Paul	8	7	1	10
Michele Bachmann	8	4	4	18
Rudy Giuliani	-	4	-	-
Herman Cain	6	4	2	3
Mike Huckabee	-	4	-	-
Newt Gingrich	3	3	0	5
Rick Santorum	4	3	1	3
Chris Christie	-	2	-	-
Jon Huntsman	1	1	0	2
Gary Johnson	0	1	-1	-
Buddy Roemer	1	1	0	-

Bad news for Rick Perry: He's in first place but many people consider him too extreme. That will happen when you call the Federal Reserve Chairman appointed by your own political mentor "treasonous."

Bad news for Mitt Romney: This poll confirms Gallup that he is now in second place. But, that takes the pressure off and puts it on Perry going into the first of the fall debates this Wednesday.

Bad news for Michele Bachmann: She would lose up to half her support if Sarah Palin entered the race. And she's in danger of slipping behind Ron Paul, despite her Iowa straw poll win over him in August.

Good news for Sarah Palin: She would come into the race in third position, should she decide to stop running by not running and officially enter the race. Also, people now consider Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Ron Paul (if they know who he is) more extreme. That helps position Sarah Palin for a political future in 2016 or 2020.

Bad news for Sarah Palin: Fox News asked if Sarah Palin should enter the race and 74% of respondents said no. Sarah's response over the weekend at a Tea Party event in Iowa was characteristically dismissive:

"Polls? Nah... they're for strippers and cross country skiers."

Too bad Fox didn't ask people if Rick Perry or Mitt Romney or any of the other candidates should get out of the race. But the point of this poll was to marginalize Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann by painting one as too late and the other as too extreme.

Want a Job? Move to North Dakota

2011-09-04T20:27:00.006-04:00

As of July 2011, 12.9% of Nevada workers are unemployed. Only 3.3% are unemployed in North Dakota, a rate that is below normal levels. The best way to find a job in this economy may be to move to North Dakota.

Rick Perry made much of his job creation skills in his recent entry to the Presidential race. That may be, but the 8.4% unemployment rate in Texas is not that much less than the 9.1% rate for the U.S. as a whole. Twenty-six states (including the states of seven of his Republican rivals) can show better numbers.

Candidate	State	Rate
Gary Johnson	New Mexico	6.7
Michelle Bachmann	Minnesota	7.2
Jon Huntsman	Utah	7.5
Mitt Romney	Massachusetts	7.6
Buddy Roemer	Louisiana	7.6
Sarah Palin	Alaska	7.7
Rick Santorum	Pennsylvania	7.8
Ron Paul	Texas	8.4
Rick Perry	Texas	8.4
Herman Cain	Georgia	10.1
New Gingrich	Georgia	10.1
Thad McCotter	Michigan	10.9
Fred Karger	California	12.0

The biggest probem is that the state of California is dragging the country down, and is taking the Mountain West with it. The South is another problem region, with southern states littering the bottom of the unemployment list.

Don't want to move to North Dakota? You can pick almost any state on the Great Plains and improve your odds of employment. Well, maybe not Texas, but only West Texas is really on the plains.

Below is the complete list of unemployment rates by State:

Rank	State	Rate
1	North Dakota	3.3
2	Nebraska	4.1
3	South Dakota	4.7
4	New Hampshire	5.2
5	Oklahoma	5.5
6	Vermont	5.7
7	Wyoming	5.8
8	Iowa	6.0
9	Hawaii	6.1
9	Virginia	6.1
11	Kansas	6.5
12	New Mexico	6.7
13	Maryland	7.2
13	Minnesota	7.2
15	Utah	7.5
16	Louisiana	7.6
16	Massachusetts	7.6
18	Alaska	7.7
18	Maine	7.7
18	Montana	7.7
21	Pennsylvania	7.8
21	Wisconsin	7.8
23	New York	8.0
24	Delaware	8.1
24	West Virginia	8.1
26	Arkansas	8.2
27	Texas	8.4
28	Colorado	8.5
28	Indiana	8.5
30	Missouri	8.7
31	Ohio	9.0
32	Connecticut	9.1
33	Washington	9.3
34	Arizona	9.4
34	Idaho	9.4
36	Illinois	9.5
36	Kentucky	9.5
36	New Jersey	9.5
36	Oregon	9.5
40	Tennessee	9.8
41	Alabama	10.0
42	Georgia	10.1
42	North Carolina	10.1
44	Mississippi	10.4
45	Florida	10.7
46	District of Columbia	10.8
46	Rhode Island	10.8
48	Michigan	10.9
48	South Carolina	10.9
50	California	12.0
51	Nevada	12.9

American workers employed	909	909	959
American workers unemployed	91	91	41
Foreign workers employed in U.S.	0	100	100
Total workers	1,000	1,100	1,100
Unemployment rate	9.1%	8.3%	3.7%