Wednesday, April 6, 2016

April Will Be the Cruelest Month, for Ted Cruz

April is the cruellest month, breeding
Lilacs out of the dead land
Ted Cruz should be riding high off his win in Wisconsin last night, but his victory speech didn't sound it, and that's because he can smell the lilacs coming up in the Atlantic Coast primaries later this month. Forget the polls, here are the odds, according to Pivit:

State Date Delegates Trump Cruz Kasich
New York April 19 95 99% 1% 1%
Connecticut April 26 28 93% 5% 2%
Delaware April 26 16 92% 8% <1%
Maryland April 26 38 68% 32% <1%
Pennsylvania April 26 71 87% 13% <1%
Rhode Island April 26 19 92% 6% <1%
Indiana May 3 57 18% 82% <1%
Nebraska May 10 36 2% 98% <1%
West Virginia May 10 34 84% 16% <1%
Oregon May 17 28 20% 80% <1%
Washington May 24 44 17% 83% <1%
California June 7 172 58% 42% <1%
Montana June 7 27 2% 98% <1%
New Jersey June 7 51 97% 2% 1%
New Mexico June 7 24 27% 73% <1%
South Dakota June 7 29 7% 93% <1%

So Ted Cruz is likely to lose the next 6 contests. The month of May may be better for Cruz, where he is in line to win 4 of 5 states, unless his voters lose faith, which could very well happen under the crush of April's cruelties. If he can keep his voters motivated, we're off to the contested convention, with my calculations showing Donald Trump finishing with 1190 delegates, just short of the 1237 he needs to clinch before the convention. I have a theory about the contested convention: either Donald Trump will be the nominee or he'll get to pick the nominee.

The Democrats may have a contested convention too. Because of their super-delegate system, Hillary Clinton would have to win close to 60% of the elected delegates to win the nomination outright before the convention. But she's 2.4 million votes ahead of Bernie Sanders, even after her loss in Wisconsin last night, so I imagine she'll be able to hunt up enough delegates in the end.

Update 4/27/2016: Donald Trump now looks to have overtaken Ted Cruz in Oregon, Washington, and New Mexico which puts him on track in my ledger for 1277 delegates which is 40 more than he would need to clinch the nomination.